.webp&w=3840&q=75)
Analysis
Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 7)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Denver a 69% win chance, and the moneyline already prices the Broncos at about 69-70%.
- Denver is 4-2 despite a -11 point differential, allowing 20.8 points a game while scoring only 19.0.
- Arizona has lost nine straight home games and is 0-2 at State Farm Stadium this season.
- Pat Surtain II (ankle) is questionable against Trey McBride, whose 49 catches are tied for the NFL lead.
The Denver Broncos (4-2) visit the Arizona Cardinals (2-4) on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium on CBS. Denver is favored by 4.5, at -227 to -238 on the moneyline, with the total at 43.5. The hook: Denver has won four of six while being outscored by 11 points, and Arizona has lost nine straight home games. Our model lands right on the market, so this is no edge.
How these teams got here
Denver's record is better than its scoreboard. The Broncos score 19.0 points per game and allow 20.8, a -11 point differential for a 4-2 team. They're 3-0 at home and 1-2 on the road, and they won ugly last time out: 17-14 over Seattle in overtime, with Bo Nix throwing for just 107 yards.
Arizona is 2-4, scoring 21.0 and allowing 29.7 per game. Both wins came on the road at SoFi Stadium, the latest an 18-16 win over the Rams in which Chad Ryland kicked six field goals, the game-winner from 43 yards as time expired. That snapped a four-game losing streak. At home, the Cardinals are 0-2 this year, and the AP notes their nine-game home skid is the franchise's longest since the move to Arizona in 1988.
Zach Allen against a patched-up Arizona line
The game tilts on Denver's pass rush. Zach Allen, a former Cardinal, leads the Broncos with 4.5 sacks, and Denver sacked Sam Darnold five times and hit him 17 times last week. A dozen different Broncos got to the quarterback.
Arizona's line is thin in exactly the wrong spots. Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is out for the season with a torn biceps, so rookie Jayden Williams starts there. Right guard Jon Gaines II is out, and Hayden Conner makes his first career start in his place. The line did allow zero sacks against the Rams, so it's not a lost cause.
Arizona's answer is to keep the ball. The Cardinals rank fourth in time of possession (32:05) and lead the NFL with 17 drives of 10-plus plays. Only eight of those ended in touchdowns, though, which is how you lose games while controlling the clock. Trey McBride's 49 catches are tied for the league lead, and Cardinals tight ends lead the NFL with 64 receptions.
On the other side, Nix has 1,049 yards, six touchdowns and a 60.3% completion rate, all on pace for career lows. He's still coming back from ankle surgery. Half of his touchdown passes went to tight ends.
Who's missing
Arizona's injury list leans on its backfield and secondary. Running back Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is out, so the Cardinals lean on Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight. Safety Andrew Wingard is out too. Budda Baker (groin/illness), who is tied for the team lead with five QB hits, and cornerback Max Melton (knee) are questionable. If Melton sits, Kei'Trel Clark gets more snaps.
Denver is without safety Talanoa Hufanga and edge rusher Jonah Elliss, both out with ankle injuries. Pat Surtain II is questionable with an ankle injury after a week of limited practices. A Surtain absence would matter most against McBride and an offense that wants to dink its way downfield.
How the line has moved
This line has bounced around. Early lines had Denver at -7.5, then -5.5 by mid-October. After Denver's 107-yard passing day it dropped to 3.5 at some books, and it has settled back at 4.5. The total fell from 45.5 to 43 before ticking up to 43.5. The market has steadily moved toward a lower-scoring game.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The model gives Denver a 69% chance to win, and the moneyline already prices the Broncos at roughly 69-70%. There's no gap to bet into.
- Defense vs. offense: Denver allows 20.8 points a game, nearly nine fewer than Arizona's 29.7.
- Home field isn't helping: Arizona is 0-2 at home and on a nine-game home skid.
- But Denver's offense is limping: 19.0 points a game and a quarterback on pace for career lows make covering 4.5 on the road far from automatic.
- Long drives cut both ways: Arizona's clock control shortens the game, and fewer possessions favor the underdog's number.
The swing factor is Surtain's ankle. If he's limited, McBride has room to work. On the total, two offenses averaging 19 and 21 points sit right around 43.5. We'd pass there too.
