2023 John Deere Classic Predictions and Odds

Updated:

It’s time to finalize our 2023 John Deere Classic predictions before the start of the tournament. The first grouping will tee off at 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, July 6th 2023. The top PGA players won’t be in the field, as most take the week off to travel across the pond to prepare for the Scottish Open next week.

The highest ranked golfer in the field is Cameron Young (#19 OWGR). Nine players in the field are ranked inside of the top 50, including Russell Henley (#29), Denny McCarthy (#34), Sepp Straka (#37), Chris Kirk (#41), Emiliano Grillo (#42), Nick Taylor (#45), Taylor Moore (#47) and Seamus Power (#50).

Last year, the John Deere Classic featured just two of the top 75 golfers on the OWGR, so the field is a lot stronger this year. Eight previous winners are in the field, including last year’s winner J.T. Poston.

PGA visits beautiful Deere Run in Illinois

Five of the last 11 winners have been first-time PGA TOUR winners. Several of the top contenders will be looking for their first PGA win this week, including McCarthy, Young, Ludvig Aberg and Adam Schenk. Will any of these four golfers make the cut on my 2023 John Deere Classic predictions? Find out below.


2023 John Deere Classic Preview

When: Thursday, July 6th – Sunday, July 9th 2023

Where: TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois

TV: NBC, Golf Channel and Peacock (Streaming)

Field: 156 Golfers (Cut: top 65 and ties)

Purse: $7,400,000 (Winner gets $1,332,000)


Like last week, the John Deere Classic will require a low score to win. Since 2009, the winner has scored -18 or better, with 10 of the 13 winners scoring -20 or better. It’s going to be another birdie-fest. In the last five tournaments, the cut line has been -3, -4, -3, -3 and -2 to play on the weekend.

Let’s dig into the course information for TPC Deere Run this week:

  • Par: 71 / Yards: 7,289
  • Greens: Bentgrass / Fairways: Bentgrass / Rough: 4” Kentucky Bluegrass
  • Par 3s: 4 / Par 4s: 11 / Par 5s: 3

TPC Deere Run is one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR. It’s important to be accurate off the tee to avoid the thick rough, but the fairways are wide. Having monster drives isn’t required here. Approach shots and putting are the most impactful stats historically at this course. With 11 par 4s varying in length between 361 yards and 503 yards, par 4 scoring is also important to analyze.

Expert John Deere Classic Predictions 2023

Henley (+1400) is currently favored to win the John Deere Classic. He ranks 1st in driving accuracy, 10th in proximity to hole and 28th in scrambling, but he struggles on the greens (84th in putting average). He’s in excellent form, finishing top 20 in eight of his last nine starts, with a best finish of T4 at the Masters.

McCarthy (+1600) and Young (+1600) are next up in the market. McCarthy has gone 2nd (lost in playoff), T20 and T7 in his last three tournaments. He’s an excellent putter, ranking 4th in SG: Putting and 1st in putting inside 10 feet. He also ranks 4th in par 4 scoring average and 9th in scrambling. McCarthy is definitely a golfer you want to target when you make your 2023 John Deere Classic predictions.

Be aware of Young’s recent performance

Young is priced really short considering his recent struggles. He finished T7 at the Masters, but his best finish in his last seven tournaments is T32. His power off the tees (3rd in driving distance) won’t be a factor this week and he struggles on the greens (177th in SG: Putting and 72nd in putting average).

Where to Find the Best Value

You could make a good case for Adam Hadwin (+2800), Aberg (+2800), Schenk (+3000), Taylor Moore (+3000) and Emiliano Grillo (+3000) to win this week. Schenk is the most interesting out of the bunch.

Schenk has been boom or bust the last couple months. Since May, he has missed the cut in five out of eight tournaments, but he has finishes of 2nd (lost in playoff), T7 and 7th in three of his last five starts. Last week, he finished 7th with a score of -20 and he has two top 6 finishes here in the last three years.

My top longshot target this week is Lucas Glover (+6000). He just finished T4 last week with a score of -21. He has played this course a lot. He missed the cut here last year, but he won in 2021 and finished 10th in 2019 (John Deere Classic wasn’t held in 2020 due to COVID-19). Glover ranks 3rd in proximity, 9th in driving accuracy, 50th in SG: Approach to Green and 53rd in par 4 birdie or better.

2023 Outright Winner John Deere Classic Predictions

My advice is to play this week’s outright winner John Deere Classic market conservatively. There are a lot of shorter prices than a typical week due to the field being one of the weakest on the TOUR. There’s little room for error this week and consistency is imperative to win. The winner is likely going to need to birdie on more than 25% of holes, while avoiding bogeys on the tougher holes.

We have the Scottish Open next week and the Open Championship the following week.

I have three outright winner John Deere Classic predictions, login to access my plays (SWJ Sports).

Best Bets to Win: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICKS


MUST READ: 2023 WIMBLEDON UPDATE AND PICKS


2023 Top 5 Finish John Deere Classic Predictions

I’m backing Glover to finish in the top 5 at a great price (+1550) this week. After shooting two rounds of 69 to start last week, he shot a 64 (R3) and 65 (R4) to close out the tournament despite lots of rain. There is rain in the forecast for this weekend in Silvis, so the weather could end up playing a role. With momentum from last week’s T4 finish and a beatable field, look for Glover to be in contention on Sunday.

Best Bet to Finish Top 5: Lucas Glover (+1550)

2023 Make or Miss Cut John Deere Classic Predictions

This is always an interesting market to analyze. I generally target golfers to make the cut and that’s what I’m doing this week. While all of the top guys offer little value, I’ve found a golfer paying -140 to make the cut. This golfer has made the cut in five of his last six tournaments. He also ranks in the top 70 in GIR %, proximity, driving accuracy, SG: Putting, putting average and par 4 scoring average.

Best Bet to Make the Cut: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Sign-up to Sports Hub and search for “SWJ SPORTS” to access all of my John Deere Classic predictions. I’m still finalizing my head-to-head match-up plays for this week, but those will be released before tee off.

2023 John Deere Classic Odds

Here are the odds for all of the players in the field (subject to change):

  • Russell Henley +1400
  • Denny McCarthy +1600
  • Cameron Young +1600
  • Adam Hadwin +2800
  • Ludvig Aberg +2800
  • Taylor Moore +3000
  • Emiliano Grillo +3000
  • Adam Schenk +3000
  • Stephan Jaeger +3500
  • Seamus Power +3500
  • Keith Mitchell +3500
  • Eric Cole +3500
  • Chris Kirk +3500
  • Patrick Rodgers +4000
  • Nick Taylor +4000
  • Byeong Hun An +4000
  • Alex Smalley +4000
  • Beau Hossler +4500
  • Sepp Straka +5000
  • Ryan Palmer +5000
  • Matt Kuchar +5000
  • K.H. Lee +5500
  • J.T. Poston +5500
  • Taylor Montgomery +6000
  • Michael Kim +6000
  • Mark Hubbard +6000
  • Lucas Glover +6000
  • Joseph Bramlett +6000
  • Dylan Wu +6000
  • Doug Ghim +6000
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000
  • Chez Reavie +6000
  • Sam Stevens +6500
  • Adam Svensson +7000
  • Nick Hardy +7000
  • Callum Tarren +7000
  • Brendon Todd +7000
  • Kevin Yu +7500
  • Will Gordon +8000
  • S.H. Kim +8000
  • Nate Lashley +8000
  • Kevin Streelman +8000
  • Gordon Sargent +8000
  • Davis Thompson +8000
  • Carson Young +8000
  • Matt NeSmith +9000
  • Garrick Higgo +9000
  • David Lipsky +9000
  • Ben Martin +9000
  • Sam Ryder +10000
  • Justin Lower +10000
  • Akshay Bhatia +10000
  • Peter Kuest +11000
  • Greyson Sigg +11000
  • Chesson Hadley +11000
  • Cameron Champ +13000
  • Patton Kizzire +13000
  • MJ Daffue +13000
  • Chad Ramey +13000
  • Carl Yuan +13000
  • Andrew Novak +13000
  • Zecheng Dou +15000
  • Zach Johnson +15000
  • Zac Blair +15000
  • Tyler Duncan +15000
  • Trey Mullinax +18000
  • Scott Piercy +18000
  • Ryan Moore +18000
  • Robby Shelton +18000
  • Peter Malnati +18000
  • Kevin Tway +18000
  • Joel Dahmen +20000
  • Jimmy Walker +20000
  • Austin Smotherman +20000
  • William Mouw +25000
  • Vince Whaley +25000
  • Troy Merritt +25000
  • Sean O’Hair +25000
  • Ryan Gerard +25000
  • Michael Thorbjornsen +25000
  • Lanto Griffin +25000
  • Kelly Kraft +25000
  • Jonathan Byrd +25000
  • Harry Higgs +25000
  • Doc Redman +25000
  • Ben Taylor +25000
  • Adam Long +25000
  • Aaron Baddeley +25000
  • Augusto Nunez +25000
  • Satoshi Kodaira +30000
  • S.Y. Noh +30000
  • Russell Knox +30000
  • Robert Streb +30000
  • Nico Echavarria +30000
  • Matti Schmid +30000
  • Martin Laird +30000
  • Kramer Hickok +30000
  • Kevin Chappell +30000
  • James Hahn +30000
  • Henrik Norlander +30000
  • Harrison Endycott +30000
  • Grayson Murray +30000
  • Dylan Frittelli +30000
  • Chris Stroud +30000
  • Brice Garnett +30000
  • Brent Grant +30000
  • Andrew Landry +30000
  • Tano Goya +35000
  • Ryan Armour +35000
  • David Lingmerth +35000
  • Sung Kang +40000
  • Ross Steelman +40000
  • Kevin Roy +40000
  • Hank Lebioda +40000
  • Erik Van Rooyen +40000
  • Cody Gribble +40000
  • Cameron Percy +40000
  • Kaito Onishi +50000
  • Trevor Cone +50000
  • Scott Harrington +50000
  • Richy Werenski +50000
  • Matthias Schwab +50000
  • Martin Trainer +50000
  • Kyle Westmoreland +50000
  • Brandt Snedeker +50000
  • Austin Cook +50000
  • Yuto Katsuragawa +50000
  • Reid Martin +50000
  • Anders Larson +50000
  • Scott Brown +50000
  • William McGirt +60000
  • Wesley Bryan +60000
  • Trevor Werbylo +60000
  • Paul Haley II +60000
  • Michael Gligic +60000
  • Jim Herman +60000
  • Brandon Matthews +60000
  • Tommy Kuhl +60000
  • Tyson Alexander +80000
  • Ryan Brehm +80000
  • Jason Dufner +80000
  • Greg Chalmers +100000
  • Geoff Ogilvy +100000
  • Ricky Barnes +100000
  • Nick Watney +100000
  • Jonas Blixt +100000
  • Brian Stuard +150000
  • Brian Gay +150000
  • Max McGreevy +150000
  • Kyle Stanley +150000
  • Derek Ernst +150000
  • Marcus Byrd +250000
  • Derek Lamely +250000
  • D.A. Points +250000
  • Jay Giannetto +250000
  • Chad Collins +500000