Analysis
Raiders vs Rams Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 7)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives the Rams 52%, well under the 63-64% their moneyline implies, and at very low confidence.
- The Rams opened -7.5 and sit at -3 to -3.5 after Adams, Ford, Turner and Grupe went to IR and Landman was ruled out.
- Las Vegas allows 27.0 points a game and gave up 108 in its last three, all losses.
- Puka Nacua (calf) is questionable after missing Friday's practice.
The Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) host the Los Angeles Rams (2-4) at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX, with the Rams laying 3 to 3.5 points and the total at 48.5. That spread opened at 7.5 before Los Angeles lost two defensive linemen, its tackles leader and Davante Adams. Our model makes it close to a coin flip, Rams 52%, at very low confidence: no edge on this one.
Two teams sliding into Sunday
Both sides arrive on losing streaks. The Raiders have dropped three straight: 30-27 to Kansas City, 45-17 at New England and 33-30 to Buffalo last week. That's 108 points allowed in three games, and it has dragged their season line to a perfectly even 162-162, or 27.0 points scored and allowed per game. Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the Buffalo loss, so the offense isn't the problem.
The Rams have lost two in a row by a combined five points: 37-34 in overtime to Buffalo and 18-16 to Arizona, a game in which the Cardinals kicked six field goals. Los Angeles has scored 22.5 points per game and allowed 23.0, a 135-138 split that says this is a .500 team in a 2-4 record. The Rams are 1-1 on the road; the Raiders are just 1-2 at home.
Per NBC Sports, Las Vegas is 5-1 against the spread this season and the Rams are 2-4 ATS.
Stafford's volume against a pass rush that gets home
Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with 1,794 passing yards, with 11 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a 91.7 rating. Cousins has been more efficient on fewer throws: 14 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and a 98.0 rating on 1,582 yards.
The trench matchup leans Las Vegas. Per NBC Sports, the Raiders rank 3rd in pressure rate (34.72%) and 10th in sack rate, while the Rams are 26th in sacks with 8. Without Adams and possibly Puka Nacua, Stafford may have to hold the ball longer against a front that already gets there.
On the ground, Kyren Williams has 393 yards and 4 touchdowns plus 30 catches. Ashton Jeanty has been grinding at 313 yards on 98 carries, about 3.2 a pop, but adds 26 catches for 251 yards. Brock Bowers (28-382-3) and Michael Mayer (28-266-1) give Cousins two tight ends to work the middle of a thinned-out Rams defense.
The Rams' injury list is the whole story
The line didn't fall four points by accident. Adams (hamstring) is on IR and out 6-10 weeks per the Rams. Defensive linemen Poona Ford and Kobie Turner are on IR, and kicker Blake Grupe's season is over, so Brandon McManus takes the kicks. Linebacker Nate Landman (concussion), the team leader with 51 tackles, is ruled out, with Eric Kendricks elevated from the practice squad.
Corner Trent McDuffie (groin) didn't practice all week and is questionable. Nacua (calf), who has 37 catches for 417 yards in four games, was limited Thursday and sat out Friday. Sean McVay called it "minor," but he's questionable too.
Las Vegas is close to whole. Bowers practiced fully Thursday and Friday and carries no game status. Quay Walker was full on Friday. Running back Mike Washington Jr. (foot/back) is questionable after missing two practices, and receiver Dont'e Thornton Jr. is out.
How the line has moved
The Rams opened as a 7.5-point favorite and are now -3 to -3.5, with the moneyline at -175 to -179 across licensed books. The total has gone the other way, from 46.5 to 48.5. The market has already priced in most of the Rams' injuries, which takes the obvious value off the Raiders.
Prediction: no edge
- The model doesn't back the favorite. It gives the Rams 52%, against roughly 63-64% implied by the moneyline, and rates its own call very low confidence.
- The Rams' defense is short-handed. Ford, Turner and Landman are out and McDuffie is questionable, against a Raiders offense scoring 27.0 a game.
- The Raiders' defense is worse on paper. Las Vegas allows 27.0 per game and gave up 108 points in its last three.
- The line already moved four points. At +3 or +3.5, the Raiders aren't the bargain they were at +7.5.
The swing factor is Nacua. If he plays at full speed, Stafford has his best target and the Rams' price looks fair; if he's limited, Los Angeles leans on Williams and Tyler Higbee against a top-3 pressure unit.
On the total, the Raiders' last four games all went past 48.5, but the Rams' depleted receiving corps and a new kicker cut the other way. No play at 48.5.
