Analysis
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans San Jose at very low confidence, and its 40% is far above the ~23% the licensed odds imply.
- San Jose's 16-goal striker Preston Judd is suspended; Dallas keep Petar Musa and his club-record 20 goals.
- Both teams have clinched. Dallas lead San Jose by 3 points with four games left; a Dallas win makes it 6.
FC Dallas (14-9-7, 51 points, 3rd in the West) host the San Jose Earthquakes (13-9-8, 48 points, 4th) Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, streaming on Apple TV. Licensed books price Dallas from -135 to -149, San Jose +300 to +330 and the draw +310 to +330. The hook: both teams have clinched, and San Jose's nine-match unbeaten run arrives without its 16-goal striker. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Both clubs are already in the MLS Cup Playoffs, so this is about seeding. Dallas sit three points ahead of San Jose with four regular-season games left. A Dallas win stretches the gap to six points with three to play; a San Jose win pulls the teams level.
Dallas clinched with a 1-0 win over Seattle, then took a 2-2 draw in Houston last weekend. Christian Cappis and Héctor Herrera scored before Petar Musa buried a stoppage-time penalty. Over the last five league games Dallas are 2-2-1. They have scored 55 and conceded 47, the most goals allowed among the top five in the West.
San Jose have not lost in nine straight league matches, but four of the last five ended level, including three straight draws against Colorado, Real Salt Lake and Nashville. The 1-1 with Nashville clinched their first playoff berth since 2023. Bruce Arena's side has the stingier defense: 42 goals allowed in 30 games, or 1.40 per match against Dallas's 1.57.
Musa against a back five
This one runs through Petar Musa. His 20 goals set the Dallas single-season record, breaking Jason Kreis's mark of 18 from 1999, and leave him second in the Golden Boot race.
San Jose have recently lined up in a 5-3-2: compact, happy to defend deep and break fast rather than build from the back. That shape is built to limit service to a lone target, and center back Daniel Munie is the man tasked with Musa. If Dallas can't pull that back line apart, the game drifts toward the draw San Jose have lived on lately.
The last meeting, in May at San Jose, went 3-2 to Dallas on a last-minute goal from Sam Sarver. Sarver won't play Saturday.
Suspensions shape both lineups
The official availability report takes a goal threat off each side.
- San Jose: Preston Judd is suspended for yellow-card accumulation. He has 16 goals, five in his last six league appearances, and scored the equalizer against Nashville. Nonso Adimabua, Darius Johnson, DeJuan Jones and Benji Kikanović are out, while Jonathan González, Niko Tsakiris and Timo Werner are questionable. That leaves the Quakes thin up front.
- Dallas: Sarver serves a red-card suspension from the Houston game, and forward Logan Farrington is out (lower body). Dallas list no one as questionable, and Musa is available.
Judd's absence matters more. San Jose lose their top scorer and their hottest player, while Dallas keep theirs. Schedule is the counterweight: Dallas play again Wednesday and then visit Kansas City, three games in seven days, so manager Eric Quill is expected to rotate.
Prediction: no edge
The model leans San Jose, but at very low confidence, and its number doesn't line up with the market. No edge.
- The price disagrees. The licensed moneylines imply about 55% for Dallas, 23% for San Jose and 22% for the draw once the vig is removed. The model has San Jose at 40%. A gap that big, at the model's lowest confidence, isn't one we'll headline.
- San Jose are short their scorer. Judd's 16 goals sit out, and the Quakes have drawn four of their last five even with him.
- Dallas have Musa. His 20 goals make him the best finisher on the field, and he converted a stoppage-time penalty in Houston.
- The defenses point the other way. San Jose allow 1.40 goals per game, Dallas 1.57, so the Quakes' compact road shape can frustrate a home favorite.
The swing factor is Dallas's rotation ahead of three games in a week. A weakened Dallas XI against a five-man back line is how San Jose steal a point.
On the total, the licensed line sits at 3.5 with the under juiced to -139 to -149. With Judd out and San Jose's recent run of 1-1 draws, the price already leans low, and we're not chasing it.
