2024 Super Bowl Preview (Line Movement, Injuries and Trends)
Super Bowl LVIII is here, and I will preview the game. We’ll examine injuries, trends, and insights.
The San Francisco 49ers opened as favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs. The point spread has seen some line movement. After the 49ers opened at -2.5 points, early action dropped the spread to SF -1 but it has since moved back to SF -2 at most Super Bowl betting sites at the time of publishing (Feb. 1st).
Over 75% of early money on the spread has been on the Chiefs, and the Chiefs are getting nearly 65% of the money bet on the moneyline market as well. The over/under money is almost split, and the line (47.5) has remained the same since opening. I’m sure the lines will continue moving until kickoff.
You can stay informed on the latest line moves at our Super Bowl LVIII odds page.
On the 2024 Super Bowl Preview
2024 Super Bowl Injury Report
The 49ers and Chiefs both released injury reports on Wednesday (Jan. 31st). The Chiefs are banged up, but most players aren’t at risk of missing the Super Bowl. The 49ers are relatively healthy.
On the 49ers, TE George Kittle (toe) isn’t practicing yet, but he’ll be fine. LB Oren Burks (shoulder) and CB Ambry Thomas (ankle) are both listed on the report but are expected to play next Sunday.
Kansas City will likely be without C Joe Thuney (pectoral), and DE Charles Omenihu (ACL) is out after suffering an injury against the Ravens in the AFCCG. DT Chris Jones, RB Isiah Pacheco, and WR Skyy Moore were all limited participants (LP) on Thursday (Feb. 1st). Jones and Pacheco should play.
2024 Super Bowl Betting Trends
These two teams don’t play each other often. This will be the first H2H game with Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy starting at QB against each other. KC are 3-0 (3-0 ATS) in their last three against the 49ers.
The Chiefs have won six consecutive games as an underdog, including against the Bills and Ravens.
During the 2022 NFL season, the Chiefs went 4-0 against the NFC West. The Chiefs were leading at the half in all four of those games, so targeting the Chiefs to win the first half could be a play to target.
Kansas City are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams above .500. The 49ers are on an 0-3 ATS run. The public and sharps are split on the game total. Sharp money has come in on the under. Kansas City has gone under in five of their last six games, and the 49ers have gone under in 11 of their last 14 playoff games.
Looking to target some Super Bowl novelty props? The coin toss has landed on tails in seven of the last ten Super Bowls, clear has been the winning Gatorade Bath color in four of the last five Super Bowls, and the National Anthem has gone over (time to sing) in four of the last five Super Bowls.
Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown in six consecutive playoff games and seven of his last nine games. Brock Purdy hasn’t thrown an interception in four of his five playoff starts. Elijah Mitchell has scored a touchdown in his last three games with at least one touch, including in the NFCCG.
Mahomes has thrown for 285+ passing yards in his last three starts against the 49ers. Travis Kelce has scored a TD in eight of his last nine playoff games. Pacheco has a TD in seven consecutive games.
Consider these Super Bowl betting trends if you plan on targeting player props.
The underdog is 2-1 (3-0 ATS) in the last three Super Bowls. Last year’s Super Bowl went over the total, but the four prior all went under the game total. Will these Super Bowl trends remain intact?
Super Bowl NFL Picks
Best Pick ATS
The Super Bowl matchup is set, and it will be the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in the biggest game of the year. This is a rematch of a game from four years ago, and the betting spread for this game has already shifted in a big way.
San Francisco was a 3.5-point betting favorite when the line was first announced, but things have shifted significantly. Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs is still the way to go, as they will win this game over the 49ers.
Best Moneyline Pick
Not only are the Chiefs going to cover the super small spread in this game, but they are going to win it outright. It’s hard to consider the Chiefs underdogs as they are only getting one point, but that is definitely the case with this one.
It’s just too hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, as they always seem to come up with the biggest plays when they need to get that done. Kansas City will win another Super Bowl, as they will control this game from the jump.
Best Total Pick
Looking at the total number of points is another great betting option for any game, but that’s especially true for the Super Bowl. Many people will look at betting the over in this game simply because some great offensive players are set to take the field.
This game could certainly go in that direction, but these are also two teams that can be dominant on the defensive side of the football. Twenty-four points is going to be enough to win this game, and that is why taking the under 47.5 total points is the pick to make.
Best Player Prop
There will be some great player props to check out for the Super Bowl, and focusing on the best players will always be a good idea. Travis Kelce is one of the best players in the league, and there are a number of ways to bet on him in the Super Bowl.
Travis Kelce just had over 100 receiving yards in the AFC Championship Game, and this will be another big day through the air. I bet on Travis Kelce to have at least 80 receiving yards in the Super Bowl as he finds some holes in the San Francisco 49ers’ defense.
Best Team Prop
There are a number of great team props to check out in the Super Bowl as well, and it’s a good idea to focus on the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is hard to ignore, but it’s actually going to be the defense that takes over the game.
Kansas City has been dominant on defense all season long, and they will be coming after Brock Purdy in this matchup. The Chiefs will rack up at least three sacks, which is a great team prop to check out.
Super Bowl Preview: Expert Picks and Predictions for the Ultimate Game
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NFL Super Bowl Preview FAQ
Where can I get expert Super Bowl picks?
Sports Hub is the best source on the internet for Super Bowl picks every year.
Which team has the most consecutive Super Bowl wins?
Seven teams have won back-to-back Super Bowl games (Packers, Dolphins, Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys, Broncos, and Patriots), but no team has won three consecutive Super Bowls.
Which team has the most consecutive Super Bowl losses?
The Bills appeared in four consecutive Super Bowls (XXV, XXVI, XXVII, and XXVIII) but lost all four.
Which team has won the most Super Bowls?
The New England Patriots (Boston) and Pittsburgh Steelers have both won six Super Bowls.
What are the easiest Super Bowl picks to win?
The moneyline (pick a team to win) is among the easiest Super Bowl picks to make, but often tougher than alternate markets, such as props, as the teams in the Super Bowl are usually both very good. Analyze all of the Super Bowl betting markets to find the best value.