SportsHub.com will be bringing you weekly PGA picks and we start this week with 2023 Valspar Championship picks.
The final tournament of the early Florida swing of the PGA Tour is headed to the Copperhead Course at Palm Harbor, Florida at the Innsbrook Resort. History could be made as Sam Burns is set to go for three in a row and he comes in as one of the favorites at +1600.
Burns carded the win here in 2021 after the event was canceled due to the pandemic in 2020. Then he won it again in 2022! Now Burns is aiming to claim the victory for the third year in a row, which is a historically tough task. Only a few legendary golfers, including Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, and Arnold Palmer have managed to pull the feat off.
2023 Valspar Championship Picks
In addition to the inherent difficulty, Burns must get out in front of an odds list packed full of solid players. Some including Justin Thomas, who is the lone favorite at +1000. Here are the favorites through +1600 to win the 2023 Valspar Championship outright. Will any of these be included in our 2023 Valspar Championship picks?
Justin Thomas +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Sam Burns +1600
Matt Fitzpatrick +1600
This is a week where you can probably find some value down the odds list. The Valspar is packed with great players, but it is missing some of the biggest names in the game after THE PLAYERS. The complete odds list is below.
2023 Valspar Championship Info & Handicapping Notes
Where: Palm Harbor, Florida
Course: Innisbrook Resort / Copperhead Course
Format: Stroke Play
Par: 71
Length: 7,340
When: March 16 – 19
Purse: $8.1 Million.
TV Coverage: NBC/Golf/Peacock/ESPN+
There are a few things to know about Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course. This venue has made for some eventful – and close – finishes over the years. Consider this when ,making your 2023 Valspar Championship picks.
Some of that drama can be attributed to a stretch of holes known as the “Snake Pit.” That includes a long Par 3 sandwiched between two tough par four holes. The fairways demand accurate shots off the tees as wayward balls often find unforgiving rough.
The greens are well protected on this Larry Packard-designed course but low scoring is still possible. The design seems to keep anyone from running away with things. Since 2000 when this event started, the margin of victory has been decided by a playoff or one stroke eleven times.
This event has been won twice by four different players. Sam Burns and Paul Casey are the only two players to win in back-to-back years. The largest margin of victory was achieved by K. J. Choi by 7 strokes over the field. Choi has also won this event twice but did not do it in back-to-back years.
2023 Valspar Championship Picks & Favorites
Here are some of the players to consider this week for your 2023 Valspar Championship picks. As noted above, this tournament can be tight when it comes to winning by more than one stroke. That’s backed up by the numbers on the odds list. There are 23 well-known PGA Tour pros coming in between +3000 through +7000.
Justin Thomas +1000
Justin Thomas comes into the opening round as the lone favorite at +1000. Thomas is the reigning PGA Championship title holder. He’s moved to the 10th spot on the OWGR and is currently 66th in FedEx points. He has made it to the weekend in every event he’s played in this season.
The downside with Thomas is that he is coming off a tough week at the PLAYERS where he finished T60. Regardless, oddsmakers see him as one of the top sticks in the field.
Sam Burns +1600
Two years ago, Sam Burns outperformed Keegan Bradley when the Valspar Championship returned from a COVID year off. Then, he came here last season and defeated Davis Riley in a two-hole playoff.
Burns has five top-15 finishes on his record so far this season and placed T35 at THE PLAYERS the previous week. Among them is a T6 from the Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. The downside; Burns has not been as hot as he was at this time last year but he plays great at Copperhead. Be careful if he’s one of your 2023 Valspar Championship picks.
Keegan Bradley +2200
In the Valspar Championship in 2021, Keegan Bradley tried to put Sam Burns on the ropes but he settled for a second-place finish. Bradley already has carded a TOUR win this season when he won the ZOZO Championship. Then he scored a second-place result at the Farmers, and has banked six top-25 finishes this season. He is presently fourth in FedEx points.
The downside; Bradley enters the competition after having a difficult performance at THE PLAYERS, where he missed the weekend.
2023 Valspar Championship Picks – Players to Watch
Justin Rose +2200
Justin Rose has seen some ups and downs in recent seasons, but he is still a recent U.S. Open champion with a long history of PGA Tour triumphs. He already has one victory this year, which came at Pebble Beach, and T6 last week at THE PLAYERS.
Rose can be deadly with his driver when it’s on point, which is a significant advantage at Copperhead. That’s proven by history on the Copperhead course as he has five top-15 finishes. The downside; Rose has three missed cuts this season with two coming before his T6 last week.
Justin Suh +3500
Justin Suh has been busy this season as he’s already played in 15 events this season. During that stretch, he has only missed three cuts which all came during his first three outings. Since then he’s made the weekend in every outing with a solid T5 at the Honda Classic and a T6 last week at THE PLAYERS.
He has moved to the 66th spot in FedEx points and is well inside the top 100 on the OWGR at No. 77. The downside; Suh has been a bit inconsistent at times this season but that may have been due to a slight shoulder injury that forced him out of Pebble Beach.
Brandon Wu +5000
Brandon Wu, like Suh, has already played in 15 events this season and has recently put his game into a higher gear. He finished T19 last week at THE PLAYERS which should be a huge confidence boost. He also carded a T15 at the Honda Classic two weeks ago.
Wu has begun to show his strength with his putter as he is 100% with his putter from 3’ and 8th in total birdies. The downside if you’re considering him as one of your 2023 Valspar Championship picks; Wu has missed three cuts this season and all of them have been in his last seven outings.
2023 Valspar Championship Odds
* odds are subject to change
Justin Thomas +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Sam Burns +1600
Matt Fitzpatrick +1600
Keegan Bradley +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Justin Rose +2200
Adam Hadwin +2200
Davis Riley +3000
Denny McCarthy +3300
Brian Harman +3300
Wyndham Clark +3300
Justin Suh +3500
Gary Woodland +4000
Maverick McNealy +4000
Ben Griffin +4500
Brandon Wu +5000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +5000
Aaron Rai +5000
Taylor Moore +5000
Victor Perez +6000
JT Poston +6000
Stephan Jaeger +6000
Byeong-Hun An +6000
Joel Dahmen +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6600
Nick Taylor +6600
Will Gordon +6600
Beau Hossler +6600
Luke List +6600
Nate Lashley +6600
Luke Donald +7000
Garrick Higgo +7500
Tyler Duncan +7500
Robby Shelton+8000
Webb Simpson +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Ludvig Aberg +8000
Eric Cole +8000
Ben Martin +8000
Ryan Gerard +8000
Sam Ryder +9000
Matthew Nesmith +9000
Alex Smalley +9000
Lee Hodges +9000
Pierceson Coody +10000
Joseph Bramlett +10000
David Lingmerth +10000
Patrick Rodgers +10000
Ben Taylor +10000
S.H. Kim +10000
Trey Mullinax +10000
Dylan Frittelli +10000
Nick Hardy +12500
Adam Schenk +12500
Mark Hubbard +12500
Kramer Hickok +12500
David Lipsky +12500
Sam Stevens +12500
Kevin Kisner +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Kevin Streelman +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Nicolas Echavarria +15000
Michael Kim +15000
Harry Hall +15000
Troy Merritt +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Erik Van Rooyen +15000
Chad Ramey +15000
Austin Smotherman +15000
Russell Knox +15000
Carson Young +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Stewart Cink +17500
Dylan Wu +17500
Chesson Hadley +17500
M-J Daffue +17500
Greyson Sigg +17500
Harry Higgs +17500
Adam Long +17500
Patton Kizzire +17500
Matthias Schwab +17500
Vincent Norrman +20000
Ryan Moore +20000
Henrik Norlander +20000
Cameron Champ +20000
Tano Goya +20000
Matti Schmid +20000
Lucas Glover +20000
Zach Johnson +20000
Augusto Nunez +20000
Peter Malnati +20000
John VanDerLaan +20000
Kevin Tway +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Justin Lower +20000
Carl Yuan +20000
Nick Gabrelcik +20000
Andrew Novak +25000
Ryan Armour +25000
James Hahn +25000
Cole Hammer +25000
Harrison Endycott +25000
Austin Eckroat +25000
Erik Barnes +25000
Chez Reavie +30000
Paul Haley +30000
Austin Cook +30000
Doc Redman +30000
Brent Grant +30000
Jason Dufner +30000
Jimmy Walker +30000
Zac Blair +30000
Wesley Bryan +30000
Robert Streb +30000
Brian Stuard +30000
Kyle Stanley +30000
Brice Garnett +35000
Kevin Roy +35000
Ze-Cheng Dou +35000
Jim Herman +35000
Rory Sabbatini +35000
Tyson Alexander +35000
Kyle Westmoreland +40000
Cody Gribble +40000
Andrew Landry +40000
Anders Albertson +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Trevor Werbylo +50000
Scott Harrington +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Brandon Matthews +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Michael Gligic +50000
Trevor Cone +50000
J.B. Holmes +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Greg Koch +70000
