CFL Week 11 Picks

Updated:

It’s time to get our CFL Week 11 picks finalized. There are four games on the Canadian Football League schedule this week, starting with the Tiger-Cats hosting the Elks tonight.

The Argonauts (7-1 / 7-1 ATS) have the best record in the CFL and are on a bye week.

CFL Week 10 Results and Betting Recap

Here are the results from CFL Week 10 action:

  • Blue Bombers 38 vs. Elks 29 – Elks (+12.5) Covered ATS and Over 45
  • Roughriders 12 vs. Alouettes 41 – Alouettes (-5) Covered ATS and Over 44.5
  • Stampeders 9 vs. Lions 37 – Lions (-6.5) Covered ATS and Over 45.5
  • Redblacks 31 vs. Argonauts 44 – Argonauts (-10) Covered ATS and Over 44.5

Favorites went 4-0 (3-1 ATS) and are now 24-14 (21-16-1 ATS) on the season. There were lots of points scored in Week 10, with all four games going over the total. The over/under record this season is now at 18-21. I ended up going 2-2 (-$20) in Week 10, but seven Sports Hub cappers were profitable last week.

I’ll look to bounce back with my CFL Week 11 picks.

Expert CFL Week 11 Picks

You need a Sports Hub account to access our CFL Week 11 picks. All of my CFL Week 11 picks will be under my profile (SWJ Sports) and you can access other Canadian Football League picks by going to the “Games” tab and clicking on the CFL games you want to bet on this week.

Let’s jump into my CFL Week 11 picks and start analyzing the matchups.

Elks vs. Tiger-Cats Prediction for Week 11

  • When: Thursday, August 17th 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ontario
  • Opening Spread: Tiger-Cats -4 / Current Spread: Tiger-Cats -5.5
  • Opening Total: 46.5 Points / Current Total: 44.5 Points

The Edmonton Elks (0-9 / 3-6 ATS) were up 22-10 at halftime last week, but the Blue Bombers stormed back and the Elks remain winless. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-5 / 3-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week.

Edmonton have been terrible. The Elks are scoring 14.9 PPG (9th) and allowing 27.8 PPG (8th). They’re ranked last in yards gained (297.6 YPG) and yards allowed (400.3 YPG). Hamilton are scoring 20.0 PPG (7th) and allowing 28.0 PPG (9th). In two starts, QB Taylor Powell has 3 INTs and 0 passing TDs.

Teams coming off a bye week are 9-2 (9-2 ATS) this season, which bodes well for Hamilton. The Ti-Cats also defeated the Elks in Week 6 (37-29) in Edmonton. The last three head-to-head games have gone over the total. I’m betting on the Tiger-Cats to get a much needed win to keep pace in the East.

Best Bet: Hamilton Tiger-Cats -5.5 (-110)

Blue Bombers vs. Stampeders Prediction for Week 11

  • When: Friday, August 18th 2023 at 9:00 PM ET
  • Where: McMahon Stadium in Calgary, Alberta
  • Opening Spread: Blue Bombers -7 / Current Spread: Blue Bombers -6.5
  • Opening Total: 47.5 Points / Current Total: 47.5 Points

The Calgary Stampeders (3-6 / 3-6 ATS) host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-2 / 5-4 ATS). Winnipeg are scoring 30.9 PPG (2nd) and allowing 21.1 PPG (3rd). The Bombers have the best offense in the league. Winnipeg’s offense is averaging 300.7 PYPG (1st), 119.6 RYPG (2nd) and 2.1 turnovers per game (3rd).

Calgary ranks sixth in points scored (22.1 PPG) and points allowed (26.2 PPG). QB Jake Maier struggled last week, as he went 17/31 for 131 yards. Calgary are averaging 246.8 PYPG (7th). The Stampeders are allowing 241.4 PYPG (5th) and 105.9 RYPG (7th), but they rank second in sacks made (28).

Winnipeg won the first H2H game this season in Week 5 (24-11). Winnipeg are 3-1 ATS against Calgary dating back to last season and the over/under is 2-2. Winnipeg are 2-2 ATS on the road, while the Stamps are 1-3 ATS at home and 1-3 as an underdog this season. Will the Bombers be able to cover ATS?

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Alouettes vs. Redblacks Prediction for Week 11

  • When: Saturday, August 19th 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
  • Where: TD Place in Ottawa, Ontario
  • Opening Spread: Alouettes -2 / Current Spread: Alouettes -2.5
  • Opening Total: 46.5 Points / Current Total: 47 Points

The Montreal Alouettes (5-3 / 5-3 ATS) are on a three-game win streak. The Ottawa Redblacks (3-6 / 3-6 ATS) have lost three consecutive games. These two teams are heading in opposite directions.

QB Cody Fajardo missed last week, but he’s expected to play this weekend. The Alouettes are getting it done defensively (19.4 PPG Allowed – 2nd) and they’re ranked fourth in scoring (24.9 PPG). Ottawa are scoring 23.0 PPG (5th) and have the best rushing attack (122.7 RYPG), but they rank last in the league in passing yards (214.2 PYPG). The Als allow 96.9 RYPG (4th) and will look to limit Ottawa’s run game.

Montreal defeated Ottawa in Week 1 (19-12), but last season the Redblacks went 2-2 (3-1 ATS) against the Alouettes. Ottawa are 2-2 ATS at home this season, while the Als are 4-0 as a favorite. Sign-up to Sports Hub to access all of my CFL Week 11 picks and other expert sports picks.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

Lions vs. Roughriders Prediction for Week 11

  • When: Sunday, August 20th 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
  • Where: Mosaic Stadium in Regina, Saskatchewan
  • Opening Spread: Lions -7.5 / Current Spread: Lions -9.5
  • Opening Total: 45 Points / Current Total: 45 Points

The BC Lions (7-2 / 6-2-1 ATS) looked great last week. QB Vernon Adams Jr. returned from injury and he went 23/32 for 322 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. The Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-5 / 4-4-1 ATS) were blown out last week and QB Mason Fine was injured. His status for Sunday is currently uncertain.

BC have the best defense, as they rank first in points allowed (17.0 PPG) and yards allowed (284.0 YPG). The offense is averaging 25.9 PPG (3rd), 289.6 PYPG (2nd) and 82.0 RYPG (8th). The Roughriders will look to limit Adams Jr. through the air, as they’re only allowing 22.1 PYPG (1st).

Saskatchewan are scoring 19.6 PPG (8th) and allowing 27.0 PPG (7th). They haven’t had success on the ground (87.4 RYPG – 7th), but the offense ranks third in passing yards (278.3 PYPG). Dating back to last season, the Lions are 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS) against the Riders and the over/under is 0-3-1.

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

CFL Week 11 Picks – Touchdown Scorers

I hit on Kenny Lawler to score a TD last week. He had a quiet game, catching just two of seven targets, but one of the catches was a 32-yard TD completion. This week, I’m betting on Tre Ford to score a TD against the Ti-Cats. Hamilton are allowing 121.6 RYPG (8th). In his first start last week, Ford rushed the football five times for 50 yards and 1 TD. I expect a similar stat line tonight.

Best Bet: Tre Ford to Score a Touchdown (+120)

CFL Week 11 Picks – Player Props

I also hit on my player props last week, as Jamal Morrow rushed for over 50.5 yards. The Riders lost to the Als in a blowout, but Morrow still had 18 carries for 81 yards. This week, I’m betting on WR Justin Hardy to have over 55.5 receiving yards. Hardy has had 56+ receiving yards in five of his last six games and he should exceed that again against the Als passing defense (240.8 PYPG Allowed – 4th).

Best Bet: Justin Hardy Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)