PGA 2023 Valspar Championship Picks, Preview & Odds

Updated: will be bringing you weekly PGA picks and we start this week with 2023 Valspar Championship picks.

The final tournament of the early Florida swing of the PGA Tour is headed to the Copperhead Course at Palm Harbor, Florida at the Innsbrook Resort. History could be made as Sam Burns is set to go for three in a row and he comes in as one of the favorites at +1600.

Burns carded the win here in 2021 after the event was canceled due to the pandemic in 2020. Then he won it again in 2022! Now Burns is aiming to claim the victory for the third year in a row, which is a historically tough task. Only a few legendary golfers, including Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, and Arnold Palmer have managed to pull the feat off.

2023 Valspar Championship Picks

In addition to the inherent difficulty, Burns must get out in front of an odds list packed full of solid players. Some including Justin Thomas, who is the lone favorite at +1000. Here are the favorites through +1600 to win the 2023 Valspar Championship outright. Will any of these be included in our 2023 Valspar Championship picks?

Justin Thomas +1000

Jordan Spieth +1200

Sam Burns +1600

Matt Fitzpatrick +1600

This is a week where you can probably find some value down the odds list. The Valspar is packed with great players, but it is missing some of the biggest names in the game after THE PLAYERS. The complete odds list is below.

2023 Valspar Championship Info & Handicapping Notes

Where: Palm Harbor, Florida

Course: Innisbrook Resort / Copperhead Course

Format: Stroke Play

Par: 71

Length: 7,340

When: March 16 – 19

Purse: $8.1 Million.

TV Coverage: NBC/Golf/Peacock/ESPN+

There are a few things to know about Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course. This venue has made for some eventful – and close – finishes over the years. Consider this when ,making your 2023 Valspar Championship picks.

Some of that drama can be attributed to a stretch of holes known as the “Snake Pit.” That includes a long Par 3 sandwiched between two tough par four holes. The fairways demand accurate shots off the tees as wayward balls often find unforgiving rough.

The greens are well protected on this Larry Packard-designed course but low scoring is still possible. The design seems to keep anyone from running away with things. Since 2000 when this event started, the margin of victory has been decided by a playoff or one stroke eleven times.

This event has been won twice by four different players. Sam Burns and Paul Casey are the only two players to win in back-to-back years. The largest margin of victory was achieved by K. J. Choi by 7 strokes over the field. Choi has also won this event twice but did not do it in back-to-back years.

2023 Valspar Championship Picks & Favorites

Here are some of the players to consider this week for your 2023 Valspar Championship picks. As noted above, this tournament can be tight when it comes to winning by more than one stroke. That’s backed up by the numbers on the odds list. There are 23 well-known PGA Tour pros coming in between +3000 through +7000.

Justin Thomas +1000

Justin Thomas comes into the opening round as the lone favorite at +1000. Thomas is the reigning PGA Championship title holder. He’s moved to the 10th spot on the OWGR and is currently 66th in FedEx points. He has made it to the weekend in every event he’s played in this season.

The downside with Thomas is that he is coming off a tough week at the PLAYERS where he finished T60. Regardless, oddsmakers see him as one of the top sticks in the field. 

Sam Burns +1600

Two years ago, Sam Burns outperformed Keegan Bradley when the Valspar Championship returned from a COVID year off. Then, he came here last season and defeated Davis Riley in a two-hole playoff.

Burns has five top-15 finishes on his record so far this season and placed T35 at THE PLAYERS the previous week. Among them is a T6 from the Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. The downside; Burns has not been as hot as he was at this time last year but he plays great at Copperhead. Be careful if he’s one of your 2023 Valspar Championship picks.

Keegan Bradley +2200

In the Valspar Championship in 2021, Keegan Bradley tried to put Sam Burns on the ropes but he settled for a second-place finish. Bradley already has carded a TOUR win this season when he won the ZOZO Championship. Then he scored a second-place result at the Farmers, and has banked six top-25 finishes this season. He is presently fourth in FedEx points.

The downside; Bradley enters the competition after having a difficult performance at THE PLAYERS, where he missed the weekend.

2023 Valspar Championship Picks – Players to Watch

Justin Rose +2200

Justin Rose has seen some ups and downs in recent seasons, but he is still a recent U.S. Open champion with a long history of PGA Tour triumphs. He already has one victory this year, which came at Pebble Beach, and T6 last week at THE PLAYERS.

Rose can be deadly with his driver when it’s on point, which is a significant advantage at Copperhead. That’s proven by history on the Copperhead course as he has five top-15 finishes. The downside; Rose has three missed cuts this season with two coming before his T6 last week.

Justin Suh +3500

Justin Suh has been busy this season as he’s already played in 15 events this season. During that stretch, he has only missed three cuts which all came during his first three outings. Since then he’s made the weekend in every outing with a solid T5 at the Honda Classic and a T6 last week at THE PLAYERS.

He has moved to the 66th spot in FedEx points and is well inside the top 100 on the OWGR at No. 77. The downside; Suh has been a bit inconsistent at times this season but that may have been due to a slight shoulder injury that forced him out of Pebble Beach.

Brandon Wu +5000

Brandon Wu, like Suh, has already played in 15 events this season and has recently put his game into a higher gear. He finished T19 last week at THE PLAYERS which should be a huge confidence boost. He also carded a T15 at the Honda Classic two weeks ago.

Wu has begun to show his strength with his putter as he is 100% with his putter from 3’ and 8th in total birdies. The downside if you’re considering him as one of your 2023 Valspar Championship picks; Wu has missed three cuts this season and all of them have been in his last seven outings.

2023 Valspar Championship Odds

* odds are subject to change

Justin Thomas +1000

Jordan Spieth +1200

Sam Burns +1600

Matt Fitzpatrick +1600

Keegan Bradley +2200

Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Justin Rose +2200

Adam Hadwin +2200

Davis Riley +3000

Denny McCarthy +3300

Brian Harman +3300

Wyndham Clark +3300

Justin Suh +3500

Gary Woodland +4000

Maverick McNealy +4000

Ben Griffin +4500

Brandon Wu +5000

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +5000

Aaron Rai +5000

Taylor Moore +5000

Victor Perez +6000

JT Poston +6000

Stephan Jaeger +6000

Byeong-Hun An +6000

Joel Dahmen +6000

Jhonattan Vegas +6600

Nick Taylor +6600

Will Gordon +6600

Beau Hossler +6600

Luke List +6600

Nate Lashley +6600

Luke Donald +7000

Garrick Higgo +7500

Tyler Duncan +7500

Robby Shelton+8000

Webb Simpson +8000

Akshay Bhatia +8000

Ludvig Aberg +8000

Eric Cole +8000

Ben Martin +8000

Ryan Gerard +8000

Sam Ryder +9000

Matthew Nesmith +9000

Alex Smalley +9000

Lee Hodges +9000

Pierceson Coody +10000

Joseph Bramlett +10000

David Lingmerth +10000

Patrick Rodgers +10000

Ben Taylor +10000

S.H. Kim +10000

Trey Mullinax +10000

Dylan Frittelli +10000

Nick Hardy +12500

Adam Schenk +12500

Mark Hubbard +12500

Kramer Hickok +12500

David Lipsky +12500

Sam Stevens +12500

Kevin Kisner +12500

Martin Laird +12500

Kevin Streelman +15000

Matt Wallace +15000

Nicolas Echavarria +15000

Michael Kim +15000

Harry Hall +15000

Troy Merritt +15000

Charley Hoffman +15000

Erik Van Rooyen +15000

Chad Ramey +15000

Austin Smotherman +15000

Russell Knox +15000

Carson Young +15000

Doug Ghim +15000

Stewart Cink +17500

Dylan Wu +17500

Chesson Hadley +17500

M-J Daffue +17500

Greyson Sigg +17500

Harry Higgs +17500

Adam Long +17500

Patton Kizzire +17500

Matthias Schwab +17500

Vincent Norrman +20000

Ryan Moore +20000

Henrik Norlander +20000

Cameron Champ +20000

Tano Goya +20000

Matti Schmid +20000

Lucas Glover +20000

Zach Johnson +20000

Augusto Nunez +20000

Peter Malnati +20000

John VanDerLaan +20000

Kevin Tway +20000

Michael Thompson +20000

Justin Lower +20000

Carl Yuan +20000

Nick Gabrelcik +20000

Andrew Novak +25000

Ryan Armour +25000

James Hahn +25000

Cole Hammer +25000

Harrison Endycott +25000

Austin Eckroat +25000

Erik Barnes +25000

Chez Reavie +30000

Paul Haley +30000

Austin Cook +30000

Doc Redman +30000

Brent Grant +30000

Jason Dufner +30000

Jimmy Walker +30000

Zac Blair +30000

Wesley Bryan +30000

Robert Streb +30000

Brian Stuard +30000

Kyle Stanley +30000

Brice Garnett +35000

Kevin Roy +35000

Ze-Cheng Dou +35000

Jim Herman +35000

Rory Sabbatini +35000

Tyson Alexander +35000

Kyle Westmoreland +40000

Cody Gribble +40000

Andrew Landry +40000

Anders Albertson +50000

Richy Werenski +50000

Trevor Werbylo +50000

Scott Harrington +50000

Kelly Kraft +50000

Brandon Matthews +50000

Ryan Brehm +50000

Michael Gligic +50000

Trevor Cone +50000

J.B. Holmes +50000

Max McGreevy +50000

Greg Koch +70000