Week 6 NFL Futures Report

Updated:

We’re heading towards the end of the week and another NFL Sunday is just around the corner so you know it’s time to examine Week 6 NFL futures! 

I have been providing you with weekly updates on the odds for NFL futures, analyzing how and why the prices are changing. How are your pre-season futures bets looking? Are you still waiting for the right time to place your bet? 

The San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles finally lost during Week 6. How will those losses impact NFL futures? Be sure to check out how Week 6 NFL futures look below. 

Week 6 NFL Futures – Top Markets 

Each week I have been updating the odds for six of the leading NFL futures markets. These markets will be analyzed in Week 6 NFL futures:

  • Super Bowl Winner 
  • AFC Champions 
  • NFC Champions
  • MVP 
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year

It is very common for bettors to place their futures bets prior to the beginning of the season. That way, you can often find big prices and, if you are able to gain an insight over the bookies before the season starts, you can find some great value. 

However, the first few weeks of the season allows bettors to get a better idea about how a particular team or player will perform. It also means that the bookmakers will too. 

Nevertheless, if you keep track of the changing prices of futures each week, it means you will be better informed about when the right time is to place your bet. So, let’s get into my Week 6 NFL Futures Report. 

Super Bowl Winner

I will kick off Week 6 NFL futures by investigating the prices for the Super Bowl winner. Here are the odds after Week 5: 

  • San Francisco 49ers (+350)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+650)
  • Buffalo Bills (+950)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1200)
  • Detroit Lions (+1700)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1800)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
  • Cleveland Browns (+2800)

The Niners’ defeat against the Cleveland Browns means their price has gotten longer but they still remain the favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII. There hasn’t been too much change in the odds for the top five contenders. 

How have odds for the Super Bowl winner developed after Week 6? You can find the latest odds here: 

  • San Francisco 49ers (+425)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
  • Buffalo Bills (+900)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
  • Detroit Lions (+1300)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1600)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+2500)

The Detroit Lions, however, have been heavily backed of late and they now have the joint-best record in the league after going 5-1 with their 20-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dan Campbell’s team are serious contenders. 

AFC Champions

There are a number of top teams in the AFC. But who are the favorites to go on and become AFC champion this year? Here are the odds for the top five candidates after Week 5: 

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+225)
  • Miami Dolphins (+470)
  • Buffalo Bills (+475)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+850)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200)

The market looks extremely similar to Week 5 after Week 6. The Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars all won last week so they remain the top contenders. 

Here are the latest odds after Week 6: 

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+220)
  • Miami Dolphins (+460)
  • Buffalo Bills (+470)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+800)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200)

The Jags went 5-2 on Thursday night after beating the New Orleans Saints 31-24 in the first game of Week 7. That is now four straight victories for Jacksonville and they appear to be one of the strongest teams in the AFC. With their price still sitting over +1000, now could be a good time to back them. 

NFC Champions 

It’s time to investigate the odds for the NFC champion now. Here are the prices for the top five contenders after Week 5: 

  • San Francisco 49ers (+160)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+290)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+600)
  • Detroit Lions (+700)
  • New Orleans Saints (+1800)

It seems as though the markets for NFL futures are starting to settle now and changes are becoming less erratic every week. In spite of the 49ers’ defeat, they are still the most likely team to go on and win the NFC this year, according to the sportsbooks. 

Check out the updated prices after Week 6: 

  • San Francisco 49ers (+165)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+300)
  • Detroit Lions (+550)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+550)
  • Seattle Seahawks (+2000)

The Saints and the Seattle Seahawks continue to switch places and this time the Hawks have re-entered the top five, despite losing 17-13 to the Bengals in Week 5. Seattle were on bye during Week 6 but the Saints have just one win over their past five games. 

MVP

My Week 6 NFL Futures Report not only analyzes team futures but also player futures. Let’s get things started by looking at the odds for MVP. Here are the odds for the top ten players after Week 5: 

  • Patrick Mahomes (+350) QB Kansas City Chiefs
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+500) QB Miami Dolphins
  • Brock Purdy (+600) QB San Francisco 49ers
  • Jalen Hurts (+600) QB Philadelphia Eagles
  • Josh Allen (+700) QB Buffalo Bills
  • Justin Herbert (+1600) QB Los Angeles Chargers
  • Lamar Jackson (+2000) QB Baltimore Ravens
  • Christian McCaffrey (+2000) RB San Francisco 49ers
  • Trevor Lawrence (+2000) QB Jacksonville Jaguars 
  • Jared Goff (+2500) QB Detroit Lions

Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the top three candidates to win MVP and the trio have taken it in turns to lead the market this year. Tua is back as the favorite after throwing three touchdowns and zero interceptions in Miami’s 42-21 come-from-behind triumph against the Carolina Panthers. 

MVP is always an incredibly interesting battle each year. Below you can find the latest odds following Week 6 action: 

  • Tua Tagovailoa (+350) QB Miami Dolphins
  • Patrick Mahomes (+375) QB Kansas City Chiefs
  • Josh Allen (+700) QB Buffalo Bills
  • Jalen Hurts (+800) QB Philadelphia Eagles
  • Brock Purdy (+1000) QB San Francisco 49ers
  • Lamar Jackson (+1500) QB Baltimore Ravens
  • Jared Goff (+2000) QB Detroit Lions
  • Trevor Lawrence (+2000) QB Jacksonville Jaguars 
  • Christian McCaffrey (+2500) RB San Francisco 49ers
  • Justin Herbert (+2500) QB Los Angeles Chargers

The hype around Brock Purdy has simmered after his price was massively cut from Week 4 to Week 5. However, he wasn’t at his best against the Browns, completing just 44.4% of his passes. He has moved from +600 back up to +1000. 

Jared Goff of the Lions is an intriguing contender and his price has been getting shorter each week. Per PFF, he is the highest graded quarterback in the league this season. That means he offers some good value at +2000, especially with Detroit playing the way they are right now. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year 

How have prices been changing for rookies? First up I will examine Offensive Rookie of the Year odds in my Week 6 NFL Futures Report. Below are the prices after Week 5: 

  • C.J. Stroud (-110) QB Houston Texans 
  • Puka Nacua (+350) WR Los Angeles Rams 
  • Bijan Robinson (+350) RB Atlanta Falcons 
  • Jordan Addison (+1800) WR Minnesota Vikings 
  • Zay Flowers (+2000) WR Baltimore Ravens 

The top five candidates haven’t changed from Week 5 to 6. However, there have been some slight price changes, with C.J. Stroud getting longer. He finally threw his first NFL interception last week but he is still performing extremely well in Houston. 

Here are the updated odds for OROY through six weeks of football: 

  • C.J. Stroud (-175) QB Houston Texans 
  • Puka Nacua (+450) WR Los Angeles Rams 
  • Bijan Robinson (+550) RB Atlanta Falcons 
  • Jordan Addison (+1600) WR Minnesota Vikings 
  • Zay Flowers (+2000) WR Baltimore Ravens

Jordan Addison has a chance to show what he can do in Minnesota with the injury to star receiver Justin Jefferson. Despite making just three catches against the Chicago Bears last week, Addison still scored a touchdown to take his total to four on the year. 

Puka Nacua is the most likely receiver to win the award but he finally slowed down during Week 6, making just four catches for 26 yards. His number of targets will dry up with the return of Cooper Kupp. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year 

My Week 6 NFL Futures Report perennially concludes with Defensive Rookie of the Year. Check out the odds for DROY after Week 5: 

  • Jalen Carter (-175) DT Philadelphia Eagles
  • Devon Witherspoon (+300) CB Seattle Seahawks 
  • Will Anderson Jr. (+1400) DE Houston Texans
  • Brian Branch (+1400) S Detroit Lions
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (+3000) LB Los Angeles Chargers

Jalen Carter has the highest PFF grade out of any interior defender in the league, let alone out of rookies. He is particularly impressive in the pass-rush and has a total of 23 pressures through Week 6. 

Take a look the latest prices after Week 6 for DROY here: 

  • Jalen Carter (-175) DT Philadelphia Eagles
  • Devon Witherspoon (+275) CB Seattle Seahawks 
  • Will Anderson Jr. (+1000) DE Houston Texans
  • Brian Branch (+1400) S Detroit Lions
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (+3000) LB Los Angeles Chargers

However, another strong candidate and the third overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, Will Anderson, is having an excellent year. He has actually recorded more pressures than Carter (24) and has the highest PFF grade out of any rookie edge defender.