Analysis
Dayton Flyers vs Siena Saints Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the market prices Dayton around 91% at -1000, and our model gives no reason to fade or chase that number.
- Siena's Tim Ibukunoluwa is averaging 25.0 points and 13.0 rebounds on 18-of-26 shooting through two games.
- Both teams are under 26% from three; Dayton went 2-for-17 in Saturday's 81-76 overtime loss to Northern Illinois.
- The total opened at 152.5 and now sits at 158.5 to 159.5.
Dayton (1-1) hosts Siena (1-1) at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday at UD Arena (ESPN+), with the Flyers laying 12.5 to 13 points and the total at 158.5 to 159.5 after opening at 152.5. Dayton is coming off a home overtime loss to Northern Illinois, and Siena's Tim Ibukunoluwa just went 12-for-12 for 30 points. The market sees a comfortable home win, but our model doesn't separate these teams: no edge.
How these teams got here
Dayton opened with an 89-58 rout of NJIT, outrebounding the Highlanders 50-28 and holding them to 3-of-25 from three. Saturday flipped the script. Northern Illinois left UD Arena with an 81-76 overtime win, and the Flyers' perimeter offense was the reason: Dayton went 2-for-17 from deep while NIU hit 12 of 30. The Flyers got to overtime by living at the line (30-of-41) and forcing 20 turnovers, but they couldn't make enough jumpers to close.
Siena's week went the other way. The Saints dropped their opener 80-75 at Bryant, shooting 6-of-27 from three, then handled Princeton 82-68 at home Sunday behind 53% shooting from the floor.
Two games in, Dayton is scoring 82.5 points and allowing 69.5. Siena is at 78.5 and 74.0. Both programs come off winning seasons: Dayton went 25-12 last year (14-4 at home) and Siena 23-12, per the AP, and Siena's March ended with a 71-65 loss to Duke. Rest is close to even, with Dayton last playing Saturday night and Siena Sunday afternoon.
Ibukunoluwa vs. Dayton's frontcourt
This game runs through the paint. Siena forward Tim Ibukunoluwa is averaging 25.0 points and 13.0 rebounds and has made 18 of his 26 shots (69%), including a perfect 12-for-12 against Princeton. Pace Prosser (17.5 points, 7.0 assists) runs the offense around him, and Trent Egbiremolen adds 12.0 a night.
Dayton answers with its own interior pair. Aiden Derkack is at 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 11-of-17 shooting, and Amal L'Etang adds 18.0 points and 8.5 boards. Off the bench, Landen Joseph scored 19 against Northern Illinois.
Neither side has found its three-point stroke: Dayton is 11-of-43 (25.6%) and Siena 11-of-45 (24.4%). That pushes the game toward rebounds and free throws, and Dayton has the better numbers in both. The Flyers are shooting 77.4% at the line to Siena's 63.2%, and they are +4.0 rebounds per game while Siena is -2.5, even with Ibukunoluwa grabbing 13 a night. The number to watch is Siena's 15.0 turnovers per game against a Dayton defense that forced 20 on Saturday.
Lineup notes
Neither school has posted an availability designation for this game, and college basketball has no official injury report, so the page's injury table is empty. All four of the key names started each team's most recent game and played heavy minutes: Derkack logged 40 in the overtime loss, and Prosser played 35 against Princeton.
How the line has moved
The spread has held at its 12.5 opener almost everywhere, with one book at 13, and the moneyline sits at Dayton -1000 to -1050 (Siena +650 to +660). The total is the story. It opened at 152.5 and now sits at 158.5 to 159.5, a climb of 6 to 7 points even though both teams are shooting under 26% from three. That number asks two offenses averaging a combined 161 points to keep scoring without much help from the perimeter.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The moneyline puts Dayton's chances around 91%, ESPN's BPI has the Flyers at 92%, and our model doesn't separate the two teams at all. A model that can't tell a 12.5-point home favorite from its opponent isn't a reason to fade that price, so we pass. The numbers explain why the market is where it is:
- Home floor: Dayton went 14-4 at UD Arena last season and beat NJIT by 31 there in the opener.
- Free throws: Dayton is shooting 77.4% at the line, Siena 63.2%.
- Possessions: Siena is giving it away 15.0 times a game to Dayton's 12.5, and the Flyers have a +4.0 rebound margin.
- Siena's counter: Ibukunoluwa's 25.0 points and 13.0 rebounds give the Saints a focal point Dayton has to solve, and Princeton shot just 34% against Siena on Sunday.
The swing factor is Dayton's shooting. If the Flyers repeat Saturday's 2-for-17, Ibukunoluwa can keep this inside 12.5, the way Northern Illinois hung around and won. As for the total, 158.5 to 159.5 is a steep climb from 152.5 for two teams shooting about 25% from deep, but without a model number behind it we're not taking a side.
