.webp&w=3840&q=75)
Analysis
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 7)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives the Ravens 52% at very low confidence, close to the market, with Lamar Jackson questionable.
- The line swung from Ravens -3.5 to Bengals -1 to -1.5, and the total fell from 51.5 to 47.5-48.5.
- Baltimore runs for 151.5 yards per game (3rd); Cincinnati is tied for 23rd against the run but stuffs a league-high 23% of carries.
- Ja'Marr Chase averages 120.4 receiving yards vs Baltimore; Ravens S Jaylinn Hawkins is out and CB T.J. Tampa Jr. doubtful.
The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) host the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium on CBS, and the market has flipped: Cincinnati is now a 1- to 1.5-point road favorite with the total at 47.5 to 48.5. Baltimore was a 3.5-point favorite a week ago. The swing is Lamar Jackson's ankle, and he is questionable. Our model calls it close to a coin flip: no edge.
How these teams got here
Baltimore's 4-2 record hides a stalling offense. Jackson hurt his ankle just before halftime of the Week 4 win over Tennessee on Oct. 4 and has missed the last two games. Tyler Huntley went 1-1 in his place: 30 points in an overtime win at Atlanta, then a 13-10 loss at Cleveland in which the Ravens did not score after the first quarter. That was the third game this season without a Baltimore second-half touchdown. For the year the Ravens score 26.0 points per game and allow 22.0.
Cincinnati arrives rested. The Bengals are coming off their Week 6 bye after a 31-24 win at Miami in Week 5 that snapped a two-game skid. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes that day and Jordan Battle picked off two passes. Through five games the Bengals score 25.6 points per game and allow 21.8, nearly identical to Baltimore's profile.
Derrick Henry vs. a run defense in flux
This is Baltimore's path to winning. The Ravens run for 151.5 yards per game, third in the NFL, with 29 runs of 10-plus yards, second-most in the league. Derrick Henry leads the NFL with 130 carries and ranks fourth with 534 rushing yards, plus seven rushing touchdowns, tied for second. He is coming off a season-low 58 yards and a lost fumble in Cleveland, though.
The Bengals' run defense sends mixed signals. Cincinnati entered the week tied for 23rd against the run and gave up a season-high 217 rushing yards in Miami, yet it stuffs a league-high 23% of carries per Next Gen Stats, up from a league-low 10.2% last season.
The other side of the matchup favors Cincinnati. Burrow is completing 71.4% of his passes, the best mark among quarterbacks with at least five games played. Tee Higgins leads the team with 423 receiving yards, and Ja'Marr Chase has 289 yards with four touchdown catches, tied for the AFC lead. Chase's 120.4 receiving yards per game against Baltimore is the most by any player against a single opponent in NFL history (minimum 10 games), per the Bengals. Baltimore's answer through the air is Zay Flowers and his AFC-leading 471 receiving yards.
History cuts both ways. The Ravens lead the regular-season series 33-27 and have won five of the last six, including a 24-0 win in Cincinnati last December, the only shutout of Burrow's career. In his last visit to Baltimore in 2024, Burrow threw for 428 yards and four touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson's ankle and a thinning Ravens defense
Jackson was limited in all three practices and is officially questionable. He said the ankle is headed in the right direction, and head coach Jesse Minter said it will come down to how Jackson feels. If he can't go, Huntley makes his third straight start.
The defensive news is worse for Baltimore. Edge rusher Tavius Robinson, the team leader with 3.5 sacks, is out for the season with a pectoral injury. Safety Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) is out, cornerback T.J. Tampa Jr. (knee) is doubtful and defensive tackle Broderick Washington (ankle) is questionable. That leaves more on Kyle Hamilton's plate against Chase and Higgins. Center Cam Jurgens practiced fully after a concussion and carries no designation, which sets up his Ravens debut against Dexter Lawrence II.
Cincinnati's final report has no game-status designations. Tight end Tanner Hudson is on injured reserve.
How the line has moved
At licensed books the Ravens were 3.5-point favorites in mid-October with the total at 51.5. Today Cincinnati is -1 to -1.5, the Bengals' moneyline sits between -114 and -120, Baltimore's between -108 and even money, and the total has dropped to 47.5 to 48.5. That is close to a five-point swing through the key number of 3, a sign the market expects Jackson to sit or play limited.
Prediction: no edge
The model gives Baltimore a 52% win probability at very low confidence. The licensed moneylines put the Ravens near 48% once the vig is removed, so the gap is thin and the label says not to trust it. No edge.
- The quarterback call decides the price. A healthy Jackson and the -3.5 opener look a lot alike; Huntley and today's number do too.
- Baltimore's run game at 151.5 yards per game meets a defense tied for 23rd against the run that still stuffs 23% of carries.
- Chase's 120.4 yards per game against Baltimore now faces a secondary without Hawkins and likely without Tampa.
- Rest and health favor Cincinnati: off a bye with a clean report, while Baltimore lost its sack leader for the year.
- The series favors Baltimore: five wins in the last six, including the 24-0 shutout.
The swing factor is Jackson's mobility if he plays. On the total, the two teams average a combined 51.6 points, above the 47.5 to 48.5 range, but Baltimore's three games without a second-half touchdown explain the drop. We pass on the total too.
