Analysis
Michigan vs UConn Prediction, Picks & Odds (Title-Game Rematch, Nov. 6)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Michigan vs UConn at 50-50 (very low confidence), while the market prices UConn near 73% after the vig.
- UConn has moved from -5.5 to -7.5 (-325), and the total has fallen from 146.5 to 141.5.
- Michigan gave up 21 offensive rebounds to Oakland; UConn allowed Gardner-Webb just 4.
- Michigan's 7-foot-2 Moustapha Thiam is expected back from illness; Brandon McCoy Jr. is out for the season (ACL).
No. 16 Michigan (1-0) and No. 4 UConn (1-0) run back last April's national title game Friday at 8 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston, live on TNT. UConn is a 7.5-point favorite (-325), up from -5.5 at the open, and the total has slid from 146.5 to 141.5. Michigan won the final 69-63, but the NBA gutted both frontcourts since. Our model calls it a coin flip while the market leans hard to UConn: no edge.
How these teams got here
Michigan went 37-3 last season and averaged 87.3 points, then lost its entire starting frontcourt (Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara) to the NBA and its coach, Dusty May, to the Dallas Mavericks. Mike Boynton Jr. now runs the program.
The Wolverines opened Monday with an 84-68 win over Oakland that was messier than the score. They shot 44% but went 7-of-34 from three, and Oakland grabbed 21 offensive rebounds and won the glass 44-42. Michigan made up for it inside with 48 paint points and 10 steals.
UConn went 34-6 and lost Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. to the NBA, then brought in 10 new players. The Huskies' opener was a demolition: 86-46 over Gardner-Webb, shooting 52% while holding the Bulldogs to 26%. UConn piled up 37 defensive rebounds and allowed only 4 offensive boards. It was Dan Hurley's 200th win at UConn.
Boston isn't a true road game for either side, but Hurley has said himself that UConn fans took over this building during the 2024 title run.
Point guards, snipers and two new bigs
Start at the point. Michigan's Elliot Cadeau was the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player and scored 19 in the title game. Silas Demary Jr. was the Big East's preseason Player of the Year. Neither scored much Monday: Cadeau had 7 points on 1-of-5 with 6 assists, 4 steals and 5 turnovers, and Demary had 5 points with 8 rebounds, 8 assists and 3 steals in 26 minutes.
The scoring came from the wings. Trey McKenney (17 points, 3-of-6 from three) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (17 on 7-of-11) carried Michigan. Braylon Mullins led UConn with 20 points on 4-of-9 from deep, and Duke transfer Nik Khamenia added 14.
The game is decided in the paint. Seton Hall transfer Na'jai Hines had 12 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks in his UConn debut. Michigan answers with 7-foot-2 Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam, who averaged 12.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks last season. J.P. Estrella filled in for him Monday with 15 points and 12 rebounds on 7-of-9. CBS Sports flags Hines as foul-prone when UConn hedges ball screens hard, and if he sits, 6-foot-11 Oskar Giltay (7 points in 17 minutes Monday) is next up.
Who's missing
Michigan is without five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. for the season after he tore his right ACL on the team's European tour in August. That loss is why UConn has the deeper bench: Colben Landrew scored 11 off it Monday.
Thiam missed the opener with an illness, and Boynton said on Thursday the expectation is that he'll be available, per On3. His return lets Estrella slide to power forward and gives Michigan a real answer for Hines. On the UConn side, Solo Ball has been sidelined by a long-running wrist injury, according to On3, and didn't play Monday. Hurley also promised a tighter rotation: "I did not sub [the first game] the way I'm going to sub the Michigan game."
How the line has moved
The money has gone one way. UConn has moved from -5.5 to -7.5, and its moneyline from -230 to -325. The total has dropped a full five points, from 146.5 to 141.5, after both teams struggled from three in their openers (Michigan 21%, UConn 31%). CBS Sports called two full possessions "a bit rich" for a matchup this even at the top of the roster.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. We aren't backing a side or the total:
- The model doesn't separate them. It has this game at 50-50 with very low confidence, while the moneyline implies UConn at roughly 73% after removing the vig. ESPN's matchup predictor sits at 69.9% for UConn.
- The glass favors UConn. Holding Gardner-Webb to 4 offensive rebounds against Michigan allowing 21 to Oakland is the biggest gap in the box scores, and Boynton called it "certainly not something that can continue."
- But Michigan has the pieces to stay close. A Final Four MOP at the point, two guards who scored 17 apiece Monday, and Thiam's 7-foot-2 frame on the way back.
- The number has already moved two points toward UConn. Laying -7.5 in game two for two rebuilt rosters asks a lot of a one-game sample.
Swing factor: fouls. If Hines or Cadeau picks up two early, the matchup tilts fast.
On the total: the drop to 141.5 is driven by two cold shooting nights from three. Michigan's opener produced 152 points and UConn's 132, so there's no clear read either way.
