UFC Fight Night 231 Predictions, Odds and Preview

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We’re back with UFC Fight Night 231 predictions. There was no UFC event last weekend. This week, the UFC is in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Jailton Almeida will fight Derrick Lewis in the main event.

There are 11 confirmed fights, and we have the best UFC Fight Night 231 predictions.

UFC Fight Night 231 Preview

Before getting into our UFC Fight Night 231 predictions, we’ll preview the fight card.

When: Saturday, November 4th 2023

Where: Ibirapuera Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Time: 6:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 9:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: ESPN+

There are five ranked fighters on the fight card. Those fighters include Almeida (#9 HW), Lewis (#10 HW), Rodrigo Nascimento (#15 HW), Rinat Fakhretdinov (#15 WW) and Angela Hill (#12 WSW).

The UFC Fight Night 231 weigh-ins are complete. Three fighters missed weight. Ismael Bonfim (159.5 pounds), Victor Hugo (138.5 pounds), and Eduarda Moura (119.5 pounds) all missed weight. The Bonfim and Hugo fights were canceled. Moura will still fight, but she’ll be fined 30% of her purse.

Expert UFC Fight Night 231 Predictions

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Here are my (SWJ Sports) UFC Fight Night 231 predictions:

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Almeida (-565) vs. Lewis (+390)

Almeida (19-2) is 5-0 in the UFC, with all wins being by stoppage. He has crushed all of his opponents up to this point. Will Lewis (27-11-0-1) be able to utilize his power and test the Brazilian? Lewis is ranked first all-time in UFC knockouts (14), and he’s coming off a TKO win against Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

Almeida is an excellent wrestler and grappler. He has 12 submission wins. Almeida averages 3.81 SLpM, 0.30 SApM, and 6.40 takedowns per 15 minutes (68% takedown accuracy). Lewis has weak takedown defense (52%). Lewis always has a puncher’s chance, but this is an uphill battle for the veteran.

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Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Bonfim (-635) vs. Dalby (+435)

Bonfim (15-0) is 2-0 in the UFC, with two first-round submission wins. Bonfim has 12 submission wins and he averages 4.80 takedowns per 15 minutes (100% takedown accuracy). He also averages 6.08 SLpM and 4.80 SApM. Dalby (22-4-1-2) is on a three-fight win streak, and they’ve all been by decision.

Dalby averages 3.93 SLpM, 3.39 SApM, and 1.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dalby has four losses, but he has never been finished. This will be a good test for Bonfim. Dalby is big and strong. Will Bonfim be able to manhandle his opponent again, or will his cardio be tested against the veteran?

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Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Nascimento (-205) vs. Mayes (+165)

Nascimento (10-1-0-1) is 3-1-0-1 in the UFC and he already defeated Mayes (10-5-0-1) by submission in the second round back in 2020 (UFC on ESPN 8). Nascimento averages 4.20 SLpM and 4.60 SApM. He also averages 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes. Mayes averages 3.39 SLpM and 3.73 SApM.

I’m not sure why we’re getting a rematch here. Nascimento has improved his striking since the first time these two fought and he’s still going to have the edge in grappling. Mayes is coming off a TKO win over Andrei Arlovski and he now has six TKO/KO wins. This feels like it should be an easy win for Nascimento.

Best Bet: Rodrigo Nascimento ML (-205)

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Borralho (-295) vs. Magomedov (+235)

Borralho (14-1-0-1) is 4-0 in the UFC, with three of the wins coming by decision. Magomedov (25-5-1) is 1-1 in the UFC. He crushed Dustin Stoltzfus in 19 seconds, but lost to Sean Strickland (TKO). His cardio is a huge question mark and that’s likely not a winning recipe against someone like Borralho.

Magomedov averages 5.60 SLpM, but he eats way too many shots (8.39 SApM). Borralho averages 2.59 SLpM, 1.86 SApM and 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. Borralho isn’t an exciting fighter, but he has been getting the job done. Join Sports Hub to access all of our expert UFC Fight Night 231 predictions.

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Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Vieira (-110) vs. Petrosyan (-120)

This is going to be a close fight. Petrosyan (9-2) has the edge in striking. Petrosyan averages 5.97 SLpM and 3.03 SApM. Vieira (9-2) is a submission specialist (eight submission wins). Vieira averages 3.70 TDs per 15 minutes and Petrosyan has horrible takedown defense (36%). Vieira has a 2” reach advantage.

Vieira will take this fight to the mat and work submissions if it’s up to him. Petrosyan will aim to piece up his opponent and score enough points for a decision win. All of Petrosyan’s fights have gone the distance in the UFC. Petrosyan has never been submitted. Will that change? We’ll find out on Saturday.

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Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Fakhretdinov (-340) vs. Dos Santos (+265)

Fakhretdinov (21-1) hasn’t lost a fight in over a decade. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and he just submitted Kevin Lee in 55 seconds back in July. Dos Santos (24-7) is 10-3 in the UFC and he’s on a two-fight win streak. Dos Santos is durable and he has gone the distance in four consecutive fights. I expect Fakhretdinov to win this fight handedly, but dos Santos has only been stopped three times in his career.

Best Bet: Fakhretdinov by Decision (+160)

UFC Fight Night 231 Predictions – Best Parlay Bet

My best parlay is on Almeida, Nascimento and Fakhretdinov all to win. The parlay bet pays plus money (+126 odds) and all three should dominate. Bonfim is a huge favorite, but I’d avoid him on parlays. He could end up getting upset. He hasn’t really been tested in the UFC yet.

Almeida just has to avoid the power shots from Lewis and he should cruise to a win. Almeida needs to get Lewis on the mat and then it’s likely all over. Nascimento has defeated Mayes before and I haven’t seen much improvement out of Mayes to suggest that this fight will be any different.

Best Bet: Almeida ML + Nascimento ML + Fakhretdinov ML (+126 Odds)

UFC Fight Night 231 Odds

Here are the UFC Fight Night 231 odds for all 11 confirmed fights:

  • Jailton Almeida (-565) vs. Derrick Lewis (+390)
  • Gabriel Bonfim (-635) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+435)
  • Rodrigo Nascimento (-205) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+165)
  • Caio Borralho (-295) vs. Abus Magomedov (+235)
  • Rodolfo Vieira (-110) vs. Armen Petrosyan (-120)
  • Elves Brener (-220) vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky (+185)
  • Rinat Fakhretdinov (-340) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+265)
  • Vitor Petrino (-250) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+190)
  • Angela Hill (+120) vs. Denise Gomes (-150)
  • Eduarda Moura (-635) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+435)
  • Kaue Fernandes (+150) vs. Marc Diakiese (-190)

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