2023 NFL Thanksgiving Preview & Predictions

Updated:

2023 NFL Thanksgiving games are right around the corner! This Thursday, we have a total of three games on the schedule for us all to enjoy. Don’t you just love the holidays? 

Week 12 signals a turning point in the NFL. The playoff picture gets a lot clearer and those that are serious about competing will be looking for a strong run down the stretch. And that all starts this Thursday with the Thanksgiving games. 

Every year, the league serves up a real treat when it comes to NFL Thanksgiving games. 2023 is no different, with three divisional games on display. We start with Packers-Lions, then Commanders-Cowboys, followed by a primetime showing of 49ers-Seahawks. 

Of course, Sports Hub is here to guide you throughout the holiday season. We know there’s a lot going on during this time of year. But, we will be putting all our efforts into providing you with the best research, information and picks to aid you throughout. So, let’s kick things off with our NFL Thanksgiving preview and predictions! 

2022 NFL Thanksgiving Games 

Let’s start our NFL Thanksgiving preview by taking a look at last year’s games. In 2022, the NFL celebrated John Madden, branding the Thanksgiving games as the ‘John Madden Thanksgiving Celebration’, to honor the late icon. 

It’s tradition that both the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys play on Thanksgiving. They played in 2022 and, of course, are on the schedule again this year. Here are the results from the 2022 games: 

  • Buffalo Bills 28-25 Detroit Lions 
  • New York Giants 20-28 Dallas Cowboys
  • New England Patriots 26-33 Minnesota Vikings 

The Lions failed to win in what was their 83rd Thanksgiving game in their history. They have now lost their last six successive games on Turkey Day, last winning in 2016 against the Minnesota Vikings. 

Dallas have also struggled on Thanksgiving in recent years, winning just one of their last four. That came last year against the Giants in what was their first victory since 2018 when they beat Washington 31-23. 

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Preview & Predictions

Now that we have had a quick recap of last year’s games, we’re ready to get into the 2023 schedule now. The most common matchup for NFL Thanksgiving games is back on the cards this year as the Green Bay Packers head to Detroit to face the Lions in an NFC North clash. This will be the 21st Thanksgiving meeting between the division rivals. 

An NFC East rivalry game then hits our screens between the Washington Commanders and the Cowboys. As always, the Lions and the Cowboys are the home teams for Thanksgiving games. Finally, the top-two teams in the NFC West go head-to-head as the Niners head to Seattle. 

Below, I have summarized the key information that you need to watch the 2023 NFL Thanksgiving games: 

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions 

When: 12:30 p.m. ET 

Where: Ford Field, Detroit 

TV: FOX

Latest Lines: Lions -7 ½, O/U 46

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys 

When: 4:30 p.m. ET 

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington 

TV: CBS 

Latest Lines: Cowboys -11, O/U 48

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks 

When: 8:20 p.m. ET 

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle

TV: NBC/Peacock 

Latest Lines: 49ers -7, O/U 43

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Games – Packers @ Lions Prediction

Spread: Lions (-7.5) -110 – Total: o46 -115, u46 -105 – Money line: Packers (+235), Lions (-350)

The Packers have a .417 win rate for NFL Thanksgiving games, whilst the Lions have performed slightly better at .458. The last time the two teams met on Thanksgiving was in 2013, with the Lions running out 40-10 winners. Detroit will feel optimistic about ending their Thanksgiving hoodoo this time around. 

It has not been the best of seasons so far for Green Bay who are currently 4-6 and trail both the Lions and the Vikings in the NFC North. However, they have won two of their last three games and secured a 23-20 victory at home to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, with Jordan Love throwing a go-ahead touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter. 

The Packers have been bad on the road this season and have a record of 1-4. Their only win came against the Bears (38-20) during Week One. They have kept it close, though, and their biggest away deficit this year has been by just four points. 

The Packers are 5-5 ATS this season, which worsens to 2-3 for road games. As the underdog, they are 4-4. In terms of the Over/Under, they are 4-6 on the year. 

Dan Campbell’s Lions are having an extremely strong season and lead the NFC North with a record of 8-2. They almost suffered a poor defeat at home to the Chicago Bears on Sunday but rescued a late 31-26 victory, fighting back from 12 points down in the fourth quarter. 

The Lions have suffered just one defeat out of five home games so far. That was against the Seahawks (37-21) after overtime during Week Two. 

Detroit are 7-3 ATS this season but are just 3-2 ATS as the home team. After a win, they are 4-3. When looking at the Over/Under, they are 6-4. 

I expect the Lions to win this game, especially at home. However, the Packers should keep this one tight and they will be full of confidence after their win over the Chargers. The Lions offense wasn’t firing against the Bears and it could struggle again heading into the short week. 

Best Bet: Green Bay (+7.5) -110

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Games – Commanders @ Cowboys Prediction

Spread: Cowboys (-11) -110 – Total: o/u 48 -110 – Money line: Commanders (+425), Cowboys (-556)

With a win rate of .591 for Thanksgiving games, the Cowboys typically enjoy the festive period. The Commanders have a win rate of just .333 and are huge underdogs as they head to AT&T Stadium on Thursday. 

It has been a strange year for Washington so far who are currently 4-7. However, things have been tough of late and they have just one win over their past five games. That includes a 31-19 loss to the woeful New York Giants on Sunday, with quarterback Sam Howell throwing three picks. No wonder they’re priced at +425 on the money line. They have been inconsistent away from home and have a record of 3-3 in road games. 

Washington are 5-5-1 ATS but have performed well as underdogs in 2023, going 5-1-1 ATS. They are also 5-1 as the away team. They have covered exceptionally well as the away underdog, going 5-0 ATS. 

The spread looks difficult to call. The Commanders have been good at keeping their losses close. However, Dallas blow teams away on their own turf and are 4-0 ATS. They have a combined score of 160-50 at home in 2023. Overall, they have the joint-second best ATS record in the NFL at 7-3. They covered on the road to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday too, recording a 33-10 victory. 

All three of the Cowboys’ defeats have come on their travels this season and they haven’t lost a regular season game at AT&T Stadium since Week One of last year. 

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2023 NFL Thanksgiving Games – 49ers @ Seahawks Prediction

Spread: 49ers (-7) -110 – Total: o/u 43 -110 – Money line: Seahawks (+230), 49ers (-305)

The dessert of the 2023 NFL Thanksgiving games see the 49ers head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks at Lumen Field. They have both played just eight Thanksgiving games between them and also share a win rate of .500. 

After suffering a three-game losing streak during October, San Francisco have bounced back in November and have won their last two. They easily defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars during Week 10, whilst they moved to 7-3 on Sunday with a comfortable 27-14 triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The return of Trent Williams to the offensive line has been crucial. 

Two of their three defeats have come away from Levi’s Stadium – against the Browns (19-17) and the Vikings (22-17).

The Niners are 5-5 ATS this season and have struggled to cover on the road, going 2-3 ATS. However, they have covered the past two weeks, even as 11.5 favorites on Sunday against the Bucs. 

Inconsistency has been a key theme for Seattle in 2023. They haven’t won more than three games in a row this season and have lost two of their last three games. The Seahawks failed to get revenge over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, losing 17-16 to go 0-2 in their divisional matchup on the year. A missed field goal by Jason Myers in the last seconds of the game cost Seattle the win. 

Their Week One defeat against the Rams is the only one that they have suffered at Lumen Field in 2023 and they have won their last four consecutive home games. The last two have been close, however, as they beat the Browns (24-20) and the Commanders (29-26). 

The Hawks are 5-4-1 ATS in 2023 and have covered twice out of three games after a defeat. As the home team, they are 2-2-1 ATS this season. For totals, they are 4-6 when looking at the Over/Under. The over has landed 60% of the time in their games at Lumen Field this season, though. 

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