The Potential of the Underdog This Weekend – December 1


If you didn’t know, it’s championship weekend in college football and there is plenty of potential to bet on the underdog in many of these games. It all starts tonight with the Conference USA and Pac-12 championship games. The Pac-12 game is a rematch featuring Washington and Oregon, two teams that have College Football Playoff aspirations.

The Potential of the Underdog This Weekend - December 1
Underdog Washington faces Oregon in tonight’s Pac-12 title game

What’s interesting about tonight’s Pac-12 title game is that the Huskies are a double-digit underdog. Washington is ranked No. 3 in the latest CFP poll. The Huskies are unbeaten at 12-0 and have beaten Oregon already this season. Washington won 36-33 in mid-October. Still, the Ducks (11-1) are the favorite. The Huskies are a 10-point underdog.

The Underdog in NCAAF Championship Games

In the Thursday Night Football game last night, Seattle was a rather large 9.5-point underdog. With their eyes on the NFC playoffs, the Seahawks played a whale of a game but came up short 41-35. They did, however, cover the spread as the underdog.

Heading into tonight’s two NCAAF championship games, bettors might be inclined to back the underdog in both cases. History may be on the side of the underdog. In all conference title games since 2005, the underdog has won 53.8 percent of the time ATS. The true home or road underdog has fared better than those playing at a neutral site. That applies tonight.

The Potential of the Underdog This Weekend - December 1
New Mexico State is an 11.5-point underdog in the C-USA title game

The Conference USA game is played at the home field of the regular season champion. Tonight, that is Liberty. The Flames are 12-0 and ranked No. 24 in the latest CFP poll. Liberty opened as a 13.5-point favorite. Early betting has made New Mexico State an 11.5-point underdog currently. True road or home underdogs have won 63.2 percent of the time against the spread. That’s a number worth remembering.

The Case for the Underdog

There are plenty of other reasons why our Sports Hub experts may be backing underdogs in championship week. The MAC championship game is tomorrow and features Toledo against Miami (OH). The underdog has cashed ATS more in the MAC than any other conference. The MAC title game underdog is 12-5-1 ATS. That’s a 70 percent cover rate!

Bettors should also be aware of the ACC title game. The underdog has covered at the lowest rate in the ACC championship. Dogs are 7-11 ATS (38.9%) after Clemson demolished underdog North Carolina last year 39-10.

The unranked underdog has had success during championship week. Unranked underdogs are 14-6 ATS (70%) and have covered by a margin of almost 11 points. This fits New Mexico State tonight. It’s something worth watching.

The Potential of the Underdog This Weekend - December 1
The underdog offers value during championship week

Also, bettors should not overreact to teams that have failed to cover multiple games in a row over the latter part of the regular season. For example, Washington is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games. Underdogs who fit this situation have gone 19-4 ATS (82.6%) in a conference championship game. 

What makes this even more interesting is that conference title favorites like Oregon – 4-1 ATS in its last five – that have covered multiple games in a row are just 1-10 ATS in conference championship games. 

Experts Ready for Championship Week

Our Sports Hub expert handicappers tuned up for championship weekend with a solid performance yesterday. James Acker was our top dog leading a number of Sports Hub exclusive cappers in our top-10. Forty-four of our top-50 handicappers won at least $100 yesterday. That’s enough to get them ready for this weekend’s NCAAF championship games.

Let’s see who was at the top of the board yesterday.

The Potential of the Underdog This Weekend - December 1
James was our big winner yesterday
  • Killing it: As mentioned, James Acker was our overall leader yesterday. He hit all four of his picks – CBB, NFL, NBA, and NHL – and earned $428 overall. James has been heating up lately. Over the last three days, he is 9-2 and has won $708. He has a pick for one of tonight’s championship games. Is he backing an underdog? You’ll have to see for yourself.
  • Frankie the Fan: You’ll definitely want to check out Frankie in the members’ area. He has a pick for every single conference championship game this weekend. He is backing the underdog in some instances. You’ll have to see for yourself. Yesterday, Frankie went 3-0 and won $300. Over the last two days, Frankie is 8-3 with his picks. He is peaking at the right time.
  • Living the high life: With a name like The Bookie, you’ve got to be living the dream. He was last night as The Bookie went 4-1 on five picks and added $290 to his bankroll. The Bookie is 6-3 over the last two days and is up $1656 over the last 30. 
  • The 2-0 crew: We had four cappers go 2-0 yesterday. They were led by Sean Murphy who had the Penguins at +128 to beat Tampa Bay. Sean collected $228 in winnings. Since Nov. 21, Sean is 10-1 and has pocketed $828. Sports Hub expert Jacob Hoffman also went 2-0 and earned $204 while Gino Russo and our friends at each earned $200. Gino is No. 6 on the 30-day leaderboard, winning at a 62.3 percent clip.

Bet the Underdog on Tonight’s Schedule

Tonight’s schedule includes the two college football conference championship games I mentioned earlier. There are over 20 picks for these games in our database already. I wonder how many of those picks are backing an underdog…hmmm.

Bettors can find more than one underdog among a pretty busy Friday sports schedule. There is a giant early season college basketball game tonight and the NBA has its usual Friday night ESPN doubleheader. The underdog is out there. Sports Hub’s elite handicappers can help you find the ones worth betting on.

Here’s a look at the schedule.

  1. Conference USA championship: New Mexico State is a huge 11.5-point underdog against Liberty in the C-USA title game. Liberty is unbeaten and playing at their home stadium. NMSU is in the midst of a record-setting season at 10-3.
  2. Pac-12 title game: Despite a higher ranking, being unbeaten, and having defeated Oregon already this season, Washington is a 10-point underdog to the Ducks in tonight’s Pac-12 title tilt.
  1. Huge Friday CBB game: We don’t usually get a game like this in early December, but No. 4 UConn will travel to Allen Fieldhouse to take on No. 5 Kansas. It’s a rare meeting between the last two national champions. The Huskies were last year’s champion and the Jayhawks won the title in 2022. It’s the biggest game on today’s CBB schedule.
  2. NBA Friday doubleheader: Tonight’s doubleheader is among six games on the league’s schedule tonight. Rivals Philadelphia and Boston will meet at TD Garden in the early game. The two teams have met twice already this season. They have split the two games, which were both played in Philly.
  3. Just two games: The NHL had a full schedule last night and will have another full slate on Saturday. That means tonight’s NHL docket has just two games on it. San Jose is at New Jersey and Ottawa plays at Columbus.
  4. Elite & Lower Division soccer: Four of the world’s top soccer leagues – La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, and Serie A – all have one match on today’s schedule. A number of other second-tier leagues – English FA Cup, for example – have matches on the schedule.
  5. PGA Tour: The Hero World Challenge started yesterday. Round 2 continues today. Brian Harman and Tony Finau each shot a 5-under 67 and are tied for the lead afer the first round. Viktor Hovland is the defending champion.

What’s Hot in Sports

There are a number of hot topics in the sports world. We’ve got championship week in college football on tap this weekend. Get ready by visiting our Week 14 NCAA football picks page. Bronny James is back and Von Miller is in some hot water. The Cowboys finally got a big win and Shohei Ohtani is the big name this MLB offseason.

Let’s see what is trending in sports.

  • Championship week: It’s a crucial championship week. It could be the most awkward too. Alabama is a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC title game. The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU in their last eight against the Tide. Georgia has won 18 straight SEC games. It’s last loss? To Alabama in the 2021 SEC championship game.
  • Bronny James: LeBron’s son was cleared to play for USC, who will take on No. 11 Gonzaga on Saturday. It’s not clear whether James would play or not, but head coach Andy Enfield has said he will take it slow.
  • Miller turns himself in: Bills LB Von Miller turned himself in to police in Texas after a warrant was issued for his arrest. It is alleged that Miller and the mother of his children got into an argument that turned physical. The Bills, fortunately, have a bye this week. More to come on this story.
  • Cowboys win: For the first time this season, Dallas beat a team with a winning record. The Cowboys beat Seattle 41-35 last night behind QB Dak Prescott’s 299 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.
  • MLB free agency: There is no bigger MLB free agent than Shohei Ohtani. The two-way player was voted the top DH in the majors for the third consecutive season yesterday. He will be unable to pitch in 2024 as he recovers from UCL surgery, but he will be able to hit. Ohtani won his second AL MVP award after hitting .304 with 44 homers this season. The Dodgers are one of several teams looking to acquire Ohtani.

TGIF, right? It’s Friday and we’ve got championship college football tonight and tomorrow. We’ve got the NFL on Sunday and a schedule stacked full of betting opportunities. If you’re wondering which CFB underdog to bet tonight (or tomorrow), check our database. If you’re not a Sports Hub member, get one…stat! Good luck tonight and stop back tomorrow for a recap of today’s top cappers and a look at the sports world.