Analysis
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction, Picks & Odds (Premier League, Oct 18)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Arsenal moneyline (-179), medium confidence; the model gives the Gunners 74% against about 61% implied.
- Forest has 5 goals from 12.24 xG, the league's worst finishing, and faces the lowest xG allowed (6.65).
- Arsenal is missing Saliba and Hincapie, and drew 0-0 at the City Ground in each of the last two seasons.
Nottingham Forest (1-2-3, 15th, 5 points) host Arsenal (5-0-1, 2nd, 15 points) at the City Ground on Sunday, Oct. 18 at 11:30 a.m. ET on NBCSN and Peacock. Arsenal is priced between -160 and -179 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw near +270 to +290 and Forest around +440 to +480. The hook: Forest creates chances and can't finish them. Our pick: Arsenal moneyline (-179).
How these teams got here
Arsenal has won five of six league games, and the only blemish is a 3-0 loss at Brighton. The Gunners bounced back with a 2-1 win over Leeds, and per NBC Sports they have eight wins in nine matches across all competitions. They stand three points behind Manchester City at the top.
Forest is the opposite story. Oliver Glasner's side has 5 points from 6 games, sits just two points above the drop zone and lost 3-1 at Crystal Palace last weekend after creating eight big chances and scoring once, per Sports Mole. The 5 league goals are the joint second-fewest in the Premier League.
Can Forest finally finish?
This is the whole game. Per Squawka, Forest has generated 12.24 xG but scored only five times, a -7.24 gap that is the worst underperformance in the league. Its expected points (11.42) are nearly level with Arsenal's (11.99), which tells you the table flatters Arsenal and punishes Forest more than the underlying play does.
The problem for Forest is the opponent. Arsenal has allowed the lowest xG in the league (6.65), so the regression Forest is owed is least likely to arrive against this defense. Liam Delap leads the line with 1 goal from 2.16 xG, while Bukayo Saka has 3 from 4.59 and is joined by Noni Madueke and Kai Havertz in the expected Arsenal attack.
History is Forest's best argument. Arsenal has been held to 0-0 draws at the City Ground in each of the last two seasons, and Forest has lost just one of its last six home games against the Gunners. Arsenal, though, is unbeaten in the last six meetings with four straight clean sheets.
Team news that matters
Arsenal's back line is thin. William Saliba (back) is only training individually, Piero Hincapie (ankle) faces weeks out and Christos Tzolis (hamstring) is sidelined. Martin Zubimendi (ankle) is a doubt, though Mikel Arteta called him "much, much better." Losing Saliba and Hincapie is the main reason this isn't a bigger number.
Forest is without Igor Jesus (calf) and Nicolo Savona (knee). Nikola Milenkovic (knee) is back in training with a chance to play, and Morgan Gibbs-White is a doubt with a minor muscle problem. Gibbs-White leads Forest with 7 big chances created, so his status is the swing for the home attack.
There's also a schedule note: per Squawka, Arsenal travels to Bayern Munich in the Champions League three days later, so some rotation is possible.
Prediction: Arsenal moneyline (-179)
We're backing Arsenal to win in 90 minutes at -179. The SportsHub model gives the Gunners a 74% win probability, well above the roughly 61% the market implies once the margin is removed.
- Form gap: 15 points from 6 games against 5 from 6.
- The best defense in the league by xG allowed (6.65) faces the league's worst finishing team.
- Gibbs-White's fitness: if he can't go, Forest loses its top chance creator.
- Head-to-head control: four straight Arsenal clean sheets against Forest.
Swing factor: the City Ground stalemates. If Forest's defense drags this into another low-event game, the draw at +270 or better is a live outcome, and that's why our confidence is medium, not high.
On the total: it sits at 2.5 with the under shaded slightly. A tight, low-scoring Arsenal win fits the trend better than a shootout, but we aren't playing the total.
