Analysis
Arkansas vs South Carolina Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 14, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives South Carolina 72-73%, below the roughly 76% the best -320 moneyline requires.
- South Carolina runs for 205.4 yards per game (20th in FBS); Arkansas allows 156.3 on the ground (86th).
- Arkansas scores 20 points per game (121st) and has scored 17 or fewer in four of its six SEC games.
- LaNorris Sellers (ankle) is probable; RB Matt Fuller and WR Nyck Harbor are out on Friday's SEC availability report.
South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC) visits Arkansas (3-6, 1-5 SEC) on Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, on SEC Network. The Gamecocks are 7.5- to 8.5-point favorites, with the total at 51.5 to 52. The tension: South Carolina's offense should overwhelm a bad Arkansas defense, but LaNorris Sellers is playing on a sore ankle and two of his top playmakers are out. Our call: no edge. The model's 72-73% for South Carolina sits below what the moneyline already charges.
How these teams got here
South Carolina has won four straight since a 35-34 overtime loss to Kentucky on Oct. 3: 38-19 at Florida, 27-24 over Tennessee, 42-25 at Oklahoma and 17-9 over Texas A&M last Saturday. The defense carried that run, allowing 19.3 points per game across the four wins, well under its season mark of 23.4 (58th in FBS). The offense scores 34.7 points per game (24th).
Arkansas is going the other way. The Razorbacks have dropped two straight and four of their last five, with the lone win a 31-21 game at Vanderbilt. They lost 26-23 at Auburn last week. At home against SEC teams they're 0-3, beaten 45-17 by Georgia, 24-17 by Tennessee and 34-10 by Missouri. Arkansas averages 20 points per game (121st) and allows 27.4 (95th), and it has scored 17 or fewer in four of its six SEC games.
South Carolina's ground game vs a soft Arkansas front
This game turns on whether Arkansas can stop the run, and the numbers say it can't. South Carolina runs for 205.4 yards per game (20th), and Sellers is the engine: 637 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on top of 2,100 passing yards, 17 TD passes and 7 interceptions at 62.8%. Arkansas allows 156.3 rushing yards per game (86th), lets opponents convert 41.1% of third downs (99th) and gives up points on 88.6% of red-zone trips (105th). South Carolina converts 46.4% of its third downs (23rd) and scores on 90.9% of its red-zone trips (25th).
The Arkansas offense doesn't scare anyone. KJ Jackson has thrown for 1,853 yards, 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions at 59.1%, and he went 14-of-30 for 180 yards at Auburn. The Hogs run for only 112.4 yards per game (122nd), though Cam Settles gave them 100 on 16 carries last week. Chris Marshall (698 receiving yards) is the one reliable target. Arkansas' best path is to hold the ball: it averages 31:36 of possession (32nd) to South Carolina's 29:29 (89th).
Arkansas' real hope is turnovers. South Carolina's turnover margin is -7, 127th in FBS, which explains how a team this productive has lost three games.
Injuries reshape South Carolina's skill spots
The SEC availability report upgraded Sellers to probable on Thursday after he was questionable on Wednesday, and Friday's report kept him there. He hurt his ankle against Texas A&M, came back into that game, and scored a rushing touchdown late. Sophomore Cutter Woods is the backup. The supporting cast is thinner. Running back Matt Fuller (530 yards and 5 touchdowns on 94 carries) is out, and receiver Nyck Harbor (24 catches, 404 yards) went from questionable to doubtful to out on Friday's report. Receiver Nitro Tuggle and defensive back J'Zavien Currence are also out. Mazeo Bennett Jr. (38 catches, 497 yards, 5 TDs) becomes even more important to the passing game.
For Arkansas, defensive lineman Quincy Rhodes Jr. (team-high 3 sacks) is listed as probable. Tight end Maddox Lassiter and defensive back Braydon Lee are out, as they have been all season. Marshall was not on the report.
A hobbled Sellers matters more than any other name here. If the ankle limits his scrambling, South Carolina loses the piece of its rushing attack that Arkansas has the hardest time handling.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on this game. The matchup favors South Carolina, but the price already does too:
- The model doesn't beat the market. It gives South Carolina 72-73%, while the best moneyline on the board (-320, with the range running to -335) needs about 76%. ESPN's matchup predictor is at 77%, closer to the market than to our number.
- The matchup points to the Gamecocks. A top-20 rushing offense meets the 86th-ranked run defense, and Arkansas is 105th in red-zone defense.
- The roster points the other way. With Fuller and Harbor both out, South Carolina is short two of its top producers, and its -7 turnover margin gives an underdog a way in.
- The schedule spot. South Carolina hosts Georgia next Saturday, so this road trip sits between two big dates. That's worth noting, though nothing in the numbers proves a letdown.
- The line hasn't run away. It opened at South Carolina -8.5 and -340 and now sits at -7.5 to -8.5, so there's no late value on either side.
Swing factor: Sellers' mobility. If he runs freely, the Gamecocks can cover a touchdown-plus number. If he's limited and the turnovers keep coming, Arkansas can keep this inside the number at home.
Total: 51.5. South Carolina's games average 58.1 combined points and Arkansas' average 47.4, so the two profiles roughly cancel out and we have no play on the total.
