Analysis
Vikings vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds (Monday Night Football, Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Buffalo about a 62% winner at low confidence, in line with the -172 to -179 moneyline.
- Best offense vs. best defense: the Bills score 33.3 points per game (1st); the Vikings allow 13.3.
- Carson Wentz starts for Kyler Murray (hamstring); his only other start was a 9-3 win at Chicago.
- The total has fallen five points, from 48.5 to 43.5–44.5.
The Buffalo Bills (6-1) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium (ESPN, ABC). Buffalo is a 3-point favorite (-172 to -179 on the moneyline) with the total at 43.5 to 44.5. It's the NFL's highest-scoring offense against its hardest defense to score on, and Carson Wentz starts for the injured Kyler Murray. Our call: no edge. The model sits right where the market does.
How these teams got here
Buffalo leads the league at 33.3 points per game and has hit 30 in three straight games. The latest was a 36-10 rout of Baltimore in which the Bills held the Ravens to 144 total yards. Josh Allen is 135-of-205 for 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, and James Cook has 707 rushing yards and seven scores. Per the AP, Buffalo has scored on 43 of its 70 drives that didn't end in a kneel-down.
The catch: the Bills allow 25.9 points per game, and five of their seven games have finished with 55 or more combined points.
Minnesota got to 6-1 the opposite way. The Vikings allow just 13.3 points per game but score only 20.0, which ranks 27th. Their first loss came last week, 19-15 at Detroit. The Lions ran for 230 yards, and Jared Goff hit Jameson Williams for the go-ahead touchdown with 4:35 left. Six of Minnesota's seven games have finished with 39 or fewer combined points.
Both teams last played on Nov. 1, so both come in on eight days' rest.
Josh Allen vs. the Brian Flores blitz
The game turns on Buffalo's offense against Minnesota's pressure. Per the AP, defensive coordinator Brian Flores sends at least one extra rusher on nearly three-quarters of opponents' dropbacks, a league-record rate since tracking began. It works: the Vikings have 25 sacks (2nd in the NFL), 12 takeaways and a +7 turnover margin. Andrew Van Ginkel leads them with 6.5 sacks.
Blitzing Allen is a gamble. His nine rushing touchdowns entered the week second in the league, per the AP, and one broken tackle can turn a sack into a first down. The pressure lands on a banged-up line, though: tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) didn't practice all week and is questionable, and so is Alec Anderson (ankle).
The ground game is the other pressure point. Minnesota was allowing under 100 rushing yards per game before Detroit's 230, and the season figure is now 116.7. Buffalo runs for 148.4 per game (3rd), and Cook against the Vikings' front is where the Bills can keep Allen out of obvious passing downs.
On the other side, Wentz makes his second start. The first was a 9-3 win at Chicago in Week 2 (11-of-20, 143 yards). For the season he's 23-of-39 for 276 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Buffalo's defense has 15 sacks, seven of them from Greg Rousseau, and gives up 97.4 rushing yards per game. That's a tough script for a Minnesota offense averaging 113.9 on the ground behind Aaron Jones (458 yards).
Who's missing, and why it matters
Minnesota ruled out Murray (hamstring), whom Kevin O'Connell calls week-to-week. Receiver Jauan Jennings (calf) and running back Demond Claiborne (knee) are also out. That leaves Justin Jefferson (28 catches, 335 yards, four touchdowns) as the clear first read for a backup quarterback. Safeties Theo Jackson (quad) and Jay Ward (knee) are questionable, which thins the back end against Allen's deep shots. Tackle Christian Darrisaw, Van Ginkel and cornerback Isaiah Rodgers have no designation, and the team expects them to play.
Buffalo ruled out receiver Joshua Palmer (hamstring). Dawkins, Anderson and defensive tackle Greg Gaines (calf) are questionable. DJ Moore (shoulder) and Dalton Kincaid (chest) carry no designation; both scored against Baltimore.
How the line has moved
The spread has stayed at Bills -3 since the open, apart from a stop at -3.5 midweek, but the price on Buffalo has grown from -105 to -114 to -118. The moneyline has moved from -155 to -172 to -179. The big move is the total: it opened at 48.5 and now sits at 43.5 to 44.5, a five-point drop that prices in Wentz and the Vikings' defense.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The reasons:
- The model matches the market. It gives Buffalo about a 62% win probability at low confidence. The break-even on -172 to -179 is 63–64%, and the no-vig price is about 61%. ESPN's FPI is higher on the Bills at 67.6%.
- Buffalo's case is real: 33.3 points and 404.6 yards per game against a backup quarterback.
- So is Minnesota's: home, 13.3 points allowed, 25 sacks and +7 in turnovers, against a defense that gives up 25.9 points.
- Swing factor: whether Dawkins plays. A Flores blitz against a backup tackle is how the Vikings steal this game.
Total: Bills games average 59.1 combined points and Vikings games 33.3. After the five-point drop, 43.5 to 44.5 sits right between those two numbers, so we're passing on it too.
