Expert Monday Night Football Picks for Week 5

Updated:

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-3 / 1-3 ATS) host the Green Bay Packers (2-2 / 3-1 ATS) on MNF Week 5.

Here are the top storylines to consider when making your Monday Night Football picks:

  • Davante Adams Reunion: This is the first game Adams has played against his old team. Adams has 33 receptions (50 targets) for 397 yards and 3 TDs this season. In eight MNF games, Adams has averaged 5.9 receptions for 83.1 receiving yards and 0.8 TDs per game.
  • Jimmy G on MNF: Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to suit up this week after missing Week 4. He has performed great on Monday Night Football. Garoppolo is 4-1 (4-1 ATS) on MNF in games he starts. He has averaged 191.3 passing yards, 1.8 passing TDs and 0.2 INTs on MNF.
  • Betting Trends: The Packers are 1-1 (2-0 ATS) on the road this season. GB have covered four consecutive road games dating back to last season. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 0-2 ATS in their last two games at home. Will the trends hold up?

Monday Night Football Odds for Week 5

Early action has been essentially split for the Packers vs. Raiders matchup on MNF Week 5.

  • Opening Odds: Packers -1 (-115 ML) vs. Raiders +1 (-105 ML) / Total: 43.5 Points
  • Current Odds: Packers +1 (-105 ML) vs. Raiders -1 (-115 ML) / Total: 45 Points

The Raiders are currently small favorites at home and we’re unlikely to see much line movement before Monday night. The game total has jumped 1.5 points, with action basically split on the over and under.

Best Monday Night Football Picks – Packers vs. Raiders

Here are my best Monday Night Football picks for the Packers vs. Raiders matchup:

  • Best Moneyline Pick: Green Bay Packers (-105)

The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense this season. They’re averaging 216.5 PYPG (15th), 65.3 RYPG (32nd) and 15.5 PPG (T25) on offense. Josh Jacobs has 166 rushing yards on 62 carries (2.7 yards per carry) and he only has one touchdown after the first four weeks of the season.

Defensively, the Packers allow 197.3 PYPG (11th), 155.3 RYPG (30th) and 24.0 PPG (20th). They’re also averaging 2.8 sacks per game (T16) and have four forced turnovers (T20). Turnovers have been an issue for the Raiders offense, as they already have ten turnovers (T30). Garoppolo has six INTs in three starts.

Jordan Love threw two INTs for the first time in a game last week. As a team, the Packers have turned the football over three times (T7) this season. The Packers offense averages 206.3 PYPG (19th), 74.5 RYPG and 25.0 PPG (T10). Las Vegas average 1.8 sacks per game (T26) and have forced one turnover (31st).

On defense, the Raiders allow 202.8 PYPG (13th), 134.3 RYPG (26th) and 25.3 PPG (24th). Green Bay will look to establish the run. AJ Dillon leads the team with 118 rushing yards, but he’s only averaging 2.7 yards per carry. His longest rush this season is just 14 yards and he hasn’t found the end zone yet.

Aaron Jones has been limited this week and may be on a snap count. Christian Watson played in his first game of the season last week and played 26 of 57 offensive snaps. Jones and Watson are both expected to play on Monday Night Football. When healthy, this Packers offense has a lot of depth.

  • Best Game Total Pick: Under 45 Points

My money is on this game being low scoring. The Packers have gone over in three of four games, while the Raiders have gone under in three of four games to start the season. Las Vegas haven’t scored more than 18 points in a game yet. They’ve also played pretty good defense except against the Bills.

The Packers have scored 18 points and 20 points the last two weeks. Green Bay exploded for 38 points against the Bears, but everyone has been scoring on the Chicago defense. There are also quite a few guys banged up at the skill positions for both teams, which will limit the offense in this game.

I expect both teams to run the football, which will eat up the clock. Both teams rank among the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The Raiders are allowing 1.0 rushing TDs per game (T18) and the Packers are allowing 1.3 rushing TDs per game (T22). I don’t expect much out of either QB in this matchup.

  • Best Player Props Pick: Jayden Reed Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Until the sportsbooks adjust, I recommend to keep backing Reed to go over in receiving yards. Reed has had 5+ targets in every game. He had five targets last week with Watson back in the lineup. The rookie is producing. He has 12 receptions for 203 yards and 2 TDs through the first four games.

Reed has had 37+ receiving yards in all four games this season. He also has a 30+ yard in three of four games. He’s a big play threat that could cash this player prop with a single reception on MNF.

  • Best Team Prop Pick: Packers to Not Lose a Fumble (-160)

Las Vegas haven’t had a fumble recovery yet this season. The Packers haven’t lost a fumble yet. We’re paying up for this bet, but there’s a good chance the Packers won’t fumble on MNF. At -160 odds, the implied probability is 61.5% and I would put the chance of a Packers fumble at less than 30%.

Dillon and Jones do a good job protecting the football. Dillon has only lost one fumble in his career (2021) and Jones has lost seven fumbles in his career. Jones lost three fumbles last season.

Monday Night Football Betting Trends and Results

  • MNF Week 4 Score: Seahawks (24) vs. Giants (3)

There was only one game on Monday Night Football last week. The Seahawks easily covered ATS, as the Giants only scored a single field goal. The game also went under the total.

I went 2-2 on my Monday Night Football picks for Week 4. I’m 12-10-2 on MNF picks this season.

Here are the updated Monday Night Football betting trends:

  • Favorites: 4-2 (2-2-2 ATS)
  • Home Favorites: 1-0 (0-0-1 ATS)
  • Away Favorites: 3-2 (2-2-1 ATS)
  • Underdogs: 2-4 (2-2-2 ATS)
  • Home Underdogs: 2-3 (2-2-1 ATS)
  • Away Underdogs: 0-1 (0-0-1 ATS)
  • Home Teams: 3-3 (2-2-2 ATS)
  • Away Teams: 3-3 (2-2-2 ATS)
  • Game Totals: Over (1) vs. Under (5)