ONE 165 Predictions, Odds and Preview

We have expert ONE 165 predictions for Sunday’s MMA fight card. ONE Championship 165 is going to be hosted at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan on Sunday and is available on pay-per-view (PPV).

Most sportsbooks haven’t released ONE 165 odds yet, but they’re available. There are 11 fights on the card and we have uncovered the best ONE 165 predictions that are offering value (+EV).

There are going to be multiple fighting disciplines on display at ONE 165, including MMA, kickboxing, submission grappling and special rules. The special rules fight on the card will feature one round of boxing, muay thai and mixed martial arts. If the fight goes the distance, it’ll be ruled a draw.

ONE Championship 165 Preview

When: Sunday, January 28th 2024

Where: Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan

Time: 3:00 AM ET

Watch: Pay-Per-View (PPV)

This is a stacked MMA card, with some names most of you will be familiar with. Sage Northcutt is on the card. He was a promising UFC prospect several years ago. He’s still just 27 years old. Northcutt was 6-2 in the UFC. There are also two title fights on the ONE Championship 165 card this weekend.

Superlek Kiatmoo9 will put his ONE Flyweight Kickboxing World Championship title on the line against Takeru Segawa. Segawa is a three-division K1 World Champion. Kade Ruotolo will look to defend his ONE Lightweight Submission Grappling World Championship title against Tommy Langaker.

Let’s jump into my ONE 165 predictions for Sunday’s MMA card.

Expert ONE 165 Predictions

Currently, there are only moneyline odds available for ONE 165 this weekend. That will make betting on some favorites risky, but you can also parlay together multiple ONE 165 predictions to get a better price. 

I’ve been analyzing the odds and the best prices are with the Asian bookies in some cases. You’ll get a lot better ONE 165 odds by shopping around. I’ll list where you can find the best odds with all of my ONE 165 predictions (odds are subject to change and fluctuate constantly based on bet volume).

The odds vary quite a bit depending upon where you bet. I’m going to list the fight odds from DraftKings (Legal in the USA), but I’m also going to list where I’ve seen the best odds for my ONE 165 predictions.

Superlek Kiatmoo9 vs. Takeru Segawa Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Superlek (-170) vs. Segawa (+142)

Superlek (135-29) is favored to defeat Segawa (41-3) in the main event, but Segawa will have the crowd support in Japan. Superlek is undefeated (8-0) with ONE and he has finished his opponent in three of his last four fights. Superlek has finished four of his eight ONE opponents (50% finish rate).

Segawa is making his ONE Championship debut. Both guys have vicious striking and excellent defense, so this fight isn’t likely to end too quickly. Segawa could lead early if he starts fast, but Superlek will be able to utilize his power advantage as the fight progresses to damage his opponent.

I have Superlek winning this fight and I expect it to go the distance, but a TKO wouldn’t surprise me. This is going to be a close fight, but I’m backing the champion on my ONE 165 predictions.

Best Bet: Superlek Kiatmoo9 to Win (-150) at Betway

Kade Ruotolo vs. Tommy Langaker Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Ruotolo (-470) vs. Langaker (+360)

Ruotolo (25-2) is undefeated (4-0) with ONE. He defeated Langaker last June at ONE Fight Night 11. He will be confident of winning again, but the first grappling fight was close and Ruotolo is a huge favorite.

Langaker is 2-1 with ONE, with one submission win. Ruotolo also has one submission win with ONE. In the first fight, Ruotolo maintained top position for large periods of time. Langaker will need to be more aggressive to upset the favorite, which I’m not sure he’ll be able to do. If he’s on his back, he’s in trouble.

One of the safest ONE 165 predictions is for Ruotolo to win on Sunday. The Asian bookies have Ruotolo priced around -700 or higher, so we’re actually getting good value on the favorite at DraftKings.

Best Bet: Kade Ruotolo to Win (-470) at DraftKings

Shinya Aoki vs. Sage Northcutt Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Aoki (+275) vs. Northcutt (-345)

Aoki (47-11-0-1) is 1-4 with ONE and he has lost four consecutive fights. He has lost three of his last four fights by stoppage. Northcutt (12-3) is 1-1 with ONE. He was knocked out by Cosmo Alexandre in brutal fashion back in 2019. After healing from his injuries, he came back last year and won his first fight back.

Northcutt is a UFC veteran that was expected to climb the rankings. He has solid leg kicks and he’s a lot more powerful than Aoki. Aoki is 40 years old and needs to hang up the MMA gloves. One of my best ONE 165 predictions is on Northcutt to win. I like him to win by TKO/KO and will target that market if odds become available. Aoki is a submission specialist, but he won’t be able to close the distance here.

Best Bet: Sage Northcutt to Win (-303) at DafaBet

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Nieky Holzken Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Akiyama (+142) vs. Holzken (-170)

Akiyama (16-7-0-2) will fight Holzken (94-18) under special rules. As mentioned previously, if these guys go the distance, the fight will end in a draw. To win, a fighter needs to finish his opponent.

Akiyama won his ONE debut last year against Aoki (TKO). Holzken is 1-2 with ONE and he has lost his last two fights. The Asian bookies have this fight priced at nearly a toss up, but we can get +142 odds on the underdog at DraftKings. Akiyama has power and Holzken was knocked out two fights ago.

I’m backing the underdog for my ONE 165 predictions, as the value is too enticing.

Best Bet: Yoshihiro Akiyama to Win (+142) at DraftKings

Garry Tonon vs. Martin Nguyen Prediction

  • Fight Odds: Tonon (-278) vs. Nguyen (+225)

Tonon (8-1) is 2-1 with ONE. He lost his debut, but bounced back with wins against Johnny Nunez and Shamil Gasanov by submission. Tonon is a submission specialist, but he has got himself in trouble in previous fights by focusing on locking in a submission. Thanh Le knocked him out in 2022.

Nguyen (15-6) has extreme power and he hasn’t been tapped out since 2016. Nguyen is 1-1 with ONE. Can Nguyen land enough shots to finish Tonon before he locks in a submission? I think this fight is a lot closer than the odds indicate and I’m betting on Nguyen on my ONE 165 predictions.

I expect this fight to end by stoppage as well, so if you find odds for that, hammer it.

Best Bet: Martin Nguyen to Win (+225) at DraftKings

That wraps up my ONE 165 predictions. We’ll close out the article with ONE 165 odds for every fight.

ONE 165 Odds

Here are the ONE 165 odds for all 11 fights on the card (Odds are from DraftKings):

  • Superlek Kiatmoo9 (-170) vs. Takeru Segawa (+142)
  • Kade Ruotolo (-470) vs. Tommy Langaker (+360)
  • Shinya Aiko (+275) vs. Sage Northcutt (-345)
  • Yoshihiro Akiyama (+142) vs. Nieky Holzken (-170)
  • Marat Grigorian (-175) vs. Sitthichai Sitsongpeenong (+145)
  • Garry Tonon (-278) vs. Martin Nguyen (+225)
  • Itsuki Hirata (-225) vs. Ayaka Miura (+185)
  • Danny Kingad (-198) vs. Yuya Wakamatsu (+164)
  • Rade Opacic (-175) vs. Iraj Azizpour (+145)
  • Bokang Masunyane (-198) vs. Keito Yamakita (+164)
  • Hiroba Minowa (+110) vs. Gustavo Balart (-130)

Make sure you shop around for the best odds before making your ONE 165 predictions this weekend.