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Analysis
Southern Miss vs James Madison Prediction, Picks & Odds (Thursday, Nov. 5)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives JMU 83%, below the roughly 86% priced into the best licensed moneyline (-625).
- JMU runs for 202 yards a game (23rd); Southern Miss allows 223.4 rushing yards a game, 136th in FBS.
- JMU is without leading rusher George Pettaway (812 yards, 8 TDs), out per the Sun Belt availability report.
- JMU games average 58.0 total points and Southern Miss games 57.9, right on the 57.5–58 total.
James Madison (7-2, 4-2 Sun Belt) visits Southern Miss (3-5, 2-2) on Thursday at 8 PM ET at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, live on ESPN2. The Dukes are 14.5- to 15-point favorites with a total of 57.5–58. JMU's ground game meets one of the worst run defenses in FBS, but the Dukes arrive off two straight overtime losses and without their leading rusher. Our call: no edge — the model's 83% for JMU trails the market's price.
How these teams got here
JMU looked like the class of the Sun Belt East for seven weeks. The Dukes started 7-0, including a 20-13 win over Liberty and road wins at San Diego State, Old Dominion and Georgia Southern. Then came back-to-back overtime losses: 34-31 at App State on Oct. 22 and 24-21 to Troy at home on Oct. 29. Even with that skid, JMU scores 39.1 points per game (9th in FBS) and allows 18.9 (27th).
Southern Miss went the other way. The Golden Eagles opened 1-5, with blowout losses to Auburn (43-8) and UConn (48-20), before winning their last two: 35-31 over Louisiana and 35-21 at UL Monroe last Saturday. The season numbers still tell you where this team is: 26.9 points per game (77th) and 31.0 allowed (118th).
The schedule helps the visitors. JMU last played on Thursday, Oct. 29, so it gets a full week. Southern Miss is on five days' rest after Saturday's trip to Monroe.
JMU's ground game vs. a defense that can't stop the run
This is the matchup that decides the game. JMU runs for 202 yards per game (23rd). Southern Miss allows 223.4 rushing yards per game, 136th in FBS, and 432 total yards per game (129th).
The catch: George Pettaway, the Dukes' leading rusher with 812 yards and 8 touchdowns, is out. Seth Cromwell filled in against Troy and ran for 135 yards on 23 carries, so the run game kept producing without its lead back. Quarterback Camden Coleman (1,743 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs) threw two interceptions against Troy, and ball security is the cleanest path to an upset.
Southern Miss wants to run too. Steven Robinson has 728 yards and 9 touchdowns and went for 151 at UL Monroe, while Jamarice Wilder has gone for 154 and 104 yards in the two wins. JMU's run defense allows 116.8 yards per game (33rd), though. The Eagles' passing game, led by Landry Lyddy (1,326 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs, 57.7%) and receiver Mario Sanders II (600 yards on 44 catches), gets a softer target: JMU allows 235.4 passing yards per game (103rd).
Two Southern Miss numbers stand out against a 14.5-point spread. The Eagles convert only 30.9% on third down (133rd) and score on 72.4% of red-zone trips (129th). Stalled drives won't keep pace with an offense averaging 39 points.
The injury picture
Per the Sun Belt availability report, Pettaway (lower body) is out and receiver Noah Grevious is questionable for JMU. Receiver Za'Ron Collins, who missed the Troy game, is set to play. For Southern Miss, receiver Jaylen Himes (foot) is out.
Pettaway's absence matters more for the margin than for the outcome. JMU still ran the ball well against Troy, but the offense managed just 21 points in an overtime game. At quarterback, Lyddy has been the passer in both Southern Miss wins (21-of-38 against Louisiana, 15-of-30 at UL Monroe). Ethan Hampton, who was listed with a hand injury, did not play at UL Monroe.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The model makes JMU the winner, but not by enough to beat the price:
- The model trails the market. Our model gives JMU 83%. The best licensed moneyline, -625, implies about 86%, and the range runs to -675. ESPN's FPI is at 85.7%, closer to the books than to us.
- The matchup favors JMU. A 202-yard rushing attack against the 136th-ranked run defense is the biggest mismatch on the field.
- The form doesn't. JMU has lost two straight in overtime and is without an 812-yard back. Southern Miss has won two straight and scored 35 in each.
- The spread has come down. JMU opened at -15.5 and now sits at -14.5 to -15, so the number has moved a point toward the home side.
- ATS history is mixed. Per the AP, JMU is 6-3 against the spread and Southern Miss is 4-4.
The swing factor is turnovers. Coleman threw two interceptions in the Troy loss, and extra possessions are what a 14.5-point underdog needs to hang around.
On the total, the market has it right where the teams live. JMU games have averaged 58.0 combined points and Southern Miss games 57.9, against a total that opened at 56.5 and now sits at 57.5–58. No play there either.
