Analysis
Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction, Picks & Odds (Friday, Nov. 6)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model's 77% for New Mexico matches the market, and the best licensed price (-390) needs 79.6%.
- New Mexico allows 11.9 points per game, best in FBS, and leads the nation at +17 in turnover margin; Nevada is 138th at -13.
- Nevada QB Carter Jones (arm) is out; AJ Bianco is expected to start while nursing an ankle injury.
- The line opened New Mexico -12.5 with a 43.5 total and now sits at -10 to -10.5 with a 37.5–38.5 total.
No. 22 New Mexico (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West) visits Nevada (3-5, 2-2) on Friday at 9:00 PM ET at Mackay Stadium in Reno, on CBS Sports Network. The Lobos are 10- to 10.5-point road favorites with a total of 37.5 to 38.5, down from 12.5 and 43.5 at the open. The nation's stingiest scoring defense meets a Wolf Pack offense down to a hobbled backup quarterback. Our call: no edge, because the model's 77% for New Mexico matches the market.
How these teams got here
New Mexico's only loss was a 14-6 grind at Oklahoma on Sept. 19. Since then the Lobos have won five straight, and they lead the Mountain West at 4-0. They score 35.0 points per game (27th in FBS) and allow 11.9, the best mark in the country.
The recent wins have been tighter, though. New Mexico has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last three games: 21-10 at Hawaii, 21-16 over North Dakota State and 21-16 at San José State last Saturday. Toa Fa'avae threw three interceptions in that last one, and Kiefer Sibley bailed him out with 102 rushing yards on 12 carries.
Nevada is going the other way. The Wolf Pack beat San José State 28-13 on Oct. 24, then got shut out 27-0 at UCLA with four turnovers. Jeff Choate's team scores 23.0 points per game (102nd) and allows 22.6 (55th), and it is 2-2 at Mackay this season.
New Mexico's front vs. a patched-up Pack offense
This game turns on the line of scrimmage. New Mexico allows 258.1 yards per game (4th in FBS) and 81.6 rushing yards (5th). Per Nevada Sports Net, opponents average 2.6 yards per carry against the Lobos. Darren Agu leads the Mountain West with 12 tackles for loss and six sacks, and Brett Karhu also has six sacks.
The Lobos also take the ball away. They have 17 interceptions, most in FBS, with safeties Austin Brawley and Tavian Combs at four apiece. Their turnover margin is +17, first in the country. Nevada's is -13, which ranks 138th.
Nevada needs Dominic Kelley (588 yards, 5 TDs) and Herschel Turner Jr. to keep it in manageable downs, because the passing game ranks 127th at 169 yards per game.
On the other side, New Mexico runs for 213.1 yards per game (14th). Scottre Humphrey has 540 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Sibley averages 6.1 yards a carry. Nevada's pass defense is strong (156.1 yards per game, 8th), but its run defense ranks 98th at 162 yards allowed. Per SuperWest Sports, the Pack has given up 196.4 rushing yards per game in its losses. Nevada also ranks 130th in red-zone defense, allowing points on 95.8% of opponent trips.
A quarterback carousel on both sidelines
Nevada's passing leader, Carter Jones (654 yards, 3 TDs), will not play because of an arm injury, per the Mountain West availability report. Per Nevada Sports Net, AJ Bianco is expected to start while nursing an ankle injury. At UCLA, Bianco went 6-of-13 for 71 yards, and Luke Duncan went 1-of-8 for 36 yards with three interceptions. Tight end DJ Asiasi is out for the season.
New Mexico is short-handed too. Center Kaden Robnett will miss the game, so left guard Malik Aliane slides over to center, and linebacker Jaxton Eck sits for a fourth straight game. Receivers Shawn Miller and Massiah Mingo are also unavailable. The Lobos lost starting quarterback Jack Layne before the season and running quarterback James Laubstein for the year. Fa'avae (891 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs) has thrown seven interceptions in the last four games, per Nevada Sports Net. Nevada's secondary has just one interception, though, so it isn't built to punish him.
How the line has moved
New Mexico opened at -12.5 with a 43.5 total. It now sits at -10 to -10.5, and the total has dropped five points to 37.5–38.5. The moneyline has moved from -455 at the open to -390 to -450 across licensed books. So despite Nevada's quarterback news, the market took points off the favorite and priced in a rock fight.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. The model makes New Mexico a 77% winner at medium confidence, and that is the market's number too:
- The best licensed price on the Lobos, -390, implies 79.6%. Stripping the vig puts the books at about 76–78%, so the model has nothing to add on the moneyline.
- The turnover gap (+17 vs. -13) and Nevada's quarterback situation make New Mexico the rightful favorite. ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Lobos 81.5%.
- Laying 10 is a different question. The Lobos pass for 148 yards per game (131st), have scored 21 in three straight, and kicker Grant Glasgow is 6-of-11 on field goals.
- Per the AP, New Mexico is 6-2 against the spread and Nevada is 4-3-1, but that doesn't settle a number this close to the market.
The swing factor is Bianco's ankle. If he can't move, Nevada's offense could stall against this front. If he holds up, a slow, run-heavy game keeps the Pack inside the number.
On the total, two passing games ranked 127th and 131st justify the drop from 43.5. The market has already priced that in, so there's no total play either.
