2023 AFC East Win Totals Projections


With the new NFL season fast approaching, we take a look at projections for every division in the NFL. This week, we start with AFC East win totals. The AFC East appears to be one of the best and most competitive divisions in the NFL as we head towards the 2023 season.

The AFC East is made up of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and New England Patriots. Two of the four teams in the division managed to have winning seasons last year. They both clinched a spot in the playoffs, the Bills and Dolphins.

Bills and Dolphins made the playoffs last season

There have been plenty of changes over the offseason, from new rookies in the draft, trades, to free agency pickups. The AFC East is certainly home to an abundance of talent.

AFC East Win Totals

Below we analyze the AFC East win totals. I give my over or under picks in the build-up to what should be yet another fantastic season of football.

How many AFC East teams will make the playoffs this season? Will Rodgers be the difference maker in New York? Will Coach Bill pull another rabbit out of his hat? Tua – great QB, but can he stay healthy? Can the Bills finally get over the hump? Plenty of questions surround this division. Let’s try to answer some of them.

Buffalo Bills – AFC East Win Totals

  • AFC East Win Totals Projection: 10.5 
  • 2022 record: 13-3

The Buffalo Bills fell short at the Divisional round of the playoffs last season. That saw them lose 27-10 against a Cincinnati Bengals team that reached Super Bowl LVI. Once again, the Bills are expected to go on and win the division this year. That would make it four consecutive divisional victories. Where do they stand with Super Bowl futures?

Improving in the trenches

The Bills needed to improve in the trenches during the offseason and that development has come in the 2023 draft. With the 59th overall pick, the Bills selected guard O’Cyrus Torrence out of Florida. That should help provide some extra protection for elite quarterback Josh Allen. 

However, the Bills hardly need an elite offensive line due to the ability of Allen’s pocket presence and mobility to evade the incoming pass-rush. Still, some extra help there could ease some of the pressure on Allen.

Pass-catching corps

The Bills appear to have a lack of pass catchers and there have been worries about their receiving corps. Stefon Diggs has had issues during the offseason, albeit they appear to be resolved now.

Stefon Diggs has a lot to say about AFC East win totals

At times, Buffalo have been a little one dimensional in the passing game. Outside of Diggs, Allen failed to really put his trust in other receivers on the roster. Gabe Davis is coming off of his best season in Buffalo but is still yet to have a 1000+ yard season. Buffalo’s wide receiver stats beyond Diggs will determine AFC East win totals when all is said and done.

Drafting Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick at tight end will certainly help improve the pass-catching corps. Kincaid managed 890 receiving yards for eight touchdowns with Utah Utes in his final season in college. However, tight ends usually take a while to settle in before putting up big numbers in the NFL. 

Have the Bills missed the boat? 

The AFC East was trending down for some time. The Patriots had lost Tom Brady, the Dolphins hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2016 prior to last season and the Jets, well, they’re the Jets. It will be interesting to see how many of our handicapper football picks will side with the Bills.

The last few seasons appear to have been the best time for the Bills to win their maiden Super Bowl. They have reached the playoffs for the last three straight seasons. But unfortunately, they have been thwarted by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on two out of those three occasions.

Now that the AFC East now looks stronger than it has been for some time, the Bills may have missed out on their Super Bowl window. They still have plenty of talent on their roster and Allen looks to be getting better and better. But the division will be tough.

Buffalo Bills Current AFC East Win Totals: 10.5

A projection of 10.5 seems a little low for a Bills team that has gotten 11+ wins in the last three consecutive seasons. The division is expected to be harder than it has been for many a year but Allen and co. should get the job done. 

Best Bet: Over 

Miami Dolphins – AFC East Win Totals

  • AFC East Win Totals Projection: 9.5
  • 2022 record: 9-8

Can Tua stay healthy? His status changes AFC East win totals

That is one of the biggest questions for the Miami Dolphins ahead of the 2023 season. They started with a record of 8-3 last season, but lost five out of their last six games. Tua was inactive for four games last season, starting just 13 times.

His performances clearly took a hit after dealing with concussion issues (pardon the pun). AFC East win totals will look much different, depending on Tua’s health, he’s that much of a game changer.

Tua’s health will affect AFC East win totals

Miami’s offensive line had a 59.3 pass-blocking grade last season, according to PFF. Tua was clearly not protected enough last season and that ultimately led to a lot of the big hits that he took. It will be important that Terron Armstead and Liam Eichenberg can stay off the injured list all season. 

Tagovailoa finished the year with 25 touchdowns for eight interceptions. His passer rating of 105.5 led the league and Miami were clearly not the same team without him under center. If Tua can stay healthy next year and avoid big hits, the Dolphins offense could explode once more. 

Are Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle the best WR duo in the NFL?

The Dolphins have added some elite weapons to their roster in recent years. Jaylen Waddle was drafted sixth overall in the 2021 draft. They then traded for Tyreek Hill prior to the beginning of last season – arguably the best receiver in the league. Combined, Waddle and Hill have proven to be an elite wide receiver duo.

Hill and Waddle are electric

The explosive receivers both had over 1300 receiving yards last season, with Hill surpassing 1700 yards. If Tua can stay healthy then his connection with the elite pair will prove pivotal once more in what should be considered one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. Could they even be in with a shot at reaching the Super Bowl?

Miami Dolphins Current AFC East Win Totals: 9.5 

The Dolphins were on track to exceed nine wins last season if it wasn’t for the concussion issues with Tua. It all hinges on his fitness but for now, you can’t deny what should be a formidable offense that should improve again next year. 

Best Bet: Over 9.5 wins

New York Jets – AFC East Win Totals

  • AFC East Win Totals Projection: 9.5 
  • 2022 record: 7-10

Aaron Rodgers in New York – How This Affects AFC East Win Totals

The Jets finally have a QB!

But is Aaron Rodgers past his best?

He may be coming off a down year at Green Bay last year. However, there has been plenty of talk that this trade could emulate the success that Tom Brady had when he moved to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Both teams had strong defenses and just needed an extra bit of quality on offense. The Bucs were able to get a Super Bowl. Will history repeat itself in New York?

Offensive Weapons Followed ARod to NYC

Nathaniel Hackett is the new offensive coordinator for the Jets. He worked with the Packers and Rodgers for both of his 2020 and 2021 MVP winning seasons. With the Packers trading Davante Adams before last season, Rodgers was without a premium receiver. That was one of the big reasons for his decline last season.

With the Jets, Garrett Wilson will be his WR1. Wilson had a 1000+ receiving yard season in his first year in the NFL and won offensive rookie of the year for 2022. Wilson’s 2023 will definitely affect AFC East win totals.

Considering the awful quarterback situation for the Jets last year, Wilson had an incredible campaign. The Jets have also brought in a familiar face in Allen Lazard, who already has an established relationship with Rodgers from their time together in Green Bay.

An elite defense

Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich led the Jets to a top five defense last year and head coach Robert Saleh managed to get seven wins with dodgy quarterback play. Having started three quarterbacks last year in Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco & Mike White, there was no surprise that the offense was a disaster. 

The Quarterback situation over the past few years has been dire. The Jets have had a 50 pass grade over the last three years (ranked last in NFL), with a 52.4% accuracy rate (also last in the NFL).

If Rodgers can hit the ground running on offense, coupled with an elite New York defense, the Jets could be set for a playoff run. Could 2023 be the year they reach the playoffs for the first time since 2010?

New York Jets Current AFC East Win Totals: 9.5

The Jets have not managed to get to ten wins in any of their last seven seasons. Nevertheless, they made great strides last year and their defense should continue to perform into next. Now Rodgers is in New York, nothing but a spot in the playoffs will be acceptable. 

Best Bet: Over 9.5 wins

New England Patriots – AFC East Win Totals

  • AFC East Win Totals Projection: 7.5 
  • 2022 record: 8-9

Is time running out for Bill Belichick?

Questions have been raised about Bill Belichick for some time. He is now 71-years-old and there has been plenty of chatter that his time in the NFL as a head coach could be coming to an end.

Does Bill Belichick have anything left

There have been reports about disagreements with the owner Robert Kraft in light of the quarterback situation in New England too. Rumours continue to spread about Belichick’s future. 

With the lowest win projection out of the division, it appears that the Patriots could be the worst team in the AFC East. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they finish with the lowest win total in the division. Be sure to sign up for a free membership at Sports Hub to get access to every pick, all season long.

Mac or no Mac?

Seven of the Patriots’ eight wins last year came against backup quarterbacks. Hardly a convincing statistic. They have had a strong defense over the last couple of years but there have been many concerns over the offense. 

Belichick doesn’t seem to have much faith in Mac Jones, who the Pats drafted with the 15th overall pick in the 2021. The Boston crowd could quickly get on Jones’ back, as they often did last year, in favor of 2022 fourth round pick Bailey Zappe.

Pats fans seem desperate for Zappe to be the reincarnation of Brady. 

New England has now brought in Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach to help improve the poor offense and quarterback situation. There have been issues at the position ever since they lost Tom Brady, but Jones did make the Pro Bowl as a rookie.

New England Patriots Current AFC East Win Totals: 7.5 

In an extremely competitive division, the Patriots are not expected to do much. That is reflected by the projection and it’s unlikely that they will be able to get to eight wins again this year. 

Best Bet: Under 7.5 wins

AFC East Win Totals FAQ

Which NFL teams are in the AFC East?

The AFC East is currently made up of four teams: the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets and the New England Patriots.

Who has won the most AFC East divisional titles?

The New England Patriots have won the most division titles, with 22 to their name. The second most successful team is the Miami Dolphins who have won 14, followed by the Buffalo Bills with 13. The New York Jets have won just four division titles.

Who are the favorites to lead AFC East win totals in 2023?

The Buffalo Bills are the current favorites to win the division and there is a good chance they will lead AFC East win totals when all is said and done. The Jets are the sexy pick to take a major step forward, but they still need to do it on the field.

Is Josh Allen the best quarterback in the NFL?

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been one of the best players in the NFL since his 2020 breakout season. He has been named in two Pro-Bowls: 2020 and 2022. Not only is Allen excellent through the air, but his rushing ability makes him one of the deadliest dual-threats in the league.

What effect will Bill Belichick have on AFC East win totals?

Bill Belichick is considered to be one of the greatest ever NFL head coaches of all time. He has recorded the most Super Bowl wins as head coach (six). Coach Bill has been known to be a tough opponent for every team in their division. He will do his best to affect AFC East win totals.