Analysis
Oklahoma vs Ole Miss Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 11)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Oklahoma vs Ole Miss at 50/50 with very low confidence, below the ~57% to 60% Oklahoma's moneyline implies.
- Moved to Sunday at 1 p.m. ET after Friday's FAA ground stop kept Ole Miss in Oxford.
- Ole Miss scores 33.8 points a game, but Oklahoma allows just 19.2 and the Rebels are without RB Kewan Lacy and LB Keaton Thomas.
- Oklahoma opened -4, slid to -1.5 and is back to -2.5; the total fell from 53.5 to 48.5–49.5.
Oklahoma (5-4, 3-3 SEC) hosts No. 19 Ole Miss (6-3, 4-3) at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Memorial Stadium in Norman on SEC Network, a day later than planned after Friday's FAA ground stop kept the Rebels in Oxford. Oklahoma is -2.5 at every licensed book, with the total at 48.5 to 49.5. Ole Miss scores 33.8 points a game, but it comes off a 42-7 home loss to Georgia and plays without RB Kewan Lacy. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
The schedule changed overnight. Ole Miss couldn't leave Oxford on Friday night because of the nationwide ground stop, and the SEC said the Rebels' charter company couldn't handle a late departure, so the trip was pushed to Saturday afternoon, per ESPN. The conference moved the game from Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET to Sunday at 1 p.m., over the "strong objection" of Oklahoma athletic director Roger Denny.
Oklahoma has alternated wins and losses for five straight games. The Sooners beat Texas 27-24, lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky, won 23-15 at Mississippi State and got run over 42-25 at home by South Carolina. Then they went to Gainesville last Saturday and held Florida to 7 points in a 23-7 win.
That is the Oklahoma profile in one game: a defense allowing 19.2 points per game and an offense scoring just 22.1. The Sooners are 3-2 at home.
Ole Miss took the opposite road. The Rebels hung 52 on Vanderbilt and beat Missouri 31-3, lost a 34-27 shootout at Texas, then hammered Auburn 45-15. Georgia stopped all of it, 42-7 in Oxford last week. The Rebels are 1-2 away from home. Ranked No. 19 in the CFP rankings, they have three games left to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Ole Miss's offense vs. Oklahoma's front
This game hinges on whether Oklahoma's defense can do to Ole Miss what Georgia did. The Rebels gain 418.8 yards per game to Oklahoma's 338.4, convert 48.4% on third down (Oklahoma: 38.8%) and average 4.4 yards per carry to the Sooners' 3.2.
QB Trinidad Chambliss runs it: 2,359 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. WR Deuce Alexander leads the team with 48 catches for 669 yards and 5 scores.
Oklahoma's counter is pressure. The Sooners have 26 sacks (Adepoju Adebawore leads with 4), and the Rebels' line has allowed only 10. Something gives.
On the other side, QB John Mateer has thrown for 2,042 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and WR Isaiah Sategna III has 49 catches for 625 yards. But the Sooners' run game sits at 3.2 yards per carry, and Lloyd Avant leads with 394 yards. Oklahoma needs a short field more often than it gets one.
The injury report decides the margin
Thursday's SEC availability report listed 11 Rebels out. The ones that matter most:
- Lacy (388 yards, 5 TD) is out.
- LB Keaton Thomas, the team's leading tackler with 55, is out.
- OL Patrick Kutas and S Edwin Joseph are out.
- RB Makhi Frazier was added as questionable, so the backfield is thin.
- DE Kam Franklin is questionable and S MJ Preston doubtful.
Chambliss was listed probable on Wednesday and was off the report by Thursday, so he is on track to start. We found no updated report for the new Sunday date at the time of this update.
Oklahoma is missing pieces too. LB Taylor Heim, WR Trell Harris and OL Fred Hinton are out, and OL Ryan Fodje is doubtful. RB Tory Blaylock is questionable after running for 133 yards on 25 carries over his last three games (per Sooners Wire), and so are LBs Cole Sullivan and James Nesta.
How the line has moved
Oklahoma opened -4 with a moneyline around -185 and a total of 53.5. By Friday afternoon the spread had slid to -1.5, with one book making Ole Miss a 1.5-point favorite and the Sooners' moneyline near -112 to -115.
Since Friday evening it has swung back. Oklahoma is now -2.5 at every licensed book, the moneyline sits at -132 to -148, and the total is 48.5 to 49.5. The Sooners are still a smaller favorite than at open, and the total is four to five points lower.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Oklahoma vs Ole Miss. The reasons:
- The model is a coin flip. It has the game at 50/50 at very low confidence, below the roughly 57% to 60% Oklahoma's moneyline now implies. ESPN's matchup predictor goes the other way, at 57.4% for Ole Miss.
- Ole Miss has the better offense. It scores 11.7 more points and gains 80 more yards per game.
- Oklahoma has the better defense. It allows 19.2 points per game to Ole Miss's 26.0 and has 26 sacks to the Rebels' 18.
- The injuries cancel out the yardage gap. Ole Miss is missing its top rusher, its top tackler and a starting guard, on the road, where it's 1-2.
- Turnovers lean Rebels, at +2 against Oklahoma's -2.
The swing factor is Chambliss's legs. If Oklahoma's pass rush keeps him in the pocket, a Sooners offense averaging 22.1 points can win a low-scoring game. How the Rebels handle a day-late trip and a Sunday kickoff is a new unknown.
On the total, 48.5 to 49.5 already prices in a slower game after the drop from 53.5. ESPN's forecast for kickoff in Norman is 41 degrees with gusts to 18 mph and a 49% chance of precipitation, which also points low, but we don't see enough value left to play the under.
