2024 PGA Mexico Open Predictions & Preview

Joe Berra

A field of 132 players will feature at Puerto Vallarta this week and we will be narrowing down the top contenders with our 2024 PGA Mexico Open predictions. 

Tony Finau heads the field as we venture down south to the Greg Norman-designed course at Vidanta Vallarta. Nicolai Hojgaard, Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo and Stephan Jaeger will also be popular names amongst Mexico Open predictions this week. 

Reigning champ Tony Finau is the current favorite for Mexico Open predictions

However, it’s outsiders who have excelled on the 2024 PGA Tour so far this season. Will we see another longshot victor? Or will one of the shorter-odds candidates win the tournament. Find out what we think in our preview below!

2024 PGA Genesis Invitational Results

Hideki Matsuyama won on the PGA Tour for the first time in over two years at the Genesis Invitational last weekend. He shot a magnificent 9-under in the final round to beat both Will Zalatoris and Luke List by three strokes. 

Despite the Japanese golfer being a big name, he was another longshot winner as he was priced at +7000 before the start of the tournament. All seven winners on the 2024 PGA Tour so far have all been outsiders. 

We’ve got Mexico Open predictions coming up for you this week as we try to identify the winner. You can find all of my golf picks via my handicapper page, Ashlee Kiddell

It’s been difficult finding many winners due to the vast amount of longshot victors this season. Let’s hope for better success this time around!

2024 PGA Mexico Open Preview

When: Thursday, February 22nd – Sunday, February 25th, 2024

Where: Vidanta Vallarta, Vidanta Nuevo Nayarit-Vallarta, Mexico

TV: Golf Channel / NBC / ESPN+

Field: 132 Golfers (Cut 65)

Purse: £8,100,000 (Winner gets $1,460,000)

Only three of the top 40 inside the Official World Golf Rankings will be in the field at the Mexico Open this week. However, there’s still 500 FedEx Cup points on offer and over a $1 million up for grabs for the winner. 

Reigning champion Finau will feel good about his chances here, especially with 2022 champ Jon Rahm not in attendance following his move to LIV Golf. The Spaniard was the main challenger for Finau in 2023 as he finished three strokes behind in second. 

The tournament officially became a part of the PGA Tour in 2022 and this will be the third time the event will be played since joining the tour. 

Vidanta Vallarta Club Course Information

Norman Signature Course – Vidanta Vallarta

Par: 71 / Yards: 7,456

Greens: Paspalum

Par 3s: 5 / Par 4s: 9 / Par 5s: 4

The course at Vidanta Vallarta was designed by two-time major champion Greg Norman and was opened in 2015. 

Due to the length of the course in Mexico this week, players who can hit a lot of length with the driver may have the upper hand. Strokes gained off-the-tee looks to be an important metric to consider. 

Putting is expected to be difficult at the Mexico Open due to the difficult greens. Players who have past success on paspalum could prosper, whilst those who have gained a lot of strokes with the flat stick are likely to perform well. 

Expert PGA Mexico Open Predictions for 2024

Tony Finau (+750) is the favorite to win the Mexico Open this week as he looks to defend his crown. That was the last time Finau won on the PGA Tour, too, as he beat Jon Rahm by three strokes. The 34-year-old finished inside the top 20 at the Genesis Invitational last weekend and has performed well on paspalum in the past. Finau clearly loves playing at the Mexico Open, finishing T2 in 2022. 

After finishing T5 at last year’s tournament, Emiliano Grillo is another top contender for Mexico Open predictions. The Argentine has been pretty solid so far on the PGA Tour, too, with recent form reading 43-7-20-14-22-44. 

Nicolai Hojgaard (+1350) has rapidly been rising up the world rankings of late. He finished second at the Farmers Insurance Open last month, also recording T31 and T39 finishes at Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational respectively. With a weaker field in Mexico this week, the Dane will fancy his chances at cracking the top 5. 

With odds of +2000, Stephan Jaeger is one of the top contenders for Mexico Open predictions. Like Hojgaard, he performed well at the Farmers Insurance Open, sealing a T3 finish. However, he’ll be looking for a response following a T71 finish at Pebble Beach in his last appearance. He has also finished inside the top 20 in both of his previous two attempts at Vidanta Vallarta. 

Can Stephan Jaeger secure his first win on the PGA Tour?

Top Contenders to Win the 2024 PGA Mexico Open 

Keith Mitchell is a solid ball-striker, proven with his ranking of fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee. His odds of +2000 make him one of the top contenders for Mexico Open predictions. His ranking of eighth in Greens in Regulation (GIR) will bode well for him too, and he’s not in bad shape after finishing T17 at the Phoenix Open last time out. 

Ranking inside the top 5 in terms of driving distance, Cameron Champ (+4000) has a good shot at performing well at the Mexico Open. He finished T8 here in 2023, and T6 in 2022 so enjoys playing on this course. Champ has excelled on gaining shots off the tee and ranks first for this metric. Nevertheless, his recent form is pretty abysmal. He has missed the cut in all four starts on the PGA Tour in 2024. 

Taylor Pendrith’s rank of 10th in driving distance proves he has the length to succeed here at the Mexico Open. He finished T9 in his most recent outing at the Farmers Insurance Open as well, and has solid experience on paspalum greens. 

Longshots to Win the 2024 PGA Mexico Open 

Brandon Wu (+4000) will be looking to continue his strong run on paspalum grass. He finished third in last year’s Mexico Open, and was T2 in 2022. Wu clearly loves playing on this type of grass, also finishing T3 at the 2022 Puerto Rico Open. However, he’ll have to bounce back after failing to make the cut at the Phoenix Open in his last appearance. 

Jhonattan Vegas (+6000) could be showing some good value. He ranks inside the top 30 for driving distance, and finished T22 at the Phoenix Open earlier this month. The Venezuelan has enjoyed playing on paspalum before as well, finishing second at the 2021 Puerto Rico Open. He also ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and GIR. 

With odds of +7000, Nate Lashely is another candidate that could be in with a good chance at performing well at Vidanta Vallarta. He finished T11 in the 2022 version of this tournament, and T3 in last year’s Puerto Rico Open. Lashley has proven a consistent performer on paspalum, also securing a T7 finish in the 2022 Puerto Rico Open. The veteran secured a T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open last month too. 

2024 PGA Mexico Open Predictions – Outright Winner

I’ve locked in three outright winners for my Mexico Open predictions here. I’ve gone for a shorter-odds contender, but have also followed the trend of outside winners with a longshot pick. 

Due to the competitiveness of the field, we can find some excellent value this week. Equally, it seems like a good idea to target some contenders to secure a top 10 finish. 

I’ve got a further two picks coming up to finish inside the top 10 in the next section below. 


2024 PGA Mexico Open Predictions – Top 10 Finish

Priced at +600 to finish inside the top 10, the value for Vegas to do so is too good to pass up for Mexico Open predictions. His driving skills are impressive and he has had past success on paspalum greens. His recent T22 finish at the Phoenix Open proves he’s in decent shape too. 

I’m also going for Champ (+500) to secure a top 10 finish. His strong ball-striking skills make him a very solid candidate, and he has finished inside the top 10 in successive appearances at the Mexico Open. He isn’t the best of form, but we’re expecting him to bounce back on a course he enjoys. 

Head on over to my handicapper page, Ashlee Kiddell, to gain access to all of my picks for Mexico Open predictions this week. 

Best Bet: Jhonattan Vegas (+600) & Cameron Champ (+500)

2024 PGA Mexico Open Odds

Here are the odds for the top 30 golfers at the 2024 PGA Mexico Open (subject to change):

  • Tony Finau (+750)
  • Nicolai Hojgaard (+1350)
  • Keith Mitchell (+2000)
  • Emiliano Grillo (+2000)
  • Stephan Jaeger (+2000)
  • Taylor Pendrith (+2300)
  • Thomas Detry (+2300)
  • Thorbjorn Olesen (+2800)
  • Davis Thompson (+3000)
  • Erik Van Rooyen (+3000)
  • Patrick Rodgers (+3000)
  • Jake Knapp (+4000)
  • Cameron Champ (+4000)
  • Ryan Fox (+4000)
  • Ryo Hisatsune (+4000)
  • Aaron Rai (+4500)
  • Brandon Wu (+5000)
  • Doug Ghim (+5000)
  • Jhonattan Vegas (+5000)
  • Mackenzie Hughes (+5000)
  • Mark Hubbard (+5000)
  • S.H. Kim (+5000)
  • Vincent Norrman (+5000)
  • Maverick McNealy (+5000)
  • Alejandro Tosti (+5500)
  • Michael Kim (+5500)
  • Sam Stevens (+6000)
  • Christopher Gotterup (+6000)
  • Austin Eckroat (+6000)
  • Alex Smalley (+6500)
About the Author
Joe Berra
Joe Berra
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Joe takes care of the bits and pieces that sometimes slip through the cracks of the sports world. Efficiency and consistency is what makes SportsHub.com different. JB helps keep Sports Hub’s content fresh and exciting, managing its many authors. From the New York area, Joe knew he had a knack for sports betting when his uncle was always asking him which side he was on as a young boy. His meticulous approach to the numbers formed his career path as a professional handicapper. Joe is sometimes called Jimmy Bagpipes, JB or Mr. B.