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Analysis
UCLA vs Illinois Prediction, Picks & Odds (Friday, Nov. 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model makes UCLA a 76% winner, short of the ~79.6% the best licensed price (-390) requires.
- UCLA allows 14.1 points per game (10.4 over its last five); Illinois scores 28.4.
- The spread has dropped from UCLA -12.5 to -10/-10.5 and the total sits at 47.5 to 48.5.
No. 4 UCLA (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) hosts Illinois (6-3, 4-2) at the Rose Bowl on Friday at 9 p.m. ET on Fox. The Bruins are 10- to 10.5-point favorites (moneyline -390 to -400) with a total of 47.5 to 48.5. The tension: a UCLA defense allowing 14.1 points per game against an Illini team that has won four straight, and a line that has already dropped from -12.5. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
A year after winning three games, UCLA is 9-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney and chasing its first 10-0 start since 1998, per the AP. The Bruins are 5-0 at home and 4-0 on the road. They have won ugly (17-15 at Oregon, 17-7 over Wisconsin) and pulled away (34-20 at Minnesota last Saturday). The defense is the constant: 10.4 points per game allowed over the last five, including a 27-0 shutout of Nevada.
Illinois opened 2-3, losing to Duke (31-27), at Ohio State (42-19) and to Purdue (24-17), and has since won four in a row: 38-37 in overtime at Michigan State, 21-10 over Oregon, 20-17 at Maryland and 24-13 over Nebraska last Friday. During the streak the Illini have held opponents to 19.3 points per game. They get a full week of rest; UCLA played at noon ET on Saturday.
UCLA's ground game vs. Illinois' passing game
UCLA's identity is the run. The Bruins average 213.2 rushing yards per game at 5.3 yards a carry. Wayne Knight has 789 yards and 13 touchdowns and has scored in all nine games; one more sets a program record, per the AP. Illinois allows 131.2 rushing yards per game, so this is the matchup that should decide how comfortable the Bruins get.
Quarterback Ty Dieffenbach went from third string to 4-0 as the starter. His season line is modest (986 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT), but he threw for 303 yards and three scores on only eight completions at Minnesota. Aidan Mizell caught two of those passes for 150 yards.
Illinois' path runs through the air. Katin Houser has thrown for 1,955 yards with 16 TDs and 5 INTs, and Collin Dixon has 68 catches for 910 yards and 12 touchdowns. That passing game meets a UCLA defense allowing just 177.0 passing yards per game. Linebacker Sammy Omosigho leads the Bruins with 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks and is tied for the FBS lead with five forced fumbles, per the AP.
Who's missing
Illinois will be without wide receiver Jayshon Platt, ruled out on the Big Ten availability report. Running back Javari Barnett is done for the season after a lower-leg injury against Nebraska, per the AP, which thins a backfield already led by Aidan Laughery (615 yards). Backup quarterback Michael Clayton II is also sidelined.
The AP's game preview says UCLA will be without four players: starting right tackle Hall Schmidt, wide receiver Jalen Saint Paul, defensive lineman Ashton Sanders and edge rusher Ryan McCulloch. Losing a starting tackle matters most for a team that runs this much.
How the line has moved
UCLA opened at -12.5 and -500 on the moneyline. The licensed books now sit at -10 to -10.5 and -390 to -400. The total opened at 47.5 and is 47.5 to 48.5. The market has come toward Illinois, which matches the Illini's form. It also takes away much of the value on UCLA.
Prediction: no edge
Our model has UCLA winning about three times in four (76%, medium confidence), and the market agrees almost exactly:
- Price: the best licensed UCLA moneyline, -390, needs about 79.6% to break even. The model sits below that.
- Defense: UCLA allows 14.1 points and about 265 yards per game. That supports the Bruins winning, not necessarily covering 10.
- Illinois' form: four straight wins, 19.3 points allowed during the run, and 3-2 against the spread in its last five, per Fox Sports.
- UCLA's form: 5-0 against the spread in its last five, per Fox Sports, which is why the number is already double digits.
Swing factor: UCLA's offensive line without Schmidt against an Illinois front that needs early stops to keep Houser in the game.
On the total: 47.5 to 48.5 sits right on UCLA's season scoring average (47.7 combined points per game). UCLA's last five games averaged 35 combined points, and four of those five went under, per Fox Sports. The under is where the numbers point, but not by enough to headline.
