2023 NFC West Win Totals Projections

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NFC West win totals are here! We are less than one week away from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season and I have been taking a look at win totals for each division over the summer. 

Having covered the entire AFC, I am now at my final win totals analysis for the NFC. I have examined win totals for all NFC divisions, with NFL South win totals last week. My win totals series will conclude here with my 2023 NFC West win totals projections.

The 49ers are expected to lead NFL West win totals
The 49ers are expected to lead NFL West win totals

Let’s Explore NFC West Win Totals 

Two of the four teams in the NFC West made the playoffs last season. The San Francisco 49ers dominated the division, winning all six matchups as they won the NFC West title. The 49ers are set to be one of the strongest teams in the entire conference once more. 

The Seattle Seahawks improved upon the 2021 season with Geno Smith under center and are set for another good year in 2023. The offense looks strong but will their defense let them down?

SF is favored to win the NFC West
SF is favored to win the NFC West

Poor campaigns for both the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals means there isn’t much optimism for them in 2023. The Rams will need their star players to stay fit, unlike in 2022, whilst the Cardinals are rebuilding after a complete disaster last season. 

An Examination Of NFC West Win Totals 

I will be giving my over/under picks for each team’s win totals across the NFC West. Make sure you check them out below. There are a number of questions surrounding each team ahead of the new football season. The NFC West is typically a strong division and three out of the last five division winners have gone on to reach the Super Bowl. 

How will Brock Purdy perform in his first full season as the starting quarterback in San Francisco? Will the 49ers be able to go one step further in 2023 and reach the Super Bowl?

Can the Rams keep their marquee players fit in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald? Will they be able to bounce back after a poor 2022? 

Will Geno Smith be able to show consistency and deliver once again for the Seahawks? They wrote him off once before but he didn’t write back. Is he the right signal caller in Seattle?

Will the Cardinals be able to improve upon their 4-13 record in 2022? Kyler Murray will begin the season on the PUP list but how much will he play in 2023? Below I will try and answer the questions that are influencing NFC West win totals. 

Arizona Cardinals – NFC West Win Totals

  • NFC West Win Totals: 4.5
  • 2022 Record: 4-13

It was the end of Kliff Kingsbury last year as the Cards went 4-13. They failed to emulate their success from the season prior where they finished 11-6. 

The Cards suffered with injuries to key players throughout the year. Star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins played just nine games, missing the first six weeks due to suspension. Quarterback Kyler Murray only managed to start 11 games after tearing his ACL. 

However, 2023 signals a new era in the desert. General manager Steve Keim stepped down during the offseason, whilst Kingsbury was fired. New head coach Jonathan Gannon will now work with new general manager Monti Ossenfort to rebuild the Cardinals.

Jonathan Gannon could have a say in NFC West win totals
Jonathan Gannon could have a say in NFC West win totals

Arizona’s weak defense impacts NFC West win totals

The Cards are in the tank. Nothing demonstrated that more with their recent trade of safety Isaiah Simmons. The eighth overall selection in the 2020 NFL draft, the Cards recently traded Simmons to the New York Giants for a seventh-round pick. 

The defense needs to improve if they are to have a better 2023. They gave up the second most points on average last year – 26.4 per game. The Cardinals also gave up the ninth most passing yards in 2022. 

41st overall selection in the 2023 draft, BJ Ojulari, looks to be a solid addition on the edge. He will attempt to fill some of the void left by J.J. Watt, whilst third-round pick Garrett Williams and sixth-round selection Kei’Trel Clark will add corner depth after losing Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency. 

Overall, the defense still looks underwhelming ahead of the new season and the Cardinals are not expected to hit a healthy number in terms of NFC West win totals. 

The Cards are in the tank 

The franchise looks set to go all in on backing Murray. Kyler signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension to stay with the Cardinals, with $160 million being guaranteed in July of last year. 

The aim over the offseason appeared to find a head coach who wanted to work with Murray and Gannon seems to be that guy. With the sixth overall pick in the 2023 draft, the Cardinals selected tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and Murray himself was ecstatic about the pick.

Arizona is building for the future and the selection of Johnson indicates they are set on providing Murray with the best protection possible. With K1 out for the start of the season, officially confirmed with him starting on the PUP list, the Cards are certainly looking to the future. 

They did so too by moving back in the 2023 draft. By trading the 3rd overall pick, they managed to accumulate extra draft capital, including an extra first for 2024. 

Arizona Cardinals Current NFC West Win Totals: 4.5

It may not be a pretty first season for the new head coach/general manager tandem of Gannon and Ossenfort. Things may get ugly at times out in the desert but the goal will be to look to the future, especially with Murray starting on the PUP list. The Cards are fully in the tank for 2023. 

Best Bet: Under 4.5 wins 

Los Angeles Rams – NFC West Win Totals

  • NFC West Win Totals: 6.5
  • 2022 Record: 5-12

The Rams were defending Super Bowl champions last season but failed to deliver after going 5-12, meaning head coach Sean McVay had his first losing season. Notable injuries to key players such as quarterback Matthew Stafford, Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp and nine-time Pro Bowler Aaron Donald derailed their season. 

The Rams went all out for Super Bowl LVI. They didn’t have a single first-round pick in the 2021 draft, they failed to have one selection inside the top 100 in the 2022 draft and had zero first-round picks earlier this year. The Rams haven’t had a first-round pick since 2016 and they are feeling the drawbacks of it now. 

With injury concerns already set to impact Kupp before the season has already begun, it may be another difficult season for the Rams. 

A worrying offensive outlook for 2023

The Rams managed the least total yards on offense last season and ranked sixth in terms of least points in the NFL. Stafford and Kupp started just nine games in 2022 and that had a huge say in their offensive issues. 

Ahead of the new season, the Rams don’t appear to have many pass-catching options outside of Kupp. The likes of Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson and Ben Skowronek are the fellow receivers on the roster and neither of them managed to get over 500 receiving yards last year.

Cam Akers has sorted out his issues in LA, however, despite his career in California looking over at the start of last season. He showed his quality from Week 13, rushing for a total of 512 yards and six touchdowns over the final six games. He is set to be the RB1 in 2023 and could have a big year. 

Akers’ performances this season could have a big say on NFC West win totals. With a lack of options in the receiving corps, the Rams may look to run the ball a lot in 2023. 

Key defensive offseason losses will have a say in NFC West win totals

There is no Jalen Ramsey on the roster for the first time since 2019 after he was traded to the Miami Dolphins. The defense struggled last season and gave up the 11th most points in the league last year. The secondary for 2023 also looks weak with just one starter on this year’s roster having a PFF grade above 70 last year. 

Another offseason loss comes in the form of defensive end Leonard Floyd. Floyd joined the Buffalo Bills in June and he will be another big loss to the Rams defense. The 30-year-old has been in LA since 2020 and has recorded 10.5, 9.5 and 9 sacks across his last three seasons. 

The hope is that 77th overall selection in the 2023 draft, Byron Young, can help fill some of the void left by Floyd. Young recorded a total of nine sacks in his final college year at Tennessee. Overall, the defense looks weak and could negatively impact NFC West win totals for the Rams. 

Los Angeles Rams Current NFC West Win Totals: 6.5

After a poor 2022, the roster doesn’t give much hope for an improved 2023. There are too many holes and there’s not enough quality across the board. With Kupp already dealing with injury concerns before the start of the season, it could be a long campaign for the Rams. 

Best Bet: Under 6.5 wins

San Francisco 49ers – NFC West Win Totals

  • NFC West Win Totals: 11.5
  • 2022 Record: 13-4

The 49ers will be looking to win the NFC West for a second straight season after doing so with a 13-4 record in 2022. Despite going 3-4 to start the season, San Francisco would go on to win all ten of their final regular season games to be crowned NFC West winners. 

They looked strong in the playoffs too, dispatching the Seattle Seahawks and the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds respectively. However, they couldn’t get past the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game to reach the Super Bowl.

The 49ers look set to be one of the best teams across the entire NFC once more this season. They have star quality embedded throughout the roster and are one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. 

Mr. Relevant is QB1 – Brock Purdy will have a say in NFC West win totals

Injuries plagued the 49ers roster last season and they even had to roll with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy from Week 13 after back-up Jimmy Garoppolo got injured. Starter Trey Lance suffered a season-ending injury during Week 2. Purdy, who was selected last in the 2022 draft, proved that he has what it takes at the NFL level. 

Purdy won all five regular season games before winning his first two playoff matchups. If it wasn’t for Purdy suffering an injury in the NFC Championship game, he may have been able to lead them to the Super Bowl. 

The jury’s in for Purdy and it’s out for Lance in 2023. Despite being drafted with the third overall pick in the 2021 draft and the 49ers giving up a ton of draft capital to get him, Lance has been traded to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. Lance was originally named as the third-string behind Purdy and even Sam Darnold after training camp. Kyle Shanahan believes Purdy can be the signal caller for 2023 and his performances will affect NFC West win totals. 

How will the defense perform in 2023? 

The 49ers truly have an elite roster across the board. With Christian McCaffrey at running back, Deebo Samuel at receiver, George Kittle at tight end, the offense has stars throughout. That’s even forgetting to mention a solid o-line led by ten-time Pro Bowler Trent Williams.

Bosa's contract will impact NFC West win totals
Bosa’s contract will impact NFC West win totals

The defense is also full of stars. The likes of Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward all populate the defense, whilst Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead prove they have incredible strength in depth. New defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will be expected to perform well. 

McCaffrey himself even stated that walking into the 49ers’ locker room is like being at the Pro Bowl. It’s the sheer quality of the roster all round that makes the franchise so strong. Coupled with savvy coaching, led by Shanahan, the 49ers will likely dominate the NFC West once more in 2023. 

San Francisco 49ers Current NFC West Win Totals: 11.5

The only potential concern for San Francisco is injury issues. If they can keep their star players fit, they have one of the best teams in the NFL. It will also depend on how Purdy can perform. He’s had such a small sample size so far but clearly has the backing from Shanahan. The 49ers are expected to smash their NFC West win totals. 

Best Bet: Over 11.5 wins 

Seattle Seahawks – NFC West Win Totals

  • NFC West Win Totals: 8.5
  • 2022 Record: 9-8

Maybe the Seahawks were right to trade Russell Wilson? Wilson was quite frankly awful in Denver last year and yet Geno Smith impressed under center. 

Seattle went 9-8 in 2022, bettering their 2021 season of 7-10. There was certainly improvement and the offense has some talented prospects. The likes of DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are set to influence NFC West win totals this season. 

The main questions surround the defense, particularly in the run game which leaked too many yards last season. The Seahawks have made the playoffs in ten out of the last 13 seasons. Will they do so again in 2023? 

Offensive prospects indicate Seattle could have a good 2023

Seattle has a host of talented offensive pieces at the skill positions. Running back Walker III rushed for over 1000 yards and nine touchdowns in his rookie season, despite starting just 11 games. They have now added Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 draft who rushed for 1359 yards and 14 touchdowns at UCLA in his final college year. 

The receiver room looks strong too. Of course they have Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but they also drafted Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall selection in the 2023 draft. He started just three games in his final college year due to injury but managed 1606 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2021 at Ohio State. Tight end Noah Fant is also a solid option as part of the receiving corps. 

As long as the offensive line holds up, the Seahawks look extremely dangerous in 2023. A solid offensive line could make the difference to NFC West win totals. 2022 ninth overall selection Charles Cross had a solid rookie year at left tackle and had a PFF grade of 63.1. Four out of Seattle’s starting five offensive lineman had PFF grades of 63+ in 2022.

Another poor defensive display could sway NFC West win totals

The Seahawks will have to work on their defense, though, since they gave up the eighth most points per game in the NFL in 2022, averaging 23.6. They also gave up the third most rushing yards, averaging 150.2 per game. Seattle allowed the seventh most yards in total too across the league. Defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt will need a much improved 2023. 

The addition of Devon Witherspoon at corner with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 draft should help out the secondary. 37th overall pick Derick Hall will hope to help out on the defensive line. The 22-year-old edge had a PFF pass rush grade of 82.6 in his final college year, also picking up eight sacks at Auburn. However, he will need some work in the run game since he had a PFF grade of just 61. 

Seattle Seahawks Current NFC West Win Totals: 8.5

The offense should certainly improve in 2023 and even if the defense is still poor, the hope is that the talent on the other side of the ball should get them to the playoffs. With just the 49ers set to mount a challenge for the NFC West title, the Seahawks should have a good season. 

Best Bet: Over 8.5 wins

NFC West Win Totals – FAQ

How do sportsbooks set NFC West win totals?

Sportsbooks will analyze a host of different factors before deciding on their win totals for each team. Free agency moves, the draft and strength of schedule are just a few different elements that bookmakers will consider before setting their lines. Wagering on win totals is a very well liked method of betting on the NFL.

Which superstars are set to have the biggest influence on NFC West win totals?

The division is filled with plenty of talented superstars that can determine NFC West win totals by the end of the season. Players such as Kyler Murray, Christian McCaffrey, DK Metcalf and Aaron Donald will have the biggest say.

Which team is most likely to win the NFC West in 2023?

The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to make it consecutive seasons of winning the NFC West. They are the current favorites to win the division and are priced at -200. They are the shortest price across the NFL to win their respective division. The Seattle Seahawks are second favorites at +180, whilst the LA Rams are priced at +850. The Arizona Cardinals are huge underdogs at +2300.

How can injuries influence NFC West win totals?

Injuries can make a huge impact on a team’s season. If a team can keep their key players fit for the bulk of the year, they have a good shot at success. However, like the Rams last season, losing their star players massively influenced their NFC West win totals.

Will the 49ers lead the NFC West in wins?

Although the 49ers are heavy favorites to lead NFC West win totals, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will. There are many different factors that can alter win totals throughout the season. Make sure to weigh up the odds and find value before making your picks.