2023 NFC North Win Totals Projections


What are your thoughts on NFC North win totals ahead of the new season? We’re in the thick of the NFL pre-season and we are less than three weeks away from the return of the NFL! Exciting times are ahead and we are getting you ready for what should be yet another wonderful season of football. Check out our NFC North win totals below.

We’re Here To Investigate NFC North Win Totals

We have been evaluating each team’s win totals ahead of the 2023 season. We have already covered the entire AFC and we also analyzed the NFC East last week. This time around, we take a look at NFC North win totals. 

Below you can find my over/under picks for each team’s win totals. We examine the win totals for the Chicago Bears, the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings in preparation for the new season. 

Can Justin Fields take even greater strides in 2023? Will the Lions go a step further and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016? How will the Packers fare in a new era without Aaron Rodgers? Can Kirk Cousins and the Vikings repeat their wonderful 2022? 

Let’s Get Into NFC North Win Totals

The Vikings won the NFC North in 2022 as they finished with a 13-4 record. They picked up four more wins than the Lions who finished second in the division. The addition of receiver Jordan Addison in the 2023 NFL draft could make an impact on NFC North win totals. 

The Lions narrowly missed out on the playoffs but they are hoping that the addition of elite running back Jahymr Gibbs could propel them further forward in 2022. But how much will they be hurt by the suspension to Jameson Williams? 

The Packers are rolling with Jordan Love under center for the new season which signals a new era for the franchise. How will Matt LaFleur cope without A Rod in Green Bay? 

The Bears appear to be in rebuild mode but Fields took some huge strides in 2022 and has proven to be an elite rusher. He needs to improve in the passing game but how much of an impact will the addition of D.J. Moore have? Let’s find some answers to those questions in our NFC North win totals below.

Chicago Bears – NFC North Win Totals

  • NFC North Win Totals: 7.5
  • 2022 Record: 3-14

The Bears went 2-1 to start the 2022 season and even beat the San Francisco 49ers in Week One. However, they won just one of their next 14 games of the regular season as they finished with a record of 3-14. 

They were in clear rebuild mode last season and traded away seven-time Pro Bowler Khalil Mack during last offseason. One of the few positives from the 2022 season was that Fields had a breakout year as he rushed for over 1000 yards. 

Now, head coach Matt Eberflus will undergo his second season in charge of the Bears as they build a roster around Fields to potentially start to compete in 2023. 

Can Fields take even greater strides in 2023? 

Is Fields good enough in the passing game? That’s one of the main concerns. But there is no doubt how good he is as a rushing threat. Fields rushed for 1143 yards last season and eight touchdowns in what was his breakout year. The former Ohio State quarterback is an elite rusher. Could he be on the same trajectory as Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts? 

Fields did improve in the passing game last season when compared to his rookie year. He had a passer rating of 73.2 in 2021 but reached 85.2 in 2022. However, he had a completion rate of just 60.4% last season which was one of the worst for a starter. Both Allen and Hurts had to develop their passing skills over their first few seasons in the league. 

Of course, there is also the need for a good offensive line. That protection for Fields is starting to shape up nicely. The left side of the o-line is extremely solid. Braxton Jones is set to start over at left tackle, whilst Teven Jenkens will take place at left guard. Both players had PFF grades of over 75 last season. 

The Bears also added tackle Darnell Wright and he will be an upgrade over at right tackle. Wright was selected with the tenth overall pick in the 2023 draft and he impressed up against third overall selection Will Anderson Jr. in college last season. He also allowed zero sacks in 2022. 

Do the Bears have enough weapons?

Having added D.J. Moore after trading the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers, the Bears finally have a WR1 for Fields to link up with. It looked like an excellent deal too. They have added more weapons for Fields and accumulated a further first, two seconds and a fifth round pick. 

Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are also on the roster. The receiving corps is looking a lot healthier compared to 2022. Let’s not forget about tight end Cole Kmet who started to build a good connection with Fields last season. Kmet proved to be an excellent threat in the end-zone, getting seven touchdowns in 2022. He could affect NFC North win totals this season.

Chicago Bears Current NFC North Win Totals: 7.5

The Bears have seen their last three out of five seasons record at least eight wins. Despite the last two season’s failing to hit over six wins, there is a lot more optimism in Chicago in 2023. That is largely down to the talent of Fields and if he can take similar strides as Allen and Hurts, the Bears could soon be a big threat. They have also made a couple of nice signings on the defense too which could help propel them over the win total. 

Best Bet: Over 7.5 wins 

Detroit Lions – NFC North Win Totals

  • NFC North Win Totals: 9.5
  • 2022 Record: 9-8

An extremely tough start for the Lions saw them go 1-6 through Week Seven in 2022. However, Dan Campbell turned things around as they won eight out of their final ten regular season games to finish with a +.500 season for the first time since 2017. 

They narrowly missed out on the postseason as the Seattle Seahawks pipped them to the final NFC playoff spot due to head-to-head record. Nevertheless, there were encouraging signs in Detroit in 2022. 

The question is: can they continue in their upward trajectory in 2023? The Lions dominated the head-to-head in the NFC North last season, winning five out of their six divisional games. They are set for yet another positive season this year as they look to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016. 

Do the Lions have enough playmakers? – the loss of Jameson Williams affects NFC North win totals

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs is the main addition to the roster after being drafted with 12th overall selection in 2023 NFL draft. He will attempt to make up for the loss of both Jamaal Williams and Jameson Williams due to his dual-threat ability. He is being talked about as an elite back already and he could have a huge say on NFC North win totals by the end of the new season. 

Sam LaPorta also looks to be a nice pick up at tight end after being selected in the second round and will add more pass-catching options. 

2022 12th overall pick Jameson Williams missed large parts of last season due to an ACL injury. However, he will also miss games in 2023 due to suspension. The NFL has suspended Williams for six games for betting on a college football game. 

The Lions have lost Jamaal Williams over the offseason as the running back has joined the Saints. He will likely be a big loss after he rushed for 1066 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. However, Detroit feels confident about running with Gibbs and former Chicago Bear David Montgomery for 2023. 

Nevertheless, there is a concern that the Lions could lack playmakers with no Wlliams and Willams. The pass-catching corps looks fairly weak outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. He was excellent last year and had over 1000 receiving yards but Detroit lacks quality outside of that. That could influence NFC North win totals. 

Jared Goff or Hendon Hooker? 

Jared Goff had a superb year in the Lions offense in 2022. The former Los Angeles Rams quarterback took big strides last year and had his tied-best PFF grade since 2019, seemingly getting back to his best. He managed to throw 29 touchdowns in 2022 (the second highest in his career), whilst only getting picked off seven times (a joint career low). His completion rate of 65.1% was the second highest of his career too so he certainly appears to be thriving in Campbell’s offense. 

His position at starting QB is not under threat right now since Hendon Hooker had to undergo surgery in December due to an ACL injury. However, the signing of Teddy Bridgewater will keep Goff on his toes. Hooker was selected in the third round of the 2023 draft and could provide competition for the starting job in the future. Hooker has shown promising signs during his recovery. 

Detroit Lions Current NFC North Win Totals: 9.5

The defense was poor last season and the Lions gave up the third most points on average in the NFL. That ultimately cost them a playoff spot, undoing all of the excellent work on the offense. There could be similar issues for the new season but the Lions should improve from 2022. 

Best Bet: Over 9.5 wins 

Green Bay Packers – NFC North Win Totals

  • NFC North Win Totals: 7.5
  • 2022 Record: 8-9

How will the Green Bay Packers deal without Aaron Rodgers? He has finally left Wisconsin after being drafted by the Packers in 2005. It’s a new era for the franchise and there is plenty of uncertainty ahead of the 2023 season. 

It wasn’t a fairytale ending for A Rod last year as they finished with an 8-9 record, failing to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2018. He had a down year last season and struggled without star wide receiver Davante Adams. 

Jordan Love will now become the starting quarterback at the Packers. We have only seen glimpses of what he can do in the NFL and there is a lot of pressure on him as he aims to become Rodgers’ successor. 

How much will the absence of Aaron Rodgers impact NFC North win totals?

How will Green Bay fare without Rodgers? This is the first season post-A Rod but Love has had plenty of time to learn off of the veteran over the last few years. Love was drafted 26th overall in the 2020 draft but has played just ten games for the Packers, starting just one.

It was a similar story for Rodgers who spent three years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before becoming the starter. Is Love the next franchise quarterback in Green Bay? Love’s performances for the upcoming season will have a huge say in NFC North win totals. 

There are also question marks surrounding the head coach. How will Matt LaFleur cope without Rodgers? Rodgers had been the starter in Green Bay since 2008 and this will be LaFleur’s first season without him as the starting quarterback. Plenty of questions surround the Packers in 2023 as their new era begins. 

Issues with weapons remains 

Rodgers didn’t have enough weapons last year. Especially after Green Bay traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. They do have 2022 second round pick Christian Watson on the roster who showed flashes in his rookie year. He had 611 receiving yards for seven touchdowns. 

However, they lost Allen Lazard who has followed Rodgers to New York. Fellow 2022 pick Romeo Doubs may have a bigger role in 2023; he started just seven games last season and got 425 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The Packers drafted tight end Luke Musgrace in the second round and he could see a lot of snaps in his rookie season. Still, the weapons for Love to use look weak. 

Green Bay should run the ball a lot this year as they adjust to life without Rodgers. With Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on the roster, they will provide a solid one-two punch from the backfield. Jones is also an impressive dual-threat back and will likely see a lot of touches in 2023. 

Green Bay Packers Current NFC North Win Totals: 7.5

The Packers are in deep transition after the losses of Adams and Rodgers over the past couple of years. They only managed to get to eight wins in 2022 even with A Rod and so it is unlikely that they will hit the over here. 

Best Bet: Under 7.5 wins 

Minnesota Vikings – NFC North Win Totals

  • NFC North Win Totals: 8.5
  • 2022 Record: 13-4

Finishing the regular season with a 13-4 record, the Vikings reached the playoffs for the first time since 2019 last season. It was also their best record since 2017 but they failed to deliver when it mattered, being eliminated in the Wild Card round. 

There were plenty of issues on defense last year. That has led to Minnesota getting rid of defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and Brian Flores will oversee proceedings in 2023. Nevertheless, Kevin O’Connell impressed in his first season as head coach and will be looking to push on this year. 

Justin Jefferson was named Offensive Player of the Year in 2022 and he built up a good rapport with quarterback Kirk Cousins. They have now added Jordan Addison to the receiving corps in what could be yet another dangerous offense in 2023. 

Will Kirk Cousins continue to crumble when it matters? 

Kirk Cousins had a fantastic season in 2022. He completed the second most passing yards of his career during the regular season but was quite clearly risky in his play as he was picked off a total of 14 times. That was a career high. However, Minnesota failed in the playoffs once again and Kirk has still won just one playoff game throughout his career. 

Addison, who was selected with the 23rd overall pick in the 2023 draft, will be a big boost to the offense. That will take some of the attention off of star receiver Justin Jefferson and give Cousins even more options. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is also playing in his first full season with the Vikings after being traded from the Lions last November. 

There will be changes at running back too since Dalvin Cook was released back in June. He had been dealing with multiple injuries over the last few seasons and despite reaching over 1000 rushing yards over the last two seasons, he has failed to live up to his 2020 season. The Vikings have clearly decided it is time to move on from Cook, especially since they have a capable back waiting in the wings in Alexander Mattison. 

Defense needs to improve – issues with the pass-rush and secondary

The Vikings had one of the worst pass-rushes in the NFL last season and they have also lost Za’Darius Smith. He managed to record ten sacks last season. However, they have Flores as their new defensive coordinator who should blitz more. 

They also struggled with their secondary last season which may look even worse in 2023. They have added Byron Murphy from the Arizona Cardinals who has developed well at corner over the last few years. The Vikings could be set to be another entertaining team this season. 

The Vikings gave up the fifth most points on defense in 2022. Former Saints outside linebacker Marcus Davenport was brought in during free agency but he is coming off a down year after recording just 0.5 sacks last season. With defensive issues still present at the Lions as well, the NFC North is set to be an entertaining one with plenty of high-scoring games forecasted. 

Minnesota Vikings Current NFC North Win Totals: 8.5

The Vikings’ win total for 2023 looks low considering they got 13 wins last year. The addition of Addison in the draft should open up the offense and allow the likes of Jefferson and Hockenson to prosper further. They should smash their win total in 2023. 

Best Bet: Over 8.5 wins 

NFC North Win Totals – FAQ 

How are NFC North win totals set?

Betting on win totals in the NFL is extremely popular. Bookmakers will set their win totals prior to the start of the season based on how many wins they think each team will get. They will evaluate a range of factors such as the draft, offseason moves and schedules before setting their win totals. 

How does a team’s roster affect NFC North win totals?

Although there are many factors that play a role in affecting NFC North win totals, judging the ability of each team’s roster is one of the key aspects. Bettors can analyze the quality of a team’s roster to help determine win totals. 

Which team is most likely to win the NFC North in 2023?

The Detroit Lions are the current favorites to win the NFC North and are currently priced at +125. However, the division looks competitive. The Minnesota Vikings are the second favorites (+210), followed by the Green Bay Packers (+275) and the Chicago Bears (+370). 

Which players are most likely to make the biggest effect on NFC North win totals?

There are a plethora of talented players that play in the NFC North. The likes of Justin Fields, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jordan Love and Justin Jefferson will make the biggest impacts on NFC North win totals. 

How can training camps impact NFC North win totals? 

How players are performing during training camp can be an indicator of how they may perform ahead of the new season. Some players also refrain from attending training camps over the summer due to issues with contracts. That can influence win totals.