UFC Fight Night 230 Predictions, Odds and Preview

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We have identified the best UFC Fight Night 230 predictions. There are a few interesting matchups on the main card that’ll shake up the rankings. The event will be hosted at UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

The main event will feature Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza.

UFC Fight Night 230 Preview

When: Saturday, October 14th 2023

Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: 4:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 7:00 PM ET

Watch: ESPN and ESPN+

There are seven ranked fighters on the card, including Yusuff (#11 FW), Barboza (#13 FW), Jennifer Maia (#9 WFW), Viviane Araujo (#11 WFW), Jonathan Martinez (#13 BW), Adrian Yanez (#14 BW) and Chris Gutierrez (#15 BW). This should be a more entertaining fight card than last week.

The UFC Fight Night 230 weigh-ins just finished up. Christian Rodriguez missed weight again, but he’ll be fighting still (fined 25% of purse). The rematch between Edgar Chairez and Daniel Lacerda was canceled just minutes ago due to a Lacerda medical issue despite both guys making weight. I had plans to wager on Chairez this weekend, but I won’t be able to now. It’s a shame, as I expected him to dominate.

Expert UFC Fight Night 230 Predictions

Sign-up to Sports Hub to access all of our UFC Fight Night 230 predictions for free. I (SWJ Sports) ended up going 3-2 (+$50) last week. It could have been better, but the Ion Cutelaba fight was canceled late.

Let’s jump into my UFC Fight Night 230 predictions.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Yusuff (-165) vs. Barboza (+135)

Yusuff (13-2) is stepping up in competition against Barboza (23-11). Yusuff is 6-1 in the UFC and he has won two consecutive fights. Barboza is coming off a win against Billy Quarantillo, but he had lost his two previous fights. Barboza has a 4” reach advantage, plus he’s fast and has KO power (14 TKO/KO wins).

Barboza averages 4.00 SLpM and 4.12 SApM, while Yusuff averages 5.29 SLpM and 3.65 SApM. Neither fighter will be looking to land takedowns. Barboza is a popular underdog, but will he get the job done?

Barboza could definitely end this fight by TKO/KO. It’s a five-round fight. Yussuf is unlikely to finish this fight. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance. This should be an electric main event.

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Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Maia (-155) vs. Araujo (+125)

WMMA is always tough to predict. Maia (21-9-1) has won her last two fights. In 11 UFC fights, Maia has gone the distance ten times. She’s extremely durable. Araujo (11-5) has lost two in a row and three of her last four fights. Her last eight fights in the UFC have all gone the distance.

There’s a great shot this fight goes the distance, but the odds aren’t worth betting. Araujo averages 4.63 SLpM, 5.45 SApM and 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. Maia averages 4.50 SLpM and 4.78 SApM.

Araujo will have a 4” reach advantage and Maia only has 57% takedown defense. Maia has fought well in her last two wins and her striking volume is up. She landed 109 strikes against Maryna Moroz and 145 strikes against Casey O’Neill. Sign-up to Sports Hub to get all my UFC Fight Night 230 predictions.

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Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Martinez (-110) vs. Yanez (-120)

This is a toss up. Martinez (18-4) is on a five-fight win streak. Yanez (16-4) lost to Rob Font last time out, which snapped a nine-fight win streak. Yanez has lots of power (10 TKO/KO wins). Martinez isn’t as much as a finisher. During his current five-fight win streak, four of the wins were by decision.

Martinez averages 4.63 SLpM and 3.81 SApM. Yanez is the more active striker (6.75 SLpM), but he also eats a lot of shots (5.89 SApM). Yanez is a bit of a slow starter as well. Martinez has brutal leg kicks and he finished Cub Swanson with a leg kick last year. However, Yanez likely has better boxing.

This is going to be a war. Both fighters have a path to victory. I’m betting on over 2.5 rounds.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+115)

Andre Petroski vs. Michel Pereira Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Petroski (+165) vs. Pereira (-225)

Petroski (10-1) is 5-0 in the UFC. Pereira (28-11-0-1) is on a five-fight win streak. Pereira is moving up to middleweight, which will help with his weight cut. Pereira averages 5.09 SLpM and 3.78 SApM. He has a unique fighting style, but he hasn’t knocked someone out since Danny Roberts back in 2019.

Petroski averages 3.68 SLpM, 2.99 SApM and 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pereira has excellent TD defense (97%), though. Petroski needs to take this fight to the mat, as Pereira has the striking edge.

This is a tough fight to predict. Petroski could have success wrestling Pereira to the mat and winning the control time to win. However, Pereira could land a knockout, as he’s extremely quick on his feet.

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Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Rodriguez (-165) vs. Saaiman (+135)

Rodriguez (9-1) lost his UFC debut against Jonathan Pearce, but he has won two in a row since. His last win was against Raul Rosas Jr. (Decision). Saaiman (9-0) isn’t on the same level. Saaiman has power in his strikes (6 TKO/KO wins). Saaiman averages 5.41 SLpM and 2.48 SApM.

Rodriguez averages 2.89 SLpM and 1.73 SApM. Both guys are capable of mixing in takedowns. I’ve been impressed by Rodriguez and he has excellent defense. I have him coming off victorious.

Best Bet: Christian Rodriguez ML (-165)

Tainara Lisboa vs. Ravena Oliveira Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Lisboa (-320) vs. Oliveira (+245)

Lisboa (6-2) is on a four-fight win streak and they’ve all been by stoppage. She won her UFC debut back in May against Jessica-Rose Clark by submission. Oliveira (7-1-1) is making her UFC debut. She has won her last seven fights by stoppage. These two fighters are both capable of finishing this fight.

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UFC Fight Night 230 Predictions – Best Parlay Bet

There are a lot of close fights on the UFC Fight Night 230 card, which isn’t ideal for parlays. However, I’ll be betting on Chris Gutierrez, Terrance McKinney and Lisbao all to win on the moneyline. McKinney is a huge favorite against Brendon Marotte and should be able to make quick work of his opponent. Gutierrez is fighting Heili Alateng on the prelims and I expect him to pick up the win.

Best Parlay Bet: Gutierrez ML / McKinney ML / Lisbao ML (+102 Odds)

UFC Fight Night 230 Odds

Here are the complete odds for every fight on the UFC Fight Night 230 card:

  • Sodiq Yusuff (-165) vs. Edson Barboza (+135)
  • Jennifer Maia (-155) vs. Viviane Araujo (+125)
  • Jonathan Martinez (-110) vs. Adrian Yanez (-120)
  • Andre Petroski (+165) vs. Michel Pereira (-225)
  • Christian Rodriguez (-165) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+135)
  • Darren Elkins (+145) vs. TJ Brown (-185)
  • Tainara Lisboa (-320) vs. Ravena Oliveira (+245)
  • Terrance McKinney (-600) vs. Brendon Marotte (+425)
  • Irina Alekseeva (+115) vs. Melissa Dixon (-145)
  • Chris Gutierrez (-310) vs. Heili Alateng (+245)
  • Ashley Yoder (+305) vs. Emily Ducote (-405)

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