UFC Vegas 75 Picks, Odds and Preview


The UFC is back in Las Vegas on Saturday and we’re going to identify the best UFC Vegas 75 picks. The fight card will be headlined by Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier in the main event.

UFC Vegas 75 will be hosted at UFC Apex and there are 12 confirmed fights after the weigh-ins.

UFC Vegas 75 Preview

When: Saturday, June 17th 2023

Time: Prelims (7:00 PM ET) / Main Card (10:00 PM ET)

Watch: ESPN / ESPN+ (USA) / TSN (Canada)

The main event features two of the best middleweight fighters. Vettori is ranked #3 in the division and Cannonier is ranked #4. The only other ranked fighter on the card is Arman Tsarukyan (#8 lightweight).

The card does feature several prospects that should become ranked in the near future.

Expert UFC Vegas 75 Picks

I’ve analyzed the majority of my UFC Vegas 75 picks below. You can access all of my plays by signing up for a Sports Hub account (email required) and searching for “SWJ Sports”. I’m 12-6 (+$98) on the UFC and excited about this weekend’s card. I also recommend searching for the capper “MMA Free”, as he’s on an incredible 24-4 (+$439) run and will be releasing UFC Vegas 75 picks for Saturday night.

Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier Prediction

Fight Odds: Vettori (-125) vs. Cannonier (-105)

Vettori (19-6-1) is only 3-2 since 2021, but the losses were against Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. He defeated Roman Dolidze in his last fight at UFC 286 in March. Vettori isn’t a finisher. In fact, 12 of his last 13 fights have gone the distance, which includes four fights that went five rounds.

This fight is also five rounds. Cannonier (16-6) is 3-2 since 2020 and oddly enough, his two losses were against Adesanya and Whittaker as well. Cannonier has heavy hands (10 TKO/KO wins), but four of his last five fights have gone the distance, including three five-round decisions.

These guys have similar striking numbers. Vettori averages 4.38 SLpM (44% accuracy) and 3.65 SApM (59% defense), while Cannonier averages 4.00 SLpM (50% accuracy) and 3.86 SApM (61% defense).

Cannonier will have a 3” reach advantage (77” vs. 74”), but Vettori has the grappling edge. He averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes (44% accuracy) and has 75% takedown defense.


Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva Prediction

Fight Odds: Tsarukyan (-1100) vs. Silva (+600)

Tsarukyan (19-3) is 6-2 in the UFC with two TKO wins and four decision wins. He’s coming off a decision win against Damir Ismagulov. Silva (12-3) is 5-3 in the UFC, but he has lost three of his last five fights.

Silva defeated Jesse Ronson by TKO in his last fight, but prior to that he was knocked out by Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Haqparast. Tsarukyan has seven TKO/KO wins in his career. He’ll have a 3” reach advantage (72” vs. 69”) in this fight. He averages 3.56 SLpM, 1.93 SApM and 3.30 takedowns per 15 minutes.

This is a big mismatch and I expect Tsarukyan to be able to finish Silva in the co-main event.

Best Bet: Tsarukyan Inside the Distance (-350)

Armen Petrosyan vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction

Fight Odds: Petrosyan (+125) vs. Duncan (-155)

This is the fight I can’t wait to watch. Duncan (8-0) could be a star in the making. He won his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic (TKO – knee injury) in the first round. Petrosyan (8-2) is a top prospect at MW and he’s 2-1 in the UFC. Both fighters have won six fights by TKO/KO.

Petrosyan has UFC wins against Gregory Rodrigues and A.J. Dobson. He lost to Caio Borralho. All three of his UFC fights have gone the distance. Both of these guys are strikers. Petrosyan averages 5.99 SLpM (51% accuracy) and 2.75 SApM. Duncan averages 4.82 SLpM (64% accuracy) and 2.14 SApM.

Duncan comes into this fight with a massive 8” reach advantage (79” vs. 71”), which could prove to be too much to handle. Petrosyan hasn’t attempted a takedown in the UFC, so it’s likely these guys will bang in the middle of the cage. Both fighters have bright futures, but only one of them can win on Saturday.


Manuel Torres vs. Nikolas Motta Prediction

Fight Odds: Torres (-193) vs. Motta (+163)

Torres (13-2) has looked impressive in the fights I’ve seen. He defeated Kolton Englund (TKO) on DWCS and then won his UFC debut against Frank Camacho (TKO). Both wins were in the first round.

Motta (13-4) also packs a lot of power in his punches. He has 9 TKO/KO wins, including a TKO win in his last fight against Cameron VanCamp. Prior to that win, he lost his UFC debut to Jim Miller (TKO). The one thing that concerns me about Motta is he has been stopped in all four of his losses.

Torres has seen his fights end in the first round 14 times. His two losses were by submission. Motta has never won by submission. Torres has better striking (10.50 SlpM vs. 3.37 SLpM) and striking defense (3.74 SApM vs. 4.54 SApM). He’ll also have a 3” reach advantage in this fight.

Motta can put anyone to sleep if he connects, but Torres is also a monster in the cage.


Nicolas Dalby vs. Muslim Salikhov Prediction

Fight Odds: Dalby (+165) vs. Salikhov (-205)

Salikhov (19-3) is a pretty big favorite against Dalby (21-4-1-2) on the main card. Salikhov is 6-2 in the UFC and he’s coming off a win against Andre Fialho (TKO) in the third round. Dalby is on a 3-1 run and has won his last two fights against Claudio Silva and Warlley Alves. Dalby is 4-1-0-1 in the UFC. If you remove the no contest, all five of his UFC fights have gone the distance.


Jimmy Flick vs. Alessandro Costa Prediction

Fight Odds: Flick (-225) vs. Costa (-295)

Costa (12-3) is an intriguing prospect that’s projected to move up the rankings at flyweight. He ended up losing his UFC debut to Amir Albazi (KO in R3), but Albazi is extremely talented and just picked up a win against Kai Kara-France at UFC Vegas 74. Costa will look to get in the win column on Saturday night.

Flick (16-6) won his UFC debut against Cody Durden (Submission) in 2020, but then he retired. He ended up coming back, but lost to Charles Johnson (TKO) in the first round in January. Flick has won 14 of his fights by submission and he has never knocked anyone out. Costa has never been tapped out before.

Flick has lost five of his fights by TKO/KO and Costa has won three of his last five fights by TKO/KO.

Best Bet: Costa ML (-295)

UFC Vegas 75 Odds for Every Fight

Here are the latest UFC Vegas 75 odds (subject to change):

Marvin Vettori (-125) vs.Jared Cannonier (-105)

Arman Tsarukyan (-1100) vs. Joaquim Silva (+600)

Armen Petrosyan (+125) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-155)

Pat Sabatini (-205) vs. Lucas Almeida (+165)

Manuel Torres (-193) vs. Nikolas Motta (+163)

Nicolas Dalby (+165) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-205)

Jimmy Flick (+225) vs. Alessandro Costa (-295)

Kyung Ho Kang (+110) vs. Christian Quinonez (-140)

Carlos Hernandez (+104) vs. Denys Bondar (-134)

Tereza Bleda (-227) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+177)

Dan Argueta (+162) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (-192)

Zac Pauga (+159) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (-189)

How to Access All of Our UFC Vegas 75 Picks

You need to sign-up for a Sports Hub account to access all of our UFC Vegas 75 picks. We have several UFC experts, but to access the plays above you need to go to SWJ Sports’ profile. All of his picks have already been released, so what are you waiting for? Open an account and check out the predictions. You’ll find picks for every in-season sport with one membership.