Top 10 Super Bowl LVIII Props Picks


I’ve analyzed the odds and uncovered my top 10 Super Bowl LVIII props picks for Sunday.

The San Francisco 49ers will play the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. There are hundreds of Super Bowl LVIII props to bet on, including player, team, game, novelty and more.

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Here are my top 10 Super Bowl LVIII props picks for the 49ers vs. Chiefs:

Super Bowl LVIII Player Props Picks

Here are my top two Super Bowl LVIII player props picks:

  • Patrick Mahomes Under 261.5 Passing Yards (-115)

In this season’s NFL playoffs, Mahomes has thrown for 262 yards (Dolphins), 215 yards (Bills) and 241 yards (Ravens). Since Week 8, Mahomes has thrown for 262+ yards in four of 12 games.

The 49ers are allowing 215.6 PYPG (13th). QBs have completed 65.5% of passes (T18) against the SF defense. Regardless of who wins, Mahomes will struggle to exceed this number with his WRs.

  • Arik Armstead Over 2.5 Tackles + Assists (-125)

Armstead has been limited by injuries this season. He has played in 11 games, including the playoffs and he has 3+ tackles + assists in seven of those games. He has had 3+ T+A in six of his last eight games.

Isiah Pacheco has had 24, 15 and 24 carries in the NFL playoffs. The Chiefs will want to establish the run game, which will give Armstead opportunities for tackles. Armstead also has five sacks on the season.

Super Bowl LVIII Props Picks – Touchdown Scorers

I have two touchdown scorer Super Bowl LVIII props picks for Sunday.

  • Christian McCaffrey to Score a Touchdown (-220)

This play has the worst odds out of my top 10 Super Bowl LVIII props picks, but it has been cashing at a high rate all season. McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 15 of 18 games this season. That means he has scored a TD in 83.3% of his games, while the odds (-220) have an implied probability of 68.8%.

McCaffrey has two rushing TDs in both playoff games. With 18 rushing TDs and seven receiving TDs on the season, the 49ers need him to score on Sunday. The Chiefs are allowing 113.2 RYPG (16th).

  • Travis Kelce to Score a Touchdown (-110)

Kelce is performing great in the NFL playoffs. After scoring just five touchdowns in the regular season, he has scored three TDs in the playoffs. Kelce has a TD in eight of his last nine playoff games.

Since 2018, Kelce has scored at least one TD in 14 of 18 playoff games. He’s coming off one of his best performances of the season, as he hauled in 11/11 targets for 116 yards and 1 TD against Baltimore.

Travis Kelce Super Bowl LVIII Props
Travis Kelce Super Bowl LVIII Props

Super Bowl LVIII Game Props Picks

Here are my top two Super Bowl LVIII props picks (game) for this category:

  • Will Either Team Score 30+ Points: NO (-135)

We have two of the best defenses playing in this game. The Chiefs allow 16.8 PPG (2nd) and the 49ers allow 18.4 PPG (3rd). The Chiefs have only averaged 22.1 PPG (15th) on offense this season.

The Chiefs are only allowing 13.7 PPG in three playoff games. They also haven’t exceeded 30 points in the playoffs. I’m banking on KC to continue playing great defense to cash this Super Bowl LVIII props bet.

  • Chiefs to Score 10 Points First (+105)

The 49ers offense has started slowly in both playoff games. The 49ers have scored one first half TD in each playoff game. The Packers and Lions both scored 10 points before the 49ers.

Kansas City are averaging 15.3 points in the first half in the playoffs. The Chiefs scored the first 10 points against the Dolphins and Ravens in the playoffs. This is one of my favorite Super Bowl LVIII props picks.

Super Bowl LVIII Team Props Picks

Here are my top two Super Bowl LVIII props picks (team) for this category:

  • Chiefs to Lead Time of Possession (+100)

The Chiefs have led time of possession in two of three playoff games. In the AFCCG, KC dominated ToP (37:30 vs. 22:30). The 49ers have led the ToP in one of two playoff games (led against the Lions).

A lot will depend on the run game. The 49ers allow 97.0 RYPG (5th) this season, but the Packers rushed for 136 yards (4.9 YPC) and the Lions rushed for 182 yards (6.3 YPC) against SF in the playoffs.

If Pacheco gets going on the ground, look for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to milk the clock.

  • 49ers Total Rushing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (+175)

The 49ers score a lot of rushing TDs. The 49ers are averaging 139.7 RYPG (7th) and 1.7 rushing TDs per game (T1). SF had two rushing TDs against GB and three rushing TDs against Detroit.

Brock Purdy has been playing well, but he only has one passing TD in each playoff game this season. If the 49ers are in the red zone, they’ll likely run, making this one of my top 10 Super Bowl LVIII props picks.

Super Bowl LVIII Props Picks – Novelty

Here are my top two novelty Super Bowl LVIII props picks:

  • Length of National Anthem Over 90.5 Seconds (-110)

Reba McEntire will be singing the national anthem at Super Bowl LVIII. McEntire has sung the anthem on numerous occasions, including Game 3 of the 1997 World Series, which lasted 87 seconds (1:27).

This is the lowest length of time in the last 17 Super Bowls, which is when sportsbooks started to offer this prop bet. Only one singer in the last 17 years finished the anthem in less than 90.5 seconds and that was Billy Joel in 2007. Since 2013, the fastest Super Bowl anthem was performed in 109 seconds (1:49).

  • Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer Over 22.5 (-115)

To conclude my Super Bowl LVIII props picks, I’m betting on the jersey number of the first TD scorer to be 23 or higher. That gives us numerous options, including McCaffrey (#23), George Kittle (#85), Kelce (#87) and Elijah Mitchell (#25). The only players we’re missing who have scored a touchdown in the playoffs are Brandon Aiyuk, Rashee Rice and Pacheco. I like our chances with McCaffrey and the two TEs.