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Analysis
Minnesota Wild vs San Jose Sharks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 6, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Wild moneyline (-256), medium confidence. The model gives Minnesota 78%; -256 breaks even at 71.9%.
- Minnesota allows a league-best 2.24 goals per game. San Jose allows 3.53 (26th) and scores 2.53 (29th).
- Projected goalies: Jesper Wallstedt (2.06 GAA, .920) vs Yaroslav Askarov (3.29 GAA, .887). Neither is confirmed yet.
- The Sharks have lost three straight by a combined 14-4, including 7-2 at Los Angeles on Wednesday.
The Minnesota Wild (11-3-3) host the San Jose Sharks (7-9-1) on Friday, Nov. 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Grand Casino Arena, on NHL Network. Minnesota is -256 to -278 on the moneyline across licensed books, San Jose comes back at +205 to +230, and the total sits at 6.5. The league's stingiest defense meets a team that has lost three straight by a combined 14-4. Our pick: Wild moneyline (-256), medium confidence.
How these teams got here
Minnesota leads the Central with 25 points and owns the NHL's best goals-against rate at 2.24 per game. The Wild are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 4-0-1 at home, and they won their last two on the road by a combined 9-3: 5-1 at Washington on Sunday and 4-2 at Philadelphia on Tuesday. They have had two days off since.
San Jose sits sixth in the Pacific with 15 points and a -17 goal differential. The Sharks are 3-6-1 in their last 10 and have dropped three straight: 5-1 to Ottawa, 2-1 to Calgary and 7-2 at Los Angeles on Wednesday. They allow 3.53 goals per game (26th) and score 2.53 (29th).
Both teams play again Saturday. The Wild host Tampa Bay and the Sharks visit Dallas, so tonight is the front end of a back-to-back for each.
Wallstedt vs Askarov in the crease
This is where the gap is widest. Jesper Wallstedt has started 15 of Minnesota's 17 games and is 10-2-3 with a 2.06 GAA and .920 save percentage. He is the projected starter, though not yet confirmed. San Jose's projected starter, Yaroslav Askarov, is 4-7-0 with a 3.29 GAA and .887 save percentage, and he gave up seven goals on 26 shots in Los Angeles. Alex Nedeljkovic (3.09, .899) is the alternative.
The shot share backs up the goalie edge. Minnesota takes 30.2 shots per game (4th) and allows 25.2 (6th). San Jose allows 30.2 (29th) and takes 27.4 (17th).
Up front, Kirill Kaprizov has 15 goals and 26 points in 17 games, and Quinn Hughes has 22 points from the blue line. Macklin Celebrini leads San Jose with 17 points in 15 games. Special teams are close: Minnesota's power play runs at 25.4% (8th) against San Jose's 23.0% (10th), and the penalty kills sit at 80.4% and 81.0%.
Minnesota's injury list is long
The Wild have five players on injured reserve: defensemen Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon, forwards Marcus and Nick Foligno, and goaltender Filip Gustavsson. ESPN lists return dates from Nov. 10 to Nov. 19, so none of them is expected tonight.
Two regular defensemen out is a real dent, and it puts more of the load on Hughes. The Gustavsson absence matters most for the schedule: with a back-to-back, the only other option in net is Calvin Pickard, who has an .833 save percentage in two starts.
San Jose is missing center Alexander Wennberg and forwards Igor Chernyshov and Quentin Musty, all on injured reserve.
Prediction: Wild moneyline (-256)
Pick: Wild moneyline at -256, medium confidence.
- The model makes Minnesota a 78% winner. At -256 the break-even is 71.9%, and the no-vig market sits around 69-71%.
- Goaltending: Wallstedt's .920 against Askarov's .887.
- Minnesota allows 2.24 goals per game (1st). San Jose scores 2.53 (29th).
- Form: the Wild are 7-1-2 in their last 10; the Sharks are 3-6-1 and on a three-game skid.
Shop the price. At -278, the top of the licensed range, the break-even climbs to 73.5%. That is still under the model, but the cushion is thinner.
The risk: the back-to-back. If Minnesota starts Pickard tonight and saves Wallstedt for Tampa Bay, the goalie edge shrinks. Check the confirmed starter before puck drop.
The total: 6.5 is a high bar for a Wild team whose games average 5.5 goals (94 in 17). We lean under (-122 to -125), but it is not a pick.
