CFL Week 10 Picks

Updated:

We have CFL Week 10 picks for all four games on the schedule. After the Argonauts loss last week, there are no undefeated teams left. Toronto lead the East and Winnipeg lead the West.

Edmonton will look to snap a 21-game home losing streak tonight. Hamilton are on a bye week.

CFL Week 9 Results and Betting Recap

Here are the CFL Week 9 score and betting results:

  • Lions 14 vs. Blue Bombers 50 – Blue Bombers (-5.5) Covered ATS and Over 44.5
  • Argonauts 7 vs. Stampeders 20 – Stampeders (+9) Covered ATS and Under 51
  • Alouettes 27 vs. Tiger-Cats 14 – Alouettes (-3) Covered ATS and Under 45.5
  • Redblacks 26 vs. Roughriders 28 – Roughriders (+2.5) Covered ATS and Over 44.5

We had two underdogs win straight-up in Week 9. Favorites went 2-2 (2-2 ATS) and are 20-14 (18-15-1 ATS) this season. The over/under record was 2-2 and is now 14-21 on the season. I had another 3-1 week (+$190) and I’m now 22-11 (66.7%) for +$1050 in profits through ten weeks.

Let’s see if we can go undefeated with my CFL Week 10 picks.

Expert CFL Week 10 Picks

Sign-up for a free Sports Hub account to access all of my CFL Week 10 picks. Search for “SWJ Sports” to view all of my weekly plays. You’ll also be able to access other Canadian Football League picks from our other experts. Last week, James Acker and Sean Murphy both went 1-0 in the CFL.

There are some great games on the CFL Week 10 schedule. Let’s start analyzing the football games.

Blue Bombers vs. Elks Prediction for Week 10
  • When: Thursday, August 10th 2023 at 9:00 PM ET
  • Where: Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, Alberta
  • Opening Spread: Blue Bombers -11 / Current Spread: Blue Bombers -12.5
  • Opening Total: 42.5 Points / Current Total: 45 Points

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-2 / 5-3 ATS) exploded for 50 points last week. The Edmonton Elks (0-8 / 2-6 ATS) remain winless. Tre Ford will get his first start of the season at QB for the Elks tonight.

Edmonton are coming off a bye week and teams coming off a bye are 9-1 (8-2 ATS) this season. The Elks are only scoring 13.1 PPG (9th) and they allow 26.5 PPG (8th). The Blue Bombers rank second in scoring (30.0 PPG) and points allowed (20.1 PPG). Winnipeg have the best passing attack (299.1 PYPG), but the Bombers should establish the run (114.0 RYPG – 3rd), as the Elks allow 141.6 RYPG (9th).

Winnipeg defeated Edmonton at home in Week 7 (28-14), but failed to cover ATS. Since 2021, Winnipeg are 6-0 (4-2 ATS) against the Elks and they’ve won five of those games by 14+ points. These big point spreads can be tough to cover consistently, but the Bombers are one of the top CFL Week 10 picks.

Best Bet: Blue Bombers -12.5 (-110)

Roughriders vs. Alouettes Prediction for Week 10
  • When: Friday, August 11th 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium
  • Opening Spread: Alouettes -5 / Current Spread: Alouettes -5
  • Opening Total: 44.5 Points / Current Spread: 44.5 Points

The Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-4 / 4-3-1 ATS) pulled off an upset last week. Mason Fine went 23/37 for 296 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs in the win. The Montreal Alouettes (4-3 / 4-3 ATS) are on a two-game winning streak and they’re 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season. The Riders are 3-1 ATS in road games.

The Roughriders rank seventh in points scored (20.5 PPG) and points allowed (25.3 PPG). The defense is allowing 304.8 YPG (2nd) and they rank first against the pass (231.3 PYPG). The Als are getting it done on defense, as they’re only allowing 20.4 PPG (3rd) and they have a +5 turnover margin (2nd).

Montreal are scoring 22.6 PPG (5th) and averaging 268.1 PYPG (4th). This will be the first H2H game this season. Last season, these teams met twice (1-1 / 1-1 ATS) with both games going over the total.

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Stampeders vs. Lions Prediction for Week 10
  • When: Saturday, August 12th 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
  • Where: BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia
  • Opening Spread: Lions -6.5 / Current Spread: Lions -6.5
  • Opening Total: 45.5 Points / Current Total: 45.5 Points

The Calgary Stampeders (3-5 / 3-5 ATS) are flying high after defeating Toronto. QB Jake Maier is second in the CFL in passing yards (2,077) and RB Diedrick Mills is second in rushing yards (483). Calgary are averaging 23.8 PPG (4th), 95.9 RYPG (4th) and 260.6 PYPG (6th) on offense this season.

The Stampeders defense looked great last week, but they’re allowing 24.9 PPG (6th). The BC Lions (6-2 / 5-2-1 ATS) are scoring 24.5 PPG (3rd) and allowing 18.0 PPG (1st). After last week’s blowout loss, the Lions received some good news, as QB Vernon Adams Jr. is expected to start on Saturday at home.

BC average 285.8 PYPG (3rd) on offense, but the Stamps only allow 231.6 PYPG (2nd). These teams met in Week 1 and the Lions won (25-15). Dating back to last season, the Lions are 4-1 (4-1 ATS) against the Stampeders. The last three H2H games have gone under the game total.

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Redblacks vs. Argonauts Prediction for Week 10
  • When: Sunday, August 13th 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
  • Where: BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario
  • Opening Spread: Argonauts -10.5 / Current Spread: Argonauts -7.5
  • Opening Total: 48.5 Points / Current Total: 44.5 Points

The Ottawa Redblacks (3-5 / 3-5 ATS) have lost two consecutive games. Offense has been a problem, as Ottawa are scoring 22.0 PPG (6th), but the defense is solid (23.0 PPG – 5th). The Toronto Argonauts (6-1 / 6-1 ATS) finally lost last week. QB Chad Kelly is banged up and he might not start on Sunday.

Toronto lead the CFL in scoring (32.0 PPG) and turnover margin (+14). The Argos allow 20.6 PPG (4th), 75.0 RYPG (2nd) and 297.0 PYPG (8th). Ottawa have the league’s worst passing offense (204.5 PYPG) and QB Dustin Crum needs to test the Argonauts passing defense if the Redblacks want to win.

Last season, the Argos went 2-1 (2-1 ATS) against Ottawa and the O/U record was 1-2. Toronto are 3-0 ATS at home, while Ottawa are 1-3 ATS on the road. With Kelly’s status up in the air, the Argos will want to establish the run (114.1 RYPG – 2nd), but the Redblacks are only allowing 61.0 RYPG (1st).

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CFL Week 10 Picks – Touchdown Scorers

I’m betting on WR Kenny Lawler to score a touchdown against the Elks tonight. Lawler missed the first six games of the Canadian Football League season because of an immigration issue. In two games with the Blue Bombers, Lawler already has 14 receptions (17 targets) for 293 receiving yards and 1 TD.

Lawler didn’t score in Week 7 against the Elks, but he scored last week against BC. The Elks have given up ten passing TDs (T5) and the Bombers lead the CFL in passing TDs (17).

Best Bet: Kenny Lawler to Score a TD (-145)

CFL Week 10 Picks – Player Props

My best CFL Week 10 player props pick is on RB Jamal Morrow to rush for over 50.5 yards. Morrow had 51+ rushing yards in three of the first four Roughriders games. He hasn’t gone over that mark in the last four games, but the Riders last three games have been against the top three run defenses.

Montreal are allowing 94.0 RYPG (6th) and 5.6 yards per carry (7th). This should be a close game and as long as Morrow gets 10+ touches, he should be able to cash this player props bet.