Analysis
Arizona vs TCU Prediction, Picks & Odds (Friday, Nov. 6)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Arizona 72%, below the 74.7% break-even at the best licensed moneyline (-295).
- Arizona is 4-0 at home this season, outscoring visitors 150-34.
- TCU allows 14.1 points per game (8th in FBS) but hasn't scored more than 22 in any of its last five games.
- The spread opened at Arizona -9.5 and sits at -7.5; the total is up from 44.5 to 46-46.5.
TCU (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) visits Arizona (6-2, 3-2) on Friday, Nov. 6 at 10:15 p.m. ET at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Tucson, live on ESPN. The Wildcats are 7.5-point favorites across licensed books, at -295 to -310 on the moneyline, with the total at 46 to 46.5. The tension: Arizona's sixth-ranked passing attack against a TCU defense that allows just 14.1 points per game. Our model and the market agree on the price, so the call is no edge.
How these teams got here
Arizona has been untouchable in Tucson: 4-0 at home with a combined 150-34 score against Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, Cincinnati and Iowa State. Both losses came on the road, 28-17 at BYU and 34-26 at Texas Tech last Saturday. Noah Fifita threw for 417 yards on 33-of-45 in Lubbock, and Isaiah Mizell caught seven balls for 182 yards, but it wasn't enough. For the season, Arizona scores 34.9 points per game (29th in FBS) and allows 18.9 (27th).
TCU is the mirror image. The Frogs trailed Kansas 13-0 at halftime and rallied to win 22-16. Jaden Craig went only 13-of-29 for 141 yards but ran 15 times for 87 yards and a touchdown. The offense hasn't topped 22 points in any of its last five games (13, 10, 17, 20, 22), and its season average of 23.3 (100th) is propped up by a 63-7 win over Grambling. TCU is 1-1 in true road games: a 21-13 loss at UCF and a 17-6 win at Baylor.
Both teams played on Saturday, so both come in on six days of rest.
Fifita against a top-15 pass defense
This is the game. Arizona throws for 324.1 yards per game (6th in FBS), and Fifita has 2,481 yards, 19 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions on a 74.1% completion rate. Mizell (675 yards, 6 TDs) is his top target. TCU's pass defense allows 174.6 yards per game (15th) and holds opponents to 31.4% on third down (22nd).
Neither team runs it well. Arizona averages 131.5 rushing yards (104th), with Kedrick Reescano punching in 7 touchdowns on 321 yards. TCU is at 114.6 (120th). That puts the load on Craig (2,207 yards, 11 TDs, 6 INTs, 65.1%) and receiver Kari Ashley (560 yards). Chase Kennedy leads Arizona with 6 sacks, and SI's TCU site flags the Frogs' offensive line after A.J. Ricker's dismissal.
The red zone could settle it. TCU scores on 76.7% of its trips (116th), and Arizona's red-zone defense ranks 5th at 70%. Arizona also controls the ball, averaging 32:14 of possession (23rd).
Who's missing
Per the initial Big 12 availability report dated Nov. 3, as relayed by SI's TCU site, TCU's backfield is thin. Jon Denman is out and leading rusher Jeremy Payne (429 yards) is questionable. Receiver Terry Shelton is also out. If Payne can't go, TCU's 120th-ranked ground game puts even more on Craig's legs.
Arizona has more names on the list. Receiver R.J. Mosley suffered a season-ending knee injury at Texas Tech, and cornerback Jay'Vion Cole, defensive linemen Kevin Moorer Jr. and Ezra Funa, and tight end Shane King are out. Safety Cam Chapa and cornerback Swayde Griffin are questionable, which matters if TCU tries to throw. Tight end Cole Rusk is listed as probable after missing five games. These are the early designations and can change before kickoff.
How the line has moved
Arizona opened at -9.5 with a -375 moneyline and a 44.5 total. The spread now sits at -7.5, the moneyline at -295 to -310, and the total at 46 to 46.5. So two points have come off the favorite, and the total has climbed by 1.5 to 2.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Arizona is the better team, but the price already says so:
- The model sits below the break-even price. It gives Arizona a 72% win chance. The best licensed moneyline, -295, needs 74.7%, and the no-vig market lands at about 72%. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Arizona at 73.8%, also short of that number.
- Home form backs Arizona. A 150-34 combined score at home is dominant, though it came against Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, Cincinnati and Iowa State.
- TCU's defense keeps games close. It allows 14.1 points per game (8th), which makes a 7.5-point margin harder to clear.
- Neither side covers often. Per the AP's game preview, Arizona is 3-5 against the spread and TCU 3-4-1, and the spread has already dropped from 9.5 to 7.5.
Swing factor: Payne's status. Without him, TCU's offense, already at 16.4 points per game over its last five, could stall against a top-five red-zone defense.
The total: 46 to 46.5 splits the evidence. Arizona's home games have averaged exactly 46 combined points, and TCU's last five have averaged 33.2, while Arizona's season games average 53.75. We pass on the total too.
