UFC 292 Picks, Odds and Preview

Updated:

We’ve found the best value UFC 292 picks for the stacked fight card on Saturday. UFC 292 will be hosted at TD Garden in Boston, with the pay-per-view (PPV) main card starting at 10:00 PM ET.

The main event and co-main event are both title fights. Aljamain Sterling will fight Sean O’Malley for the bantamweight title and Zhang Weili will fight Amanda Lemos for the women’s strawweight title.

UFC 292 Preview

When: Saturday, August 19th 2023

Where: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts

Time: Early Prelims (6:30 PM ET) / Prelims (8:00 PM ET) / Main Card (10:00 PM ET)

Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN+ (Prelims) / Pay-Per-View (Main Card)

Excluding the two title fights, there are five other ranked fighters on the card. Those are Neil Magny (#11 WW), Ian Garry (#13 WW), Marlon Vera (#6 BW), Pedro Munhoz (#10 BW) and Andrea Lee (#13 WFW).

The UFC 292 weigh-ins are complete and everyone made weight. That’s great news for MMA fans. All 12 fights have been confirmed and all that’s left is to finalize your UFC 292 picks before the action starts.

Expert UFC 292 Picks

We have a stacked fight card and our experts have been releasing UFC 292 picks. Sign-up to Sports Hub for free to access all of our UFC 292 picks. I (SWJ Sports) went 3-3 (-$111) last week. MMA Prime went a perfect 2-0 on MMA picks last week. You don’t want to miss our plays this weekend.

Let’s get into my fight previews and Ultimate Fighting Championship picks for Saturday:

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Sterling (-270) vs. O’Malley (+220)

A lot of O’Malley (16-1-0-1) fans are keeping the price on Sterling (23-3) reasonable, but if Sterling isn’t able to finish the fight, who knows what will happen. O’Malley last fought almost a year ago (Oct. 2022) and won a controversial split decision against Petr Yan. I don’t expect this fight to go the distance.

O’Malley has 11 TKO/KO wins and is an active striker (7.43 SLpM). Sterling averages 4.78 SLpM, but he also averages 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed multiple takedowns in his last three fights.

Sterling doesn’t eat a lot of shots either (2.37 SApM). O’Malley has been working on his grappling, but he will struggle on the mat against Sterling. Sterling hasn’t been the best finisher, as he has 11 decision wins, but O’Malley has never fought in the championship rounds, which could pose a problem late in the fight.

O’Malley has one-shot KO power and Sterling has the technical edge. Who will win?

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Weili (-340) vs. Lemos (+260)

Weili (23-3) went 2-0 last year, with wins against Joanna Jedrzejczyk (R2 KO) and Carla Esparza (R2 Submission). Lemos (13-2-1) went 2-1 last year and is coming off a win against Marina Rodriguez (R3 TKO). Lemos has only gone the distance three times in her career and never fought past round 3.

Weili has gone a full five rounds twice in her career and four of her nine UFC fights have ended up going the distance. Lemos has power (8 TKO/KO wins) and a 2” reach advantage (65” vs. 63”). She’ll look to knock out her opponent and Weili is hittable (4.06 SApM), plus she has been knocked out once before.

Lemos averages 4.51 SLpM and 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Weili averages 5.79 SLpM and 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. Lemos is a threat to finish this fight, but Weili will have the edge as the fight progresses, as she has better cardio, wrestling and technical striking.

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Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Magny (+355) vs. Garry (-520)

A win for Garry (12-0) would elevate him in the welterweight rankings, but Magny (28-10) is a gatekeeper and is always a live underdog. Garry has 7 TKO/KO wins and averages 6.85 SLpM. Magny has only lost two fights by TKO/KO. He struggles against fighters that can land submissions (six submission losses).

Magny averages 3.52 SLpM and only 2.25 SApM. He’ll have a 6” reach advantage (80” vs. 74”). He also averages 2.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and Garry only has 63% takedown defense. I’m not quite sold on Garry and Magny is a warrior. Garry has gone the distance in two of his five UFC fights and Magny hasn’t been knocked out since 2018. I’m betting on this fight going the distance.

Best Bet: Fight Goes the Distance (+130)

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Vera (-185) vs. Munhoz (+155)

Vera (20-8-1) had a four-fight win streak snapped with a split decision against Cory Sandhagen. Munhoz (20-7-0-2) is 2-4-0-1 in his last seven fights, but he’s coming off a decision win against Chris Gutierrez.

Munhoz eats too many shots (5.90 SApM) when he should spend more time grappling. Vera will have a 5” reach advantage (70” vs. 65”) and he averages 4.09 SLpM. Vera has 16 wins by stoppage, but three of his last five fights have gone the distance. Munhoz has never been stopped in his MMA career.

Can Munhoz cash as a dog? Login to Sports Hub to check out all of my UFC 292 picks.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Weidman (+215) vs. Tavares (-265)

Weidman (15-6) is making his return after suffering a leg injury against Uriah Hall in April 2021. Weidman has been knocked out in six of his last eight fights. He won the other two fights. Tavares (19-8) is on a 2-4 run and he has lost two in a row. He was knocked out in two of the four losses.

Tavares hasn’t finished a fight since defeating Krzysztof Jotko by TKO in 2018. Weidman averages 3.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Tavares has 80% takedown defense. Weidman will have a 4” reach edge. This is a tough fight to predict, as both veterans have struggled in recent years.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Rodrigues (-365) vs. Tiuliulin (+275)

Rodrigues (13-5) is a strong fighter at middleweight, but he needs to be more defensive. He just suffered a KO loss against Bruno Ferreira back in January. Tiuliulin (10-7-0-1) is 1-2 in the UFC. He was tapped out twice and defeated Jamie Pickett by TKO. Rodrigues would be smart to take this fight to the mat (2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes), as the Russian can finish a fight quickly (9 TKO/KO wins).

The loss to Ferreira is concerning, but Rodrigues is more talented and has fought tougher competition.

Best Bet: Rodrigues by Stoppage (-225)

Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Hubbard (-185) vs. Holobaugh (+155)

Hubbard (15-6) and Holobaugh (19-7-0-1) have both been cut by the UFC previously and are coming off two wins outside of the biggest MMA promotion. Hubbard typically grinds out decisions. Holobaugh is a finisher (16 stoppage wins). If Holobaugh can keep it standing, he could pull off a UFC 292 upset.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

UFC 292 Picks – Best Parlay Bet

There are lots of options for UFC 292 parlays this weekend. My best parlay is on the main event and co-main event going the distance, which pays close to even money. Both fights are five rounds and I expect to see some finishes. To get plus money odds, add Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin to end by stoppage.

Sterling/O’Malley ITD – Weili/Lemos ITD – Rodrigues/Tiuliulin ITD (+130 Odds)

UFC 292 Odds

Here are the odds for all 12 fights on the UFC 292 card on Saturday:

  • Aljamain Sterling (-270) vs. Sean O’Malley (+220)
  • Zhang Weili (-340) vs. Amanda Lemos (+260)
  • Neil Magny (+355) vs. Ian Garry (-520)
  • Da’Mon Blackshear (+170) vs. Mario Bautista (-210)
  • Marlon Vera (-185) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+155)
  • Chris Weidman (+215) vs. Brad Tavares (-265)
  • Gregory Rodrigues (-365) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+275)
  • Austin Hubbard (-185) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+155)
  • Brad Katona (-145) vs. Cody Gibson (+115)
  • Andre Petroski (-225) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+175)
  • Andrea Lee (+240) vs. Natalia Silva (-310)
  • Karine Silva (-165) vs. Maryna Moroz (+135)

How to Access UFC 292 Picks at Sports Hub

There will be lots of UFC 292 picks released by our experts this weekend. All you need is a Sports Hub account, which is free to open with just an email. My picks are under my profile (SWJ Sports).