NFL 2026: Updated AFC North Odds as Bengals Pull Off Dexter Lawrence Blockbuster

The Cincinnati Bengals pulled off the biggest stunner of draft week as they traded away their tenth overall pick for Giants DT Dexter Lawrence in one of the most uncharacteristic moves in franchise history. Head coach Zac Taylor, already under pressure after three straight playoff misses, knows exactly what surrendering his first-round pick means. No margin for error. No safety net. 

Dexy Arrives in Cincy 

You trade a top-ten selection for a 28-year-old defensive tackle, sign him to a one-year $28 million extension, and you’ve essentially written the sentence yourself: This roster is good enough to win now, especially with Sexy Dexy in it. When the trade confirmation came through last Saturday, Taylor didn’t hedge his language. “Gotta go win,” he told reporters on Monday. Three words. The AFC North doesn’t require more elaboration than that. 

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This is not how Cincy operates. Superstar quarterback Joe Burrow came through the draft. League-leading wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, too. But we cannot hide the fact that the Bengals went 6-11 in the regular season in 2025 — their worst season since 2020 — running out the most porous defense in the entire league. Luckily, the front office knows it and has acted: The Giants received the No. 10 overall pick. Cincinnati received a three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle, Boye Mafe, at $60 million, Jonathan Allen at $26 million, Bryan Cook at $40.25 million deal, and a defensive philosophy that looks nothing like the one that limped through last November. 

Online betting sites recalibrated their odds almost immediately. The popular online sports betting at Bovada betting platform now reads as follows: Ravens -150, Bengals +275, Steelers +600, Browns +1800. Each of these franchises enters 2026 at a distinctly different point in its story — one patching a dynasty, one finally declaring intent, one staring down an existential decision, one building the architecture around a question nobody has answered yet. Let’s take a look at each of them. 

Baltimore Ravens

For two consecutive years, Lamar Jackson had led this franchise to AFC North titles. Then his hamstring went in Week 4 against Kansas City — and the Ravens slumped to 1-5. But the cruelty of 2025 wasn’t the injury. It was the ending. 

Week 18. Pittsburgh. Baltimore had rallied back to 8-8 and victory against the Steelers at Acrisure would secure playoff football and a three-peat of AFC North titles. Instead, the Ravens lose 26-24, miss the postseason for the first time since 2021, and two days later, John Harbaugh — Super Bowl champion, winningest coach in franchise history — is fired. And to make matters worse, their destiny was in their hands, only for Tyler Bass to miss a walk-off game-winning field goal attempt, which consigned his team to defeat and an early trip to Cancun. 

The Trey Hendrickson signing — four years, $112 million, $60 million guaranteed — signals genuine defensive ambition, a pass rush upgrade that was desperately needed after a unit was exploited far too easily down the stretch. Guard John Simpson adds interior reinforcement at three years and $30 million. Tyler Huntley re-signed. But Tyler Linderbaum, their Pro Bowl center, walked to Las Vegas for $81 million on a deal Baltimore wouldn’t match — and now a new offensive staff is heading into the draft at pick No. 14 with a hole at the position that protects their most valuable asset. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Picture it: Lawrence collapsing the pocket from the three-technique. Mafe off the edge. Allen eating double teams in the gaps. Cook patrolling the secondary. And behind all of that, Joe Burrow, healthy, in a clean pocket, with Ja’Marr Chase running routes against a cornerback who has already burned two blocking assignments keeping Lawrence contained. That is the vision Cincinnati just purchased. That is what “gotta go win” looks like in schematic form. 

When the trade confirmation hit the locker room on Monday morning, Ted Karras called it “a big jolt of energy.” Lawrence himself told reporters he has “a fire in me” heading into Cincinnati. But the vulnerabilities are real: cornerback depth remains thin; Karras and Dalton Risner enter contract years demanding draft-room attention, and Orlando Brown Jr.’s extension steadies but doesn’t solve the left tackle picture entirely. 

Joe Flacco is here as QB depth. And Burrow’s injury history remains, as it always has been, the single variable that determines whether any of this matters. But at +275? A healthy Burrow behind this rebuilt defensive front is a legitimate championship blueprint. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s be real: the Steelers’ entire offseason is five words. Does Aaron Rodgers come back?

Mike Tomlin went 9-8 in what would ultimately be his final season after two decades in the Steel City, made the playoffs, and sealed that postseason spot on the exact same day that Baltimore missed the field goal that ended Harbaugh’s career. He walked following the playoff drubbing at the hands of the Houston Texans, with Mike McCarthy since taking over, and the new man at the helm has weapons. 

GM Omar Khan has managed to add Michael Pittman Jr. — three years, $59 million from Indianapolis — to finally give Aaron Rodgers a genuine second weapon alongside DK Metcalf. Cameron Heyward re-signed at two years, $32.25 million, keeping the defensive anchor in place. Jamel Dean bolsters the secondary at three years, $36.75 million. Asante Samuel Jr. added. Rico Dowdle locked in on two years at $12.25 million for backfield reliability. On paper, this is a team built to compete. 

The problem is that it’s built around a 42-year-old quarterback who has not confirmed he is returning. Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 2025 — functional, if not transcendent.  But if he doesn’t return, the depth chart behind him is an unanswered question that no amount of receiver acquisition or secondary investment can survive. 

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson spent all of 2025 on the reserve/PUP list. The Browns played an entire season without the starting quarterback they made the ill-fated decision to bet the house on, while he sat around collecting fully guaranteed money from an Achilles that simply refused to cooperate. Shedeur Sanders rose from number four on the depth chart to take over as starter, but he never really showed that he could be the man long term, and questions remain as to who will start in Week 1 in 2026. 

Four offensive linemen. Tytus Howard at three years, $63 million. Zion Johnson at three years, $49.5 million. Elgton Jenkins at two years, $24 million. Teven Jenkins re-signed. Roughly $150 million invested in a line that ranked dead last in pressure rate allowed — protecting whoever wins a quarterback competition between Sanders and fellow sophomore Dillon Gabriel in a division that contains Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and potentially Aaron Rodgers. 

The O-line investment is real foundation-building — the kind of patient, structural work that actually precedes sustained winning rather than disguising its absence. Sanders enters the competition with apparent momentum; new head coach Todd Monken, who worked with Jackson in Baltimore, has shown visible enthusiasm for the Colorado product. But the receiver room — Jeudy, Tillman, Bond — doesn’t scare anyone. 

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