Analysis
Wild vs Blue Jackets Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 18, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives the Wild a 65% chance, matching the -185 to -192 moneyline, at low confidence.
- Minnesota's power play converts 33.3% (2nd in the NHL); Columbus ranks 27th in power-play goals allowed per 60.
- Columbus is on a back-to-back after a 1-0 OT win Saturday; Minnesota has been off since Thursday.
- The Wild are without defensemen Faber, Spurgeon and Maatta; Kaprizov (illness) is expected to play.
The Minnesota Wild (5-2-1) host the Columbus Blue Jackets (3-3-0) Sunday at 6 p.m. ET at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, on MINNHL, Wild+ and CBJNHL. Minnesota is a -185 to -192 moneyline favorite with the total at 6.5. The hook: a rested Wild team with a lethal power play against a Columbus side on the second night of a back-to-back — but the price already says all of that. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Minnesota sits on 11 points through eight games, scoring 3.25 goals per game and allowing 2.50, a +6 goal differential. The Wild have won 10 of their last 12 home games and have been off since Thursday, so they arrive with two full days of rest.
Columbus is .500 at 3-3-0, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.50 per game (-4 differential). The Blue Jackets beat the Rangers 1-0 in overtime Saturday behind a 29-save shutout from Jet Greaves and a Kent Johnson winner, then traveled for tonight. That's a 65-minute game in the legs and a goalie change.
Minnesota's top line and power play vs a leaky Columbus kill
The matchup that decides this game is Minnesota's top unit. Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy have controlled 63.3% of expected goals at 5-on-5 and outscored opponents 6-0 together. Boldy is coming off a hat trick plus an assist on eight shots. Eriksson Ek has generated 3.6 expected goals but is shooting well below his career rate, which makes him a regression-upward candidate.
Then there's the power play: Minnesota converts 33.3%, second in the league. Columbus ranks 27th in power-play goals allowed per 60 and has struggled on the kill all season. Every Columbus penalty tonight is a real problem.
In net, Columbus is expected to go with Cam Talbot after Greaves' shutout. Talbot has been 2.1 goals above expected through two starts, but he graded near the bottom of the league by goals saved above expected last season. Minnesota's starter between Jesper Wallstedt and Calvin Pickard wasn't confirmed at the time of writing.
Minnesota's blue line is thin
The Wild's injury list is long, and it hits the back end hardest. Brock Faber (skull fracture) and Jared Spurgeon (placed on injured reserve Sunday) are out, and Olli Maatta is out with an upper-body injury. That pushes Daemon Hunt, Matt Kiersted and David Spacek into bigger minutes behind the Quinn Hughes–Jonas Brodin pair. Up front, both Marcus and Nick Foligno and Nico Sturm are on injured reserve, and starter Filip Gustavsson is out with a lower-body injury. Kaprizov missed Saturday's practice with an illness but is expected to play — the biggest single swing on the board.
Columbus is missing defensemen Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro (broken hand) plus forward Isac Lundestrom. Zach Werenski and Damon Severson anchor a top pair that will see plenty of Kaprizov.
How the line has moved
The moneyline has held in the -185 to -192 range. The total is the move worth noting: several books were dealing 6 earlier, and it now sits at 6.5 with the under juiced to -120 to -125. The market expects goals, but it's charging a premium to bet against them.
Prediction: no edge on Wild vs Blue Jackets
Our model makes Minnesota a 65% winner. At -185 to -192, the market implies roughly 65-66%. The model also rates this game low confidence, so there is no side worth headlining.
- Rest and schedule favor Minnesota: two days off vs a back-to-back after an overtime game.
- Special teams favor Minnesota: a 33.3% power play against a bottom-six kill.
- The blue line cuts the other way: three regular Wild defensemen are out, which is how a tired road team still generates chances.
- The price is fair: the model's 65% matches the market almost exactly.
Swing factor: Kaprizov. If the illness lingers and he sits, the case for Minnesota shrinks fast.
On the total: both teams have reasons to score (Minnesota's power play, a depleted Wild defense), but the move from 6 to 6.5 already prices that in. We'd pass there as well.
