Enjoy Thursday Night Football Picks, Odds and Schedule
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Expert Thursday Night Football Picks for Week 4
The Green Bay Packers (2-1 / 3-0 ATS) host the Detroit Lions (2-1 / 2-1 ATS) on TNF Week 4.
Here are some of the top storylines to consider when making your Thursday Night Football picks:
- Packers Revenge: The winner of this game will take the lead in the NFC North. Last season, the Lions went 2-0 (2-0 ATS) against the Packers, including a 20-16 win at Lambeau. GB were 5-0 in H2H games against Detroit between 2019-21, but they’ve lost three consecutive games.
- Watson, Jones, and Montgomery: Packers WR Christian Watson hasn’t played yet this season. Detroit RB David Montgomery missed Week 3 with an injury (thigh). Aaron Jones missed his second game in a row with an injury (hamstring). All three are questionable to play this week.
- Jared Goff on TNF: Goff is only 4-4 on TNF in his career, including 1-2 with the Lions, but Detroit just defeated the Chiefs to open the season on Thursday night. Goff has averaged 261.0 PYPG, 1.9 passing TDs per game, and 0.3 INTs per game (107.9 QB rating) on TNF.
Thursday Night Football Odds for Week 4
This line opened with GB favored, but the Lions are now favored to win on the road.
- Opening Odds: Lions +1.5 (+100 ML) vs. Packers -1.5 (-120 ML) / Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Current Odds: Lions -1.5 (-120 ML) vs. Packers +1.5 (+100 ML) / Over/Under: 45.5 Points
I expect this line to continue to fluctuate until kick-off on Thursday night. Early action has been split, but I expect the public to target the Lions after they dismantled the Falcons. If the Packers didn’t have a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 3, the action would be even heavier on the Lions.
Best Thursday Night Football Picks – Lions vs. Packers
Green Bay were losing 17-0 entering the fourth quarter in Week 3, but they scored 18 unanswered points to win the game by one point (18-17) and remain undefeated. Detroit held the Falcons to two field goals in a Week 3 win (20-6) at home, which was a good bounceback performance after losing to Seattle in OT.
The Lions offense has been performing better than the Packers, but that hasn’t translated into points. The Lions are averaging 269.7 PYPG (7th) and 111.7 RYPG (11th). The Packers are averaging 207.3 PYPG (T19) and 90.3 RYPG (T25). However, the Packers are scoring 26.7 PPG (8th), and the Lions are scoring 24.0 PPG (T13). Detroit need to finish drives and put more points on the scoreboard.
On defense, the Packers are allowing 199.7 PYPG (11th), 136.7 RYPG (T27), and 20.7 PPG (12th), while the Lions are allowing 225.3 PYPG (19th), 72.0 RYPG (6th) and 21.0 PPG (13th).
Detroit will be able to run the football with or without Montgomery. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs had 17 carries for 80 yards against the Falcons, who have been better at stopping the run than the Packers. I also trust the Lions’ defense more, as they’ve played a more demanding schedule and played well.
This total is a little low compared to previous H2H games, but I’m still backing the under in this spot. Both teams have questionable skill position players, so I expect a low-scoring NFC North matchup.
Last season, the two H2H games stayed under the total. These two teams combined to score 24 points in the first meeting in Detroit and 36 points in the second meeting at Lambeau. The Packers have gone over in two games this season, while the Lions have gone under in two games this season.
These teams will move the football, but I’m banking on drives stalling and ending in field goals. Neither team has had many explosive plays. Look for these teams to run the football early on. Both passing defenses have been good. I expect Love to struggle, as he did most of the game against the Saints.
We’re paying up here to get the under 5.5 touchdowns line, but a winner is a winner. The two H2H games last season generated six touchdowns (three TDs in each game). We could see five TDs in this game, and we’ll still cash this football wager. GB and Detroit have had one game with 6+ TDs scored this season.
With injuries on both sides, points will be at a premium. If Watson and Jones are out again, the Packers will struggle to make many points. Despite finding a way to win last week, Love was only 22/44 for 259 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Most of those passing yards were in the fourth quarter. The Lions held Desmond Ridder to 201 yards and 0 TDs last week. A similar stat line for Love wouldn’t shock me.
The Packers have been slow to start games this season. GB are 1-2 in the first quarter. They had a 7-3 lead against the Bears in Week 1 but lost the first quarter against the Falcons (3-0) and Saints (7-0). The Lions are 2-0-1 in the first quarter, outscoring opponents 17-7.
Remember, if the game is tied after the first quarter, this bet will be a tie (push), and we’ll receive our stake back. Detroit must jump out to an early lead at Lambeau to take the crowd out of the game.
Thursday Night Football Betting Trends and Results
- TNF Score Week 3: Giants (12) vs. 49ers (30)
The 49ers cruised to a win on TNF in Week 3. The 49ers covered the -10.5-point spread. The Giants had a chance to backdoor cover, which is why these big point spreads are so difficult to predict. The game went under the total, bringing the TNF over/under record to 1-2 on the season.
I went 3-1 on my TNF Week 3 picks, as I had the 49ers to cover, under on the game total, and the 49ers to score 25 points first. I lost on the player prop, as I had McCaffrey to rush for 100+ yards and score a TD. He scored a TD but rushed for 85 yards on 18 carries, which was short of the 100 yards he needed.
Here are the updated Thursday Night Football betting trends after three weeks:
- Favorites: 2-1 (1-1-1 ATS)
- Home Favorites: 2-1 (1-1-1 ATS)
- Away Favorites: 0-0 (0-0 ATS)
- Underdogs: 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS)
- Home Underdogs: 0-0 (0-0 ATS)
- Away Underdogs: 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS)
- Home Teams: 2-1 (1-1-1 ATS)
- Away Teams: 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS)
- Game Totals: Over (1) / Under (2)
How to Watch Thursday Night Football in 2023
Amazon Prime Video is the exclusive partner for Thursday Night Football in 2023. NFL fans will be able to watch TNF branded games on Amazon, NFL+ (mobile only) or Twitch (US only).
TNF games will also be aired live on local TV stations for the two teams competing (check local listings).
Breaking Down the Thursday Night Football Schedule for 2023
There are 16 “Thursday Night Football” branded games for the 2023 NFL season.
The 2023 Thursday Night Football schedule is packed with marquee matchups. First off, every team that made the NFL playoffs last season is playing in at least one TNF game this season.
There was also a rule change this offseason, which allows teams to play multiple TNF games.
A total of 15 TNF branded games will be played on Thursday nights. For the first time ever, the NFL will host a game on Black Friday (Friday, November 24th 2023) and it’ll use TNF branding.
There are also four NFL games on Thursday that aren’t using TNF branding this season. The first game of the regular season is on Thursday, September 7th 2023, but it’s a Sunday Night Football production.
The three games on Thanksgiving Day (Thursday, November 23rd 2023) aren’t technically TNF games either. These games will be broadcasted on FOX, CBS and NBC (Peacock) like in year’s past.
The NFL schedule can get confusing, but we’ll include all 20 games on our TNF schedule.
Complete 2023 Thursday Night Football Schedule
Here’s the complete 2023 Thursday Night Football schedule, including the four games that are played on a Thursday, but not using the TNF branding. In total, there are 19 games on Thursday and one game on Black Friday for the 2023 NFL regular season. The 2023 TNF schedule is stronger than it has ever been.
We’ll have Thursday Night Football picks for every single game this season.
|Week 1||Lions @ Chiefs||September 7, 2023||NBC|
|Week 2||Vikings @ Eagles||September 14, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 3||Giants @ 49ers||September 21, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 4||Lions @ Packers||September 28, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 5||Bears @ Commanders||October 5, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 6||Broncos @ Chiefs||October 12, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 7||Jaguars @ Saints||October 19, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 8||Buccaneers @ Bills||October 26, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 9||Titans @ Steelers||November 2, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 10||Panthers @ Bears||November 9, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 11||Bengals @ Ravens||November 16, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 12||Packers @ Lions||November 23, 2023||FOX|
|Week 12||Commanders @ Cowboys||November 23, 2023||CBS|
|Week 12||49ers @ Seahawks||November 23, 2023||NBC (Peacock)|
|Week 12||Dolphins @ Jets||November 24, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 13||Seahawks @ Cowboys||November 30, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 14||Patriots @ Steelers||December 7, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 15||Chargers @ Raiders||December 14, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 16||Saints @ Rams||December 21, 2023||Amazon Prime|
|Week 17||Jets @ Browns||December 28, 2023||Amazon Prime|
Thursday Night Football Picks FAQ
How many games are on the 2023 Thursday Night Football schedule?
Officially, there are 16 “Thursday Night Football” games in 2023, which includes the first NFL Black Friday games in history. However, there are a total of 19 NFL games scheduled on Thursdays this season.
Who is playing in the NFL Black Friday game in 2023?
The New York Jets will host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East matchup on Black Friday 2023.
Which NFL teams are playing on Thanksgiving Day in 2023?
While the three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day aren’t technically TNF games, they’re the most watched Thursday football games. In 2023, the Lions host the Packers, the Cowboys host the Commanders and the Seahawks host the 49ers on the Thanksgiving Day slate.
Which NFL teams play the most Thursday Night Football games in 2023?
The Bears, Saints, Steelers, Jets will play in two TNF branded games this season. If we include the four other games played on Thursday, the Chiefs, Packers, Commanders, Cowboys, 49ers and Seahawks all play twice as well. The Lions will play three games on Thursday during the 2023 NFL season.
Where can I get winning Thursday Night Football picks?
Sports Hub is the number one destination for Thursday Night Football picks all season long. Our experts will be analyzing all betting markets to identify winning TNF picks every week during the NFL season.