2024 PGA The Sentry Predictions & Preview

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The 2024 PGA Tour gets underway this week and that all starts with The Sentry predictions! The calendar-based format returns this year which means The Sentry is opening the 2024 PGA Tour season. 

2022/23 FedEx Cup champion Viktor Hovland and No.1 in the Official World Golf Rankings Scottie Scheffler are the current market leaders heading into the curtain-raiser. 700 FedEx Cup points are up for grabs in the newly labeled “Signature Event”. 

I’m excited as ever to kick off the 2024 PGA Tour season with my Sentry predictions. As expected, guys such as Hovland, Scheffler and Collin Morikawa are expected to perform well. But, could we see a longshot winner this time around? Find out what I think in my Sentry predictions and preview below!

2022/23 PGA Tour Season Results 

Before we get into my Sentry predictions, let’s refresh our minds as to how the 2022/23 PGA Tour season concluded. Lucas Glover got the FedEx Cup playoffs off to a flyer as he won the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

However, it was Hovland who delivered in the final two playoff events, winning both the BMW and Tour Championship to become the FedEx Cup champion. Can the Norwegian retain his crown in 2024? 

The FedEx Cup Fall Series finished up 2023 and young prospects such as Sahith Theegala and Ludivg Aberg were able to win on the PGA Tour for the first time. I was able to find a host of winners throughout the 2022/23 PGA Tour season. Let’s hope that I can continue to select winners again in 2024. Check out my handicapper page, Ashlee Kiddell, to view all of my 2024 The Sentry predictions!

2024 PGA The Sentry Preview

When: Thursday, January 4th – Sunday, January 7th, 2024

Where: Kapalua Resort, Maui, Hawaii

TV: Golf Channel / NBC / ESPN+ / Peacock

Field: 59 Golfers (no cut)

Purse: $20,000,000 (Winner gets $3,600,000)

Previously known as “Designated Events”, The Sentry, like many others on the 2024 PGA Tour calendar, is now known as a “Signature Event”. The fields are smaller, with the top 50 in last season’s FedEx Cup rankings being invited to play in these events. Essentially, these “Signature Events” see the best of the best compete against one another. 

Previous tournament winners from last year (39 in total) have all been invited to the opening competition of 2024. They are joined by a further 24 golfers from last season’s top 50 in the FedEx Cup. The likes of reigning champion Jon Rahm (who joined LIV Golf) and Rory McIlroy are not featuring in The Sentry this year. 

The Sentry has opened the New Year on the PGA Tour now for some time and the best players will meet once again in 2024 to open what is set to be another exhilarating season of golf.

Plantation Course Information

Par: 73  / Yards: 7,596

Greens: Bermudagrass

Par 3s: 3 / Par 4s: 11  / Par 5s: 4

Weather can play a role in how the tournament plays out in Kapalua this week. If there is wind, it is bound to impact the scoring. Golfers will be able to enjoy large greens, meaning SG: Tee-to-Green could be an important statistic to consider when making Sentry predictions. 

Putting will also be key, and those who have been in top form with the flat stick have seen success on the Plantation Course. Players who have had past success in Hawaii’s fellow event, the Sony Open, have also performed well in The Sentry. 

Rahm won the 2023 edition of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, shooting 27-under to defeat Morikawa by two strokes. The Spaniard finished as the runner-up in the 2022 tournament, losing to Cameron Smith. We saw back-to-back playoff victories in 2020 and 2021 as Justin Thomas and Harris English won the competition respectively. 

Expert PGA The Sentry Predictions for 2024

Starting off with the market leaders, Scheffler (+500), Hovland (+850) and Morikawa (+950) are the three frontrunners to win the tournament. Scheffler returned to action at the end of 2023 and won the Tiger Woods-hosted Hero World Challenge. Leading SG: Tee-to-Green for the 2022/23 campaign, Scheffler is in with a great chance of performing well in the opener here. He will be looking to improve upon his T7 finish in last year’s Sentry tournament. 

Both Hovland and Morikawa ranked inside the top five as well in terms of SG:Tee-to-Green last season so that will bode well for them here too. It’s the putting that may slightly hinder all three, however. They all rank outside the top 50 in terms of SG: Putting, but Hovland ranks highest in 54th. He’s followed by Morikawa in 114th, then Scheffler in 162nd. Nevertheless, Scheffler demonstrated excellent skill with the flat stick at the Hero World Challenge recently as he beat Sepp Straka by three strokes. 

Hovland has competed in a few tournaments over the winter. He finished T2 at the DP World Tour Championship back in November, but only finished tenth at the Hero World Challenge. As for Morikawa, he saw success during the FedEx Cup Fall Series, winning the ZOZO Championship in Japan. Morikawa also finished second in last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions so has performed well on the Plantation Course in the past. 

Top Contenders to Win the 2024 PGA The Sentry

Ludvig Aberg (+1350) will be a bettors favorite throughout the 2024 season as the young contender continues to shine. The Swede tasted victory on the PGA Tour for the first time in November as he won the RSM Classic. However, it is the first time he will be competing in Kapalua. Maiden appearances on the Plantation Course haven’t resulted in much success in the past. 

Another interesting contender for Sentry predictions comes in the form of Xander Schauffele (+1350). He won the tournament back in 2019 and his rank of fifth in SG: Putting means he is showing some good value. The 30-year-old disappointed in the ZOZO Championship at the end of 2023, finishing T38. However, he had a superb end to the FedEx Cup playoffs so will be hoping to start the new season well here. 

Priced at +2300, Tom Kim could present some excellent value for 2024 Sentry predictions. Kim recorded a T5 finish in the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and has performed well throughout the winter so far. The South Korean finished T6 in the Open de France, and was able to win the Shriners Children’s Open back in October. 

Longshots to Win the 2024 PGA The Sentry

It has been rare to see longshot winners in past editions of the Sentry. However, Harris English was able to win the 2021 tournament. He had a starting price of +4100 and would go on to be the victor via a playoff. One longshot contender who is in good form entering The Sentry is Straka (+6000). 

The Austrian golfer secured a second-placed finish in the Hero World Challenge around a month ago, shooting 8-under in the final round. Straka finished T21 in last year’s Sentry and will be looking to try and crack the top ten this time around. He ranked just 76th and 60th in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting respectively for the 2022/23 season, though, so that could explain his longshot odds for the tournament. 

Although he underwhelmed in the BMW Championship back in August, Cameron Davis (+5500) has been in strong form since. He hasn’t finished lower than T12 over his last four out of five appearances. He also finished third in the Fortinet Championship in September. 

2024 PGA The Sentry Predictions – Outright Winner

2024 The Sentry predictions have been locked in! Having gone through all of the analysis, I am feeling confident about finding a winner here to start the new season in style. 

Head on over to my handicapper page, Ashlee Kiddell, in order to find out which three picks I have gone for in the outright winner market. 

I have also made two selections for a top five finish which you can see below! 

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

2024 PGA The Sentry Predictions – Top 5 Finish

My Sentry predictions will end by making two picks for the top 5 finish market. I have gone for Kim (+500) and Schauffele (+250) to finish inside the top 5. 

We can’t ignore the form of Kim heading into the tournament and he has had success in Kapalua before with his T5 finish last year. At +500 to finish inside the top 5 again this year, I like the value. 

Despite being priced shorter, I still like the odds for Schauffle in this market. He is one of the best golfers in the world and has won this tournament before. His strong putting skills should help him here. 

Best Bet: Tom Kim (+500) & Xander Schauffele (+250)

2024 PGA The Sentry Odds

Here are the odds for the top 30 golfers at the 2024 The Sentry (subject to change):

  • Scottie Scheffler (+500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+850)
  • Collin Morikawa (+950)
  • Max Homa (+1150)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1150)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1350)
  • Ludvig Aberg (+1350)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2000)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300)
  • Tom Kim (+2300)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+3000)
  • Tommy Fleetwood (+3000)
  • Sam Burns (+3000)
  • Rickie Fowler (+3500)
  • Sungjae Im (+3500)
  • Russell Henley (+4000)
  • Jason Day (+4500)
  • Cameron Young (+4500)
  • Brian Harman (+5000)
  • Cameron Davis (+5500)
  • Sepp Straka (+6000)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+6000)
  • Wyndham Clark (+6500)
  • Sahith Theegala (+6500)
  • Eric Cole (+6500)
  • Keegan Bradley (+7000)
  • Byeong-Hun An (+7000)
  • Corey Conners (+7500)
  • Justin Rose (+8000)