UFC Paris Picks, Odds and Preview


After analyzing the betting markets, we’ve identified the best UFC Paris picks. The MMA action will get underway at 12:30 PM ET, so make sure you get your UFC Paris picks in before the fights start.

The main event will feature Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac. Rose Namajunas will fight Manon Fiorot in the co-main event. There’s a lot of local French talent on the UFC Paris fight card this weekend as well.

UFC Paris Preview

When: Saturday, September 2nd 2023

Where: Accor Arena in Paris, France

Time: 12:30 PM ET (Prelims) / 3:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass

There are five ranked fighters on the UFC Paris card. Namajunas will make her UFC flyweight debut in a fight with title implications. Volkan Oezdemir (#9 LHW) is also fighting on the main card tomorrow.

The UFC Paris weigh-ins are complete and everyone ended up making weight. Zarah Fairn needed some extra time to hit 140 pounds for her catchweight fight on the prelims, but she made the cut.

Expert UFC Paris Picks

I was on vacation last week and missed UFC Singapore, but I’m back with my UFC Paris picks. You can access my UFC Paris picks under my profile (SWJ Sports) once you sign up for a Sports Hub account. I’ve gone 51-35 (+$224) on UFC predictions at Sports Hub and will look to turn a profit this weekend.

Here are my UFC Paris best bets and analysis for the fights I’m targeting:

Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Gane (-185) vs. Spivac (+155)

Gane (11-2) is coming off a loss against Jon Jones (R1 Submission). Spivac (16-3) is on a three-fight win streak, with all three wins coming by stoppage. Spivac averages 5.05 takedowns per 15 minutes and has won seven fights by submission. Gane only has 45% takedown defense and isn’t a good grappler.

Gane averages 5.08 SLpM and 2.25 SApM. He isn’t the most exciting striker, but he has power and great striking defense. Spivac has terrible striking and has been knocked out twice before. Will Spivac land TDs and win this fight or will Gane move forward methodically and eventually land a TKO/KO?

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Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Fiorot (-185) vs. Namajunas (+155)

Namajunas (11-5) is one of the most popular UFC Paris picks as an underdog. Fiorot (10-1) lost her first career MMA fight but has gone undefeated since, including a 5-0 run in the UFC. Fiorot is more active with her striking (6.58 SLpM vs. 3.66 SLpM) and she has better-striking defense (71% vs. 60%).

Rose is actually the younger fighter, but she won’t have her typical reach advantage. Namajunas will want to close the distance and grapple, while Fiorot will look to utilize her kickboxing. We don’t know if moving up weight classes will impact Rose negatively and Fiorot is a tough first opponent at flyweight.


Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moses Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Saint-Denis (-160) vs. Moses (+130)

Saint-Denis (11-1-0-1) is on a three-fight win streak and just upset Ismael Bonfim (R1 Submission). He has finished his last three opponents. Moses (17-6) has won two fights in a row by submission. Both of these guys are submission specialists, but Saint-Denis has the edge elsewhere.

Moses averages 2.47 SLpM and may not be able to take advantage of BSD’s poor striking defense (41%) in this fight. BSD hits hard and often (4.11 SLpM). He also averages more takedowns per 15 minutes (3.80 vs. 1.53) and has better takedown defense (85% vs. 60%). Moses often gives up takedowns to work submissions, but that’d be a mistake in this fight. I’m backing the God of War to win at home.

Best Bet: Benoit Saint-Denis ML (-160)

UFC Paris Picks
UFC Paris: Gane defeats Tuivasa with a knockout in the inaugural main event in the French capital.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Oezdemir (-180) vs. Guskov (+150)

Oezdemir (18-7) has lost three of his last four fights. He’s only 6-6 in the UFC. Guskov (14-2) is making his UFC debut. Guskov has won all of his fights by stoppage (12 TKO/KO and 2 Submissions). Oezdemir has 12 TKO/KO wins as well, but he hasn’t knocked anyone out since Ilir Latifi back in 2019.

Both guys have lots of power, but Guskov is relatively unknown. Oezdemir averages 4.53 SLpM and 3.97 SApM. Sometimes he’s a bit too patient and that costs him when he’s unable to finish fights. This fight will not go the distance, but there’s no value for that market, who will get their arm raised?

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William Gomis vs. Yanis Ghemmouri Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Gomis (-215) vs. Ghemmouri (+170)

Gomis (12-2) is 2-0 in the UFC, with both wins coming by decision. Ghemmouri (12-1) is making his UFC debut. Gomis is frustrating to fight. He’s smart in the cage, but he lacks volume. Gomis is only averaging 1.97 SLpM (39% accuracy), but he has a great defense (1.17 SApM / 81% striking defense).

Gomis will have a 4” reach advantage (73” vs. 69”). He’s also capable of landing takedowns. Ghemmouri could pull off the upset if he’s able to land some volume. Gomis won a close split decision last time out against Francis Marshall. I’m backing Gomis by decision for my UFC Paris picks on Saturday.

Best Bet: William Gomis to Win by Decision (+105)

Morgan Charriere vs. Manolo Zecchini Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Charriere (-355) vs. Zecchini (+275)

Charriere (18-9-1) and Zecchini (11-3) are both making their UFC debut on Saturday. Both guys have lots of power. Charriere has 10 TKO/KO wins and Zecchini has 9 TKO/KO wins. Zecchini has been knocked out once previously whereas Charriere has never been knocked out in his career.

There’s a good chance this fight ends by TKO/KO, but who will win?


UFC Paris Picks – Best Parlay Bet

There are numerous fighters making their UFC debut on Saturday. There are some big favorites on the prelims, but I’m avoiding them. My best parlay for my UFC Paris picks is Saint-Denis to win and the Charriere vs. Zecchini fight to end by stoppage. The parlay is paying +151 odds.

Saint-Denis ML + Charriere/Zecchini Not to Go the Distance (+151 Odds)

UFC Paris Odds

Here are the UFC Paris odds for all 11 fights on the schedule:

  • Ciryl Gane (-185) vs. Serghei Spivac (+155)
  • Manon Fiorot (-185) vs. Rose Namajunas (+155)
  • Benoit Saint-Denis (-160) vs. Thiago Moses (+130)
  • Volkan Oezdemir (-180) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+150)
  • William Gomis (-215) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+170)
  • Morgan Charriere (-355) vs. Manolo Zecchini (+275)
  • Taylor Lapilus (-170) vs. Caolan Loughran (+140)
  • Ange Loosa (-165) vs. Rhys McKee (+135)
  • Nora Cornolle (-110) vs. Joselyne Edwards (-120)
  • Farid Basharat (-380) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (+280)
  • Zarah Fairn (+270) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-360)

How to Access UFC Paris Picks at Sports Hub

You need to open a free Sports Hub account (email verification only) to access all of our expert UFC Paris picks for Saturday. I’ve released seven UFC Paris picks already and may have more before tomorrow.