UFC Fight Night 232 Predictions, Odds and Preview

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We’ve identified the best value (+EV) UFC Fight Night 232 predictions. The UFC is back at UFC Apex in Las Vegas after last week’s PPV event. Brendan Allen will fight Paul Craig in the main event.

I can’t say I’m overly excited about this week’s fight card, but there are some intriguing fights.

Michael Morales, Chase Hooper and Payton Talbott will look to pick up a win on the main card. I’m also looking forward to the final fight on the prelims between Jonathan Pearce and Joanderson Brito.

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UFC Fight Night 232 Preview

When: Saturday, November 18th 2023

Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: 2:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 5:00 PM ET

Watch: ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass

There are just four ranked fighters on the UFC Fight Night 232 card (Allen #10 MW, Craig #13 MW, Luana Pinheiro #9 WSW and Amanda Ribas #10 WSW). There are several prospects that will be ranked soon.

The weigh-ins are complete. Two fighters missed weight, but will still fight. Lucas Alexander (148 pounds) missed by two pounds and Rafael Estevam (128 pounds) missed weight by two pounds. Both fighters will forfeit 20% of their purse. Keep this in mind when making UFC Fight Night 232 predictions.

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Expert UFC Fight Night 232 Predictions

Are you looking for some winners for your UFC Fight Night 232 predictions this weekend? We’re going to preview several of the fights and look for the best value bets across a variety of betting markets.

Myktybek Orolbai is the smallest favorite (-150) on the main card tomorrow. There are several massive favorites on the card, so we’ll need to consider the method of victory market to find value.

The UFC Fight Night 232 prelims have several fights that are expected to be close battles. The first few fights of the night are tough to predict. Let’s jump into my UFC Fight Night 232 predictions.

Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Allen (-445) vs. Craig (+315)

Allen (22-5) is on a five-fight win streak and he has submitted four of those opponents. Craig (17-6-1) won against Andre Muniz (TKO) in his last fight after dropping down to middleweight.

Craig is a finisher, he has never won a fight by decision. He has 13 submission wins. Allen is also great at submissions (13). He has really been working on his rear-naked choke. Allen averages 3.96 SLpM and 3.89 SApM. Craig averages 2.57 SLpM and 2.85 SApM. Both fighters have weak takedown defense.

Craig is capable of submitting anyone, but can he submit Allen? Allen hasn’t been tapped out since 2016 in an LFC fight against Trevin Giles. Login to Sports Hub to get my UFC Fight Night 232 predictions.

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Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Morales (-340) vs. Matthews (+265)

Morales (15-0) is 3-0 in the UFC, with two wins by TKO. Matthews (19-6) is a veteran, but he’s 2-2 since 2021 in the UFC. Morales has power (11 TKO/KO wins), but only one submission win. Matthews has one loss by TKO/KO in his lengthy career and that was way back in 2006 against Kevin Lee.

Morales averages 5.17 SLpM and 3.54 SApM, while Matthews averages 3.27 SLpM and 2.33 SApM. If the fight went to the mat, Matthews could pull off the upset, but will he initiate? Morales has 91% TDD.

Max Griffin just went the distance with Morales. Morales will have a 6” reach advantage, so Matthews will need to avoid getting rocked. Open an account (free) to get all of my UFC Fight Night 232 predictions.

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Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Hooper (-195) vs. Leavitt (+155)

Hooper (12-3-1) is 4-3 in the UFC. He hasn’t fought two consecutive fights in the UFC yet, but he’ll have a chance to change that. Leavitt (11-2) is 4-2 in the UFC and he’s coming off a win against Victor Martinez.

There should be a lot of grappling and scrambling in this fight. Neither guy has much power. Hopper has five submission wins and Leavitt has six submission wins. Hooper averages 1.47 TDs per 15 minutes and Leavitt averages 2.31 TDs per 15 minutes. Both struggle with takedown defense as well.

This fight could come down to who makes the first big mistake on the ground. Both guys are going to be looking for a submission. I’m betting on this fight to end by stoppage, as I expect a submission.

This is one of my top UFC Fight Night 232 predictions

Best Bet: Fight Not to Go the Distance (-120)

Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Talbott (-705) vs. Aguirre (+465)

Talbott (6-0) is making his UFC debut on the main card. Aguirre (7-1) lost his UFC debut back in January against Dan Argueta. Talbott already has some impressive wins and he has 5 TKO/KO wins.

Talbott is a volume fighter with an aggressive pace. He’s expected to become a UFC star and while it’s a bit early to say that in my opinion, I’m excited to see him fight on Saturday. Talbott averages 9.67 SLpM and 5.07 SApM. Aguirre has a 4” reach advantage and four submission wins.

Aguirre is only averaging 0.93 SLpM. Talbott averages about that every 30 seconds. I expect Talbott to win, but the question is how? Sign-up to Sports Hub for all of my UFC Fight Night 232 predictions.

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Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Ribas Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Pinheiro (+175) vs. Ribas (-235)

Pinheiro (11-1) is 3-0 in the UFC, with her last two wins coming by decision. Ribas (11-4) is just 2-3 in her last five fights. Ribas has been knocked out three times in her career and twice in her last five fights.

Both fighters like to mix in takedowns. Pinheiro averages 2.83 TDs per 15 minutes and Ribas averages 2.27 TDs per 15 minutes. Pinheiro only has 50% TDD, while Ribas has 80% TD defense.

If this fight goes the distance, Ribas will likely have the edge. However, Pinheiro is capable of ending this fight. Sign-up to Sports Hub to access all of my UFC Fight Night 232 predictions for Saturday.

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Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Pearce (-135) vs. Brito (+105)

Pearce (14-4) is on a five-fight win streak, but I’m surprised he’s favored against Brito (15-3-1). Brito is 3-1 in the UFC and on a three-fight win streak, with all the victories coming in the opening round.

Pearce averages 6.11 SLpM, 3.66 SApM and 5.74 TDs per 15 minutes. Brito averages 4.02 SLpM, 2.92 SApM and 3.89 TDs per 15 minutes. This is going to be one of the most exciting fights on the card.

We’re likely going to see one of these guys get finished. Pearce has three stoppage losses and Brito has two stoppage losses. I’m betting on Brito as an underdog for my UFC Fight Night 232 predictions.

UFC Fight Night 223 Odds

Here are the latest odds for UFC Fight Night 223:

  • Brendan Allen (-445) vs. Paul Craig (+315)
  • Michael Morales (-340) vs. Jake Matthews (+265)
  • Chase Hooper (-195) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+155)
  • Payton Talbott (-705) vs. Nick Aguirre (+465)
  • Luana Pinheiro (+175) vs. Amanda Ribas (-235)
  • Uros Medic (-110) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-120)
  • Jonathan Pearce (-135) vs. Joanderson Brito (+105)
  • Chad Anheliger (+170) vs. Jose Johnson (-210)
  • Christian Leroy Duncan (-520) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+365)
  • Mick Parkin (-360) vs. Caio Machado (+270)
  • Jeka Saragih (+370) vs. Lucas Alexander (-525)
  • Lucie Pudilova (+140) vs. Ailin Perez (-170)
  • Trey Ogden (+105) vs. Nikolas Motta (-135)
  • Charles Johnson (+125) vs. Rafael Estevam (-155)

There are some big favorites, but we could be in for a night of upsets. Keep that in mind when making your UFC Fight Night 232 predictions and be cautious if you’re going to bet on parlays with favorites.

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