UFC 295 Predictions, Odds and Preview

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The UFC is back on pay-per-view (PPV) and we have winning UFC 295 predictions. There are going to be two title fights (LHW Championship and Interim HW Championship) on the main card.

UFC 295 will be hosted at Madison Square Garden in New York. Alex Pereira will fight in the main event against Jiri Prochazka. The last time Pereira fought at MSG he knocked out Israel Adesanya.

Tom Aspinall will fight Sergei Pavlovich in the co-main event, which should be a war. This is an excellent fight card. There are 13 scheduled fights, so there are a lot of options for UFC 295 predictions.

UFC 295 Preview

When: Saturday, November 11th 2023

Where: Madison Square Garden in New York, United States

Time: 6:00 PM ET (Early Prelims) / 8:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 10:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN / PPV

This is a deep card with ten ranked fighters scheduled to fight. Despite the card being hosted in NY, there are only two Americans on the main card (Matt Frevola and Pat Sabatini). There are six Americans on the prelims, including Jared Gordon and Jamall Emmers, who are both featured on the early prelims.

Before jumping into my UFC 295 predictions, let’s look at the UFC 295 weigh-in results.

The UFC 295 weigh-ins are complete and most fighters made weight. Roosevelt Roberts (158 pounds) and Emmers (147 pounds) both missed weight, but were close. Neither of the fights were canceled, as both are now scheduled at catchweight, but both fighters will forfeit 20% of their purse.

Expert UFC 295 Predictions

Get our expert UFC 295 predictions by signing up to Sports Hub (free account). I (SWJ Sports) release all of my UFC 295 predictions on my profile page. Last week, I went 3-3 (-$15) on my MMA picks.

I hit on Dalby vs. Bonfim over 1.5 rounds, Zaleski vs. Fakhretdinov over 2.5 rounds and Nascimento ML. One of my plays (Vieira ML) was canceled right before the fight, as Petrosyan had an illness. I missed on three method of victory bets. I’ll bounce back and turn a profit with my UFC 295 predictions.

Make sure you check out all of our other expert UFC 295 predictions from other handicappers as well.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Prochazka (+100) vs. Pereira (-130)

Prochazka (29-3-1) is 3-0 in the UFC and he has stopped all of his opponents. Pereira (8-2) is 5-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss against Adesanya. This is going to be an insane fight between two warriors.

Neither fighter is going to be hunting for takedowns. Pereira is an elite kickboxer with power. Prochazka is extremely tough with an excellent chin. He hasn’t been knocked out since 2015.

Prochazka averages 5.77 SLpM and 5.40 SApM, while Pereira averages 5.11 SLpM and 3.70 SApM. This is a fight that can end quickly. Sign-up to Sports Hub to get my UFC 295 predictions.

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Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Pavlovich (-110) vs. Aspinall (-120)

Pavlovich (18-1) is 6-1 in the UFC and he has won six consecutive fights. Aspinall (13-3) is also 6-1 in the UFC. Both fighters have finished all of their opponents, which is an incredible run for both guys.

Pavlovich has a huge reach (84”) and will have a 6” reach advantage. He averages 8.72 SLpM and 4.33 SApM, but he doesn’t even attempt takedowns. Aspinall averages 7.65 SLpM, 2.90 SApM and 3.70 TDs per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has 75% TD defense. Both of these guys have lots of power.

This is another excellent matchup between two high-level guys. It’s likely that one of these guys will win by TKO/KO. Join Sports Hub to get all of my UFC 295 predictions. We’re going to cash big on Saturday.

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Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Andrade (+165) vs. Dern (-205)

Andrade (24-12) has lost three fights in a row and she has been finished in all of them all. Dern is 2-2 in her last four fights and all of them went the distance. She just defeated Angela Hill.

Andrade averages 6.68 SLpM and 5.34 SApM. She also averages 2.54 TDs per 15 minutes. Dern is a submission specialist (seven submission wins). Dern averages 3.36 SLpM, 4.09 SApM and 0.81 TDs per 15 minutes. If this fight ends up on the ground, Dern will have opportunities to land a submission.

I’m not risking a ML bet on Dern, but I’ll be betting on her to win by submission. If Dern is going to win this fight, there’s a good chance that she’ll be able to lock in a sub. Andrade has been tapped four times and she’s struggling immensely now. Dern is one of my favorite UFC 295 predictions.

Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern by Submission (+115)

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Frevola (+165) vs. Saint-Denis (-225)

Frevola (11-3-1) has won his last three fights by TKO/KO in the opening round. Saint-Denis (12-1-0-1) is on a 4-0 run and all of the wins were by stoppage. Saint-Denis has never been stopped in his career.

Saint-Denis averages 5.59 SLpM, 5.27 SApM and 4.72 TDs per 15 minutes. Frevola will need to watch the takedowns, as he only has 42% TD defense. Frevola averages 3.72 SLpM and 3.56 SApM.

Frevola has been knocked out twice in his career, but he has never been submitted. The French fighter is on an incredible run, but Frevola is capable of ending this fight with his striking.

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Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Erceg (-190) vs. Costa (+150)

Erceg (10-1) won his UFC debut against David Dvorak. Costa (13-3) is 1-1 in the UFC and he’s coming off a win against Jimmy Flick by TKO. Erceg averages 3.60 SLpM and 3.53 SApM.

Costa averages 3.82 SLpM and 3.01 SApM. Costa has power in his punches and low kicks. Erceg has the ability to work in takedowns (3.00 TDs per 15 minutes), but Costa has 91% takedown defense.

One problem with Costa is his durability and cardio. He got gassed in his UFC debut and ended up losing by knockout. If Costa has been working on his motor, he could be a live underdog.

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Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Sadykhov (-155) vs. Borshchev (+125)

Sadykhov (9-1) is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by stoppage. Borshchev (7-3) is only 2-2 in the UFC. Borshchev lost two fights in the UFC because he can’t handle talented wrestlers yet.

That likely won’t matter in this fight. Sadykhov only averages 0.52 TDs per 15 minutes. I expect these two to battle it out in the middle of the cage, which is why I’m going to be backing the underdog.

Borshchev has won both of his UFC fights by TKO/KO. Sadykhov has won his last six fights by stoppage and he’ll push the pace. However, his striking defense is questionable and I think he’ll get rocked.

Best Bet: Viacheslav Borshchev ML (+125)

UFC 295 Predictions – Best Parlay Bet

I’ve included my best parlay bet with my UFC 295 predictions for Saturday. There are a lot of close fights that could go either way on Saturday, but there are also some big favorites that should dominate.

My three-leg parlay features Saint-Denis to win, Mateusz Rebecki to win and Emmers to win. Rebecki is the biggest favorite on the UFC 295 fight card and he should be able to bully Roberts.

Saint-Denis is on an incredible run and while he has a tough fight this weekend, he should win. Emmers is the first fight on the card and he’ll be going up against Dennis Buzukja who is 0-1 in the UFC.

Best Parlay Bet: Rebecki ML + Saint-Denis ML + Emmers ML (+132)

UFC 295 Odds

Here are the latest odds for all of the UFC 295 fights:

  • Jiri Prochazka (+100) vs. Alex Pereira (-130)
  • Sergei Pavlovich (-110) vs. Tom Aspinall (-120)
  • Jessica Andrade (+165) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-205)
  • Matt Frevola (+165) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-225)
  • Diego Lopes (+100) vs. Pat Sabatini (-130)
  • Steve Erceg (-190) vs. Alessandro Costa (+150)
  • Tabatha Ricci (+145) vs. Loopy Godinez (-175)
  • Mateusz Rebecki (-620) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (+420)
  • Nazim Sadykhov (-155) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+125)
  • Jared Gordon (-225) vs. Mark Madsen (+165)
  • John Castaneda (-130) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+100)
  • Joshua Van (-230) vs. Kevin Borjas (+170)
  • Dennis Buzukja (+200) vs. Jamall Emmers (-255)

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