Analysis
Puebla vs Monterrey Prediction, Picks & Odds (Liga MX Apertura Matchday 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model favors Monterrey at 61% with low confidence, and we pass on the result.
- Monterrey is 1W-3D-6L in its last 10 league road games, scoring 0.80 goals per game.
- Puebla has allowed 13 goals in 12 matches, second-fewest in Liga MX, but is winless in five.
- Rayados are 4-0-1 in the last five meetings and score 1.73 goals per game.
Puebla (4-4-4, 16 points) hosts Monterrey (5-2-4, 17 points) Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Liga MX Apertura Matchday 13, on ESPN and Disney+ Premium in Mexico. Monterrey is -123 to -125 on the three-way moneyline, Puebla +301 to +320, with the total at 2.5. Rayados bring the better attack and a five-match unbeaten run in the series, but they travel poorly and Puebla rarely gives anything away. No edge: we pass on the result.
How these teams got here
Puebla is on a five-match winless run: three draws and two losses, with no win since Matchday 8. The last five read 0-0 at Tijuana, 1-1 against León, 0-1 at Tigres, 1-1 against Atlante and 0-1 against Toluca. That's three goals in five games.
The defense is why Puebla is still in the race. It has allowed 13 goals in 12 matches, the second-fewest in the league behind Guadalajara's 12, per ESPN's table.
Monterrey is 8th with 17 points from 11 games, so it has a game in hand: the Matchday 7 trip to Querétaro, now set for Nov. 14 (per El Gráfico). Rayados beat Pachuca 2-1 last weekend, with goals from Diego Rossi and Jesús "Tecatito" Corona, after a 1-1 draw at América and a 4-2 loss at Atlante.
One point separates the clubs with five matchdays left. A Puebla win would lift it above Rayados, at least until Monterrey plays its game in hand.
Monterrey's attack against Puebla's low block
Monterrey scores 1.73 goals per game (19 in 11). Lucas Ocampos leads the team with five goals and two assists in nine matches, Rossi has four goals and three assists in 10, and Hugo Cuypers has three goals, per SI. Matías Almeyda's side can hurt you from three spots.
Puebla scores 1.00 per game (12 in 12) and allows 1.08. Its matches average 2.08 total goals; Monterrey's average 3.18. That gap is the whole total question.
Then there's the travel problem. Monterrey is 1W-3D-6L in its last 10 league road games, scoring 0.80 and allowing 1.70 per game (per Sportsgambler). Puebla is unbeaten in its last four home matches (per Informador), although its longer home sample, 2W-3D-5L in 10, is ordinary.
Lineups and availability
Neither club reported injuries or suspensions as of Tuesday (per Sportsgambler; SI's probable lineups list none either). SI projects Esteban Andrada in goal for Monterrey, Carlos Salcedo and Víctor Guzmán in the middle of the back line, and Rossi, Ocampos and Cuypers up top with Corona and Orbelín Pineda behind them. Andrada has started the last five league games, and Monterrey lost only one of them.
For Puebla, SI projects Ricardo Gutiérrez in goal behind Facundo Almada and Juan Pablo Vargas, with Luifer Hernández and Omar Moreno leading the attack. With both squads healthy, this comes down to form, not attrition.
The series has belonged to Rayados
Monterrey is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings, including a 4-2 win in Puebla in the 2025 Apertura and a 2-1 home win in April (per Mediotiempo). That history, plus the scoring gap, is why the price sits where it does.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Puebla vs Monterrey. Our model has Monterrey winning 61% of the time, above the roughly 55% that a -123 price implies, but it rates its own confidence low, and we don't headline low-confidence calls. Why we pass:
- The draw looks underpriced by the model. It gives the draw just 11%, for a Puebla side that has drawn three of its last five and four of 12 overall.
- Monterrey's road form cuts against the price. 1W-3D-6L in its last 10 away from home, with 0.80 goals scored per game.
- Puebla's defense keeps games tight. 13 goals allowed in 12 matches is built to drag this into a one-goal game.
- The case for Rayados is real too. 19 goals in 11 games and 4-0-1 in the series explain why they're favored.
The swing factor is an early Monterrey goal. Puebla has scored three times in five games and isn't built to chase.
On the total, the over is priced at -128 to -132 on 2.5. Monterrey's games run high and Puebla's stay low; if forced, we'd shade the under, but not enough to headline it.
