Analysis
Rice Owls vs Tulane Green Wave Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 11)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Rice 57% with low confidence, below the 60% to 63% implied by its -150 to -170 moneyline.
- The line flipped nearly five points: Tulane opened -1.5, and Rice is now -3 to -3.5 after the Green Wave's 60-10 home loss to Tulsa.
- Rice runs for 270.3 yards per game; Tulane allows 214.7 rushing yards per game and 50% on third downs.
- Rice is minus-8 in turnover margin, and Tulane is 1-5 when it loses the turnover battle.
Rice (1-8, 0-5 American) hosts Tulane (4-5, 2-3) Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET at First Community Stadium in Houston, streaming on ESPN+. The books now make the Owls 3- to 3.5-point favorites after Tulane opened as a 1.5-point favorite, a flip of nearly five points that followed the Green Wave's 60-10 home loss to Tulsa. Rice runs for 270.3 yards a game; Tulane gives up 214.7. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Rice's record says one thing and the market says another. The Owls' only win came against FCS Houston Christian, and they've dropped five straight: 16-14 to UTSA, 28-12 at East Carolina, 38-17 to Tulsa, 51-49 at Florida Atlantic and 52-23 at North Texas. The last two games show the problem: 103 points allowed in two weeks, and 34.0 points per game allowed on the season.
Tulane's slide is newer and louder. The Green Wave beat Memphis 31-17 and survived Charlotte 38-31 in overtime, then got buried 60-10 at home by Tulsa last Saturday. They score just 21.1 points per game, allow 29.2, and need two wins from the last three (at Rice, at South Florida, home to North Texas) to get bowl eligible, per The Roost. Crescent City Sports framed this trip as a mental test as much as a physical one for Will Hall's team.
Rice's option vs Tulane's run defense
This is the game. Rice runs a shotgun option attack under second-year coach Scott Abell and barely throws: 270.3 rushing yards and 93.2 passing yards per game. Crescent City Sports has the ground game fourth nationally.
Tulane is built badly for it. The Green Wave allow 214.7 rushing yards per game, which Crescent City Sports ranks 134th, and they've already seen this look once: Army's Cale Hellums ran for 223 yards on 38 carries in Tulane's 20-17 loss at West Point. Linebacker Dickson Agu leads the defense with 86 tackles, and Makai Williams has 4 sacks.
Third downs tilt the same way on paper. Tulane allows a 50% conversion rate (tied for 135th nationally, per The Roost), while Rice converts only 32%, last in the conference. Something has to give.
The counterweight is ball security. Rice is minus-8 in turnover margin (13 giveaways, 5 takeaways), and Tulane is 1-5 this season when it loses the turnover battle, per The Roost. On offense, Trace Johnson has thrown for 818 yards with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and he managed 69 passing yards against Tulsa. Johnnie Daniels (542 yards, 6.1 per carry, 6 TDs) and receiver Destyn Hill (36 catches, 445 yards) carry the load.
The quarterback question in Houston
Rice's most productive player may not start. Jacurri Brown leads the Owls with 686 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, plus 478 passing yards, but an ankle injury opened the door for freshman Gael Ochoa. Abell confirmed this week that Ochoa is his starter, per Crescent City Sports. Ochoa has 325 rushing yards on 42 carries (7.7 per carry) with 5 rushing touchdowns, and Rice put up 49 points at Florida Atlantic in his first start.
That matters because the option lives on the quarterback's reads. Brown's game status for Saturday has not been officially reported, so we've kept him out of the injury table. Neither school had posted an availability report when we checked.
How the line has moved
The move is the story. Tulane opened -1.5 with a total of 46.5. Now Rice is -3 to -3.5, with the moneyline at -150 to -170 (Tulane +126 to +140), and the total sits at 48.5 everywhere. The Rice moneyline was -137 to -142 on Friday, so the price has kept climbing into Saturday. ESPN's matchup predictor still has Tulane winning 58.5% of the time, nearly the opposite of the roughly 60% to 63% the Rice moneyline implies.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Here's why we're passing on a side:
- Our model doesn't clear the price. It gives Rice 57% with low confidence, below the 60% to 63% the moneyline implies, and we don't headline a low-confidence lean.
- The numbers disagree with each other. The books imply 60% to 63% for Rice; ESPN's predictor gives Tulane 58.5%.
- The matchup favors Rice up front. A 270.3-yard rushing offense against a defense allowing 214.7 is the biggest edge on the board.
- The résumé favors Tulane. Rice is 1-8, allows 34.0 points per game and is minus-8 in turnovers.
The swing factor is turnovers: a clean game suits Rice's clock-eating offense, while two or three giveaways hand a shaky Tulane offense short fields.
On the total, the climb from 46.5 to 48.5 follows Rice's last two games (100 and 75 combined points), but an option offense that converts 32% of third downs also shortens games. ESPN's forecast calls for 65 degrees with gusts around 21 mph. We don't have a strong number either way.
