Analysis
BYU vs Baylor Prediction, Picks & Odds (Big 12, Nov. 14)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes BYU about a 74% winner, while -300 to -330 needs 75% to 77% to break even.
- Kickoff is now 7 p.m. ET on Fox. BYU is -7.5 to -8.5 and the total has climbed from 47.5 to 50.5.
- BYU is 5-0 at home but threw four interceptions in last week's 28-20 loss at Utah; Baylor is +4 in turnover margin.
- Baylor is 2-0 under interim coach Joe Klanderman, with wins at UCF (41-9) and over Iowa State (42-31).
No. 10 BYU (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) hosts Baylor (6-3, 4-2) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, on Fox. Kickoff has moved back from the original 3:30 p.m. ET slot. The Cougars are 7.5- to 8.5-point favorites at licensed books, and the total is up to 50.5. BYU is 5-0 at home but is coming off a four-interception loss at Utah, while Baylor is 2-0 under interim coach Joe Klanderman. Our model has BYU at about 74%, just short of what the price demands: no edge.
How these teams got here
BYU has been perfect in Provo, beating Notre Dame 28-24, Arizona State 27-20 and Iowa State 24-10 there. Both losses came on the road: 39-31 at UCF on Oct. 24 and 28-20 at Utah last Saturday. Bear Bachmeier threw for 272 yards against the Utes but also threw four interceptions. The Cougars still slipped only one spot, to No. 10, in Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings. Per the Deseret News, BYU hasn't won the turnover battle in more than a month.
Baylor's season looked finished when Dave Aranda was fired on Oct. 25, right after a 17-6 home loss to TCU and a 25-24 loss at Kansas. The Bears have answered with a 41-9 win at UCF and a 42-31 win over Iowa State. Per the Deseret News, they're averaging 189 rushing yards per game since Klanderman took over.
The common opponents favor Baylor. The Bears beat UCF by 32 on the same field where BYU lost by eight. They won 55-19 at Arizona State, a team BYU beat by seven at home.
Both teams are 4-2 in league play. Per the Deseret News, the loser is all but out of the Big 12 title-game race. BYU also likely needs to win out to stay in the playoff picture.
The scoring profiles are almost identical. BYU scores 31.0 points per game and allows 19.8. Baylor scores 31.9 and allows 17.0.
The matchup: Bachmeier against a defense that takes the ball away
Bachmeier is the whole BYU offense: 2,022 passing yards, 13 TDs and 8 INTs at 62.7%, plus a team-high 395 rushing yards and 7 rushing scores. His top target is Legend Glasker (39 catches, 703 yards, 5 TDs). BYU converts 50.9% of its third downs, 11th in FBS, and that efficiency keeps its defense rested.
The opening is Baylor's pass defense, which allows 235.9 yards per game (107th). The catch is that the Bears take the ball away: they have 15 takeaways and are +4 in turnover margin, compared with +2 for BYU. A quarterback coming off a four-pick day is facing a defense that has been feeding off mistakes.
On the other side, DJ Lagway has 1,900 yards, 15 TDs and only 4 INTs, but he's completing just 53.7% of his passes. Gavin Freeman is his main target, with 69 catches for 852 yards. Lagway's legs have become the bigger story: he ran 13 times for 119 yards against Iowa State. That's a hard test for a BYU run defense allowing 102.7 yards per game (20th).
Discipline could also decide this one. Baylor ranks 117th in penalty yards (68.6 per game), and BYU sits 51st.
Who's missing
BYU's Wednesday Big 12 availability report lists tight end Will Zundel out, with tight end Roger Saleapaga and cornerback Evan Johnson doubtful. That thins the tight end room, which matters because Walker Lyons caught 7 passes for 97 yards at Utah. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and safety Crew Clark are questionable. Running back LJ Martin, who played through an ankle injury at Utah, is listed as probable.
We couldn't find Baylor's availability report in our sources. Both teams file a final report 90 minutes before kickoff, so check it before you bet.
How the line has moved
BYU opened at -7.5 with a total of 47.5 and a -305 moneyline. The spread dipped to -6.5 after the Utah loss, climbed back to -7.5 and has now moved to -8.5 at most licensed books, with one still at -7.5. The total is up three points to 50.5 everywhere. The BYU moneyline has firmed to -300 to -330, so the market has moved toward the Cougars since Thursday.
Prediction: no edge on BYU vs Baylor
No edge. The game is priced right where the numbers put it:
- Model vs. market: the model gives BYU about 74%. At -300, the Cougars need 75% to break even, and at -330 they need nearly 77%. The no-vig market sits around 72-73%.
- BYU's case: a 5-0 home record, a top-11 third-down offense and a run defense allowing 102.7 yards per game.
- Baylor's case: 2-0 under Klanderman, more lopsided results against common opponents (UCF, Arizona State) and a +4 turnover margin.
- The tiebreaker that isn't: BYU's 31.0/19.8 scoring profile and Baylor's 31.9/17.0 are nearly identical, so laying 8.5 asks a lot of the home team.
Swing factor: Bachmeier's ball security. A repeat of last week against a takeaway-minded defense flips this game. A clean day from him likely means BYU covers.
Total: BYU's games have averaged 50.8 combined points and Baylor's 48.9, right on the 50.5 number. ESPN's forecast for kickoff in Provo is 46 degrees with a 48% chance of precipitation, which leans slightly toward the under, but not enough for a play.
