Boxing Betting – Big fights on tap: Canelo, Inoue, Loma, and Tyson-Paul is “real”


Boxing betting offers a unique thrill, and the excitement ramps up when fighters like Canelo Alvarez, Naoya Inoue, and Vasyl Lomachenko step into the ring.

With big fights on the horizon, including the much-discussed Tyson-Paul showdown, bettors and fans alike are buzzing with anticipation.

Each match has its own storylines and stakes, influencing odds and predictions. As these fighters lace up their gloves to confront their rivals, we delve deep into what makes each bout a must-watch event and how their outcomes could resonate throughout the boxing world.

Canelo Alvarez is rich. Canelo Alvarez is famous. And when you’re rich and famous, people out there among the general public will take shots at you, cheap or otherwise. 

In Alvarez’s case, the latest fashionable dig is to blast him for not being willing to fight the rather fearsome super middleweight David Benavidez, who now has to look elsewhere to earn a big payday.

Okay, some of the criticisms may have some foundation. But it’s that time-tested principle of “risk vs. reward” that every fighter and manager should live by. And besides, it’s not as if Canelo hasn’t put himself on the line against anybody, having, through the years, taken on the likes of Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, Island Lara, James Kirkland, Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, Danny Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, Callum Smith, Billie Joe Saunders, Caleb Plant, and Jermell Charlo.

And lest you think he hasn’t put himself in situations where it was tough to win, he has, after all, engaged with the likes of Floyd Mayweather, Gennady Golovkin, and Dmitri Bivol. 

Canelo has been among the world’s best pound-for-pound fighters for 12 or 13 years. At age 33, he has only a certain number of challenges left.

Perhaps one of the stiffest will come across him on Saturday night as he takes on the undefeated Jaime Munguia at the T-Mobile Center in Las Vegas. 

Learn more about the fundamentals of betting on fights with our detailed guide on how to bet on fighting.

Boxing Betting Odds for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia 

Canelo is the solid favorite in this fight, according to the boxing betting odds that have been established for a fight that will be contested for the undisputed (IBF, WBA, WBO, WBC) super middleweight (168-pound) championship:

  • Canelo Alvarez  -550
  • Jaime Munguia +375
  • Over 10.5 Rounds  -280
  • Under 10.5 Rounds  +220

Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KO’s) has moved up in weight throughout his career, and in boxing, the “Peter principle” often applies, so there is a point where a fighter has moved up a little too much. That appears to have happened to him in May 2022, when he lost a unanimous decision in an attempt to win Bivol’s light heavyweight crown. 

There have also been instances in which Canelo’s opponents moved up beyond their optimum weight. In the opinion of some, that’s what may be happening here with Munguia (43-0, 34 KO’s), who turned pro in 2014 and has fought as low as 139 pounds. Alvarez’s Mexican compatriot hit his stride in the junior middleweight (or super welterweight, if you prefer) class, winning the WBO belt at 154 pounds with a fourth-round TKO of Sadam Ali in May 2018 and going on to make five title defenses. 

After that, he moved up to middleweight; for his last two bouts, he’s been 168 pounds. His last win came against a previous Canelo victim, as he stopped John Ryder in nine rounds on January 27. He’s not taking such a giant leap; the truth is, he hasn’t fought at 154 since September of 2019.

For more insights on effective strategies, explore the best ways to bet on a fight.

Quick analysis – Alvarez vs. Munguia 

Munguia has some pop in his punch; there is no denying that. He is resilient and busy in the ring. Let’s face it; no one gets to 43-0 while fighting at a championship level if they’re not bringing something to the table. And Canelo may be regressing a little; we grant you that.

But simultaneously, Munguia isn’t the most difficult puzzle to solve. Because of that, he’s had a way of making some fights harder than they should be. One notable example is his super middleweight fight with Sergey Derevyanchenko last June. He was in trouble a few times, and the Ukrainian may have come out with a majority draw had he not gone down from a body shot in the 12th and final round.

Munguia’s defense has holes, and that is the by-product of mistakes. You can get away with that against one level of fighter, but it has a way of catching up to a guy when he moves to a higher level. Canelo can exploit mistakes; if they aren’t made with a big KO shot, it could be an accumulation.

When you look at the “Method of Victory” prop, it brings more options:

  • Alvarez by Decision -130
  • Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ  +175
  • Munguia by Decision  +850
  • Munguia by KO, TKO or DQ  +1000
  • Draw  +2000

Ultimately, Munguia will have been on the receiving end of too much, and he’ll go, which gives us more value with the Alvarez “KO, TKO, DQ” prop at +175. In the over/under rounds, the “under” would be in play here, too. 

Naoye Inoue puts his title on the line against Luis Nery 

There are perhaps several candidates who can claim to be the world’s best “pound for pound.” 

But the most imposing of those competitors might be Japan’s Naoye Inoue, who has won championships in four divisions, even after skipping one entirely, and will put his junior featherweight (122-pound) crown at risk when he meets Mexico’s Luis Nery on Monday at the Tokyo Dome. 

Here are the boxing betting odds on that bout:

  • Naoya Inoue  -1500
  • Luis Nery  +800
  • Over 6.5 Rounds  -115
  • Under 6.5 Rounds -115

Inoue is an explosive blend of technical boxing ability and fierce power. In this game, it is hard to say anybody is unbeatable, but in his 26 pro fights (23 of which he’s won inside the distance), he has thus far proven to be just that.

He started his career as a junior flyweight and won the WBC title in that division in April 2014. Later in the year, he moved to 115 pounds – leapfrogging the flyweight division – and scored a second-round KO over Omar Narvaez, who had a 43-1-2 record, to capture the WBO junior bantamweight crown. 

When he reached for bantamweight gold, he did it with a flourish, as he stopped Jamie McDonnell in one round in 2018 (WBA title). A year and a half later he earned a hard-fought decision win over future Hall of Famer Nonito Donaire. Later he would stop Donaire in two rounds as he put on a ferocious display in the rematch.

Last July, he was expected to be challenged by Philadelphia’s Stephen Fulton, but instead, he put on a clinic, stopping Fulton in eight rounds and seizing the WBO and WBC championships at 122 pounds. Last time out, he unified with the IBF and WBA titles by scoring a tenth-round stoppage of Marlon Tapales on December 26.

Nery (35-1, 27 KOs) is a southpaw from Tijuana who only had the benefit of nine amateur bouts. In August 2017, he stopped Shinsuke Yamanaka in four rounds to win the WBC bantamweight title. He tested positive for drugs afterward; the WBC did not strip him but ordered a rematch. For that, he came in overweight but did manage to stop Yamanaka in two. In 2020, he moved up to 122 and won the WBC belt in a decision over Aaron Alameda. 

He suffered his only defeat when he was stopped in seven rounds by Brandon Figueroa in an attempt to unify the WBC and WBA titles.

Quick analysis – Inoue vs. Nery 

Nery is a willing competitor, that’s for sure. He’s a southpaw. He’s not a conventional stand-up boxer. He is aggressive. He comes from a lot of angles. He does not use his jab as a primary weapon, but instead basically employs it as a range-finder and also to maintain distance against his opponent. 

He has power, which Inoue needs to be mindful of. But is it crushing power?

You see, if you’re going to have a chance to beat Inoue, you need to be either a superior boxer or a superior puncher. And Nery is neither.

When Stephen Fulton was signed to fight Inoue, it was the opinion of many “experts” that he had a legitimate chance. But while he was solid all the way around, there was nothing truly special about Fulton, and he got swallowed up.

Nery is a good body puncher, but he doesn’t necessarily like to get hit to the body. In fact, Figueroa knocked him out with a body shot.

One way or another, he will slow down as the fight progresses. So, while he may be able to hold his own early, he’s not going to be a strong finisher.

Inoue is way too complete a fighter. He’s going to do whatever he has to do to win. But Nery may get past the 6.5-round mark.

Kambosos tries to revive his career vs. Lomachenko.

Many boxing fans are aware of Vasyl Lomachenko’s legendary amateur career. He captured two Olympic gold medals competing for Ukraine, and his reported amateur record was 396-1.

Naturally a guy with that kind of background is going to have an accelerated path as a pro, but Loma was thrown into a world championship fight in just his second outing as a professional. He lost that one to Orlando Salido, but he did win a belt three months later. 

It did not take long before he had developed a reputation as a punching machine. Lomachenko was so relentless that he made very good fighters like Nicholas Walters, Guillermo Rigonderaux, and Jorge Linares give up in frustration.

But he was surprised by Teofimo Lopez, who seized his championship with a textbook performance in October 2020. 

Rehabbing his career hasn’t been all that simple. Lomachencko was beaten by Devin Haney on a decision a year ago.

And on May 11 he crosses paths with George Kambosos, who scored a big upset over Lopez to win the WBA, IBF and WBO lightweight titles, then looked somewhat impotent in two decision losses to Haney after that.

So, is this his last chance to milk what equity he built with the Lopez win? In the boxing betting odds on this fight, he’s an underdog:

  • Vasyl Lomachenko  -600
  • George Kambosos +400
  • Over 10.5 Rounds  -350
  • Under 10.5 Rounds  +2600
  • Quick analysis — Lomachenko vs. Kambosos

Australia does big boxing crowds, which is a pretty good explanation as to why this fight has been placed in Perth. So this would theoretically serve to Kambosos’ advantage. But you have to have the ability to capitalize on that. Does he? Yes, he scored an early knockdown over Lopez, who may have been so shocked that it established the tone for the fight. But Kambosos looked kind of bewildered and without a plan against Haney. 

At the age of 36, does a year of inactivity do Loma any good? Not necessarily. And when he fought Haney, he struggled with being able to set the kind of pace he’s been accustomed to. 

So Haney confused Loma to some extent. And he kept Kambosos off-balance to a much more considerable extent. 

But Loma does not present the same kind of style problem Haney does, and there is anything that gives Kambosos a chance, it’s just that. 

Has Loma slowed down? Yeah, probably. But I just see a little too much of a class difference between these two. And barring an outright robbery by the judges (which, in the opinion of some, gave Jeff Horn a decision over Manny Pacquiao down under), it’s that difference that tilts this toward Lomachenko, although I’d look for this to go “Over” the 10.5 rounds. 

Tyson-Paul fight gets a ruling, and some rules, too

The Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation has determined that it is going to sanction the July 20 Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson bout at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as an official, regulated fight – “real,” if you will. 

It seems obvious to me that this was the end result of a lot of negotiation; not only with the TDLR but with Netflix as well, because simply put, it “sells” better if it is marketed as a real fight.

This means that the bout will have a referee and judges who will score the bout, and the result will be on the fight records of both contestants.

There are a few “variations” that may or may not turn some fans off. It’s going to be eight rounds, with two minutes per round. And the two guys will be wearing 14-ounce gloves, which appears to be a compromise between 10 and 18 ounces.

Mike Tyson says he has abstained from smoking pot for quite some time now, which must be difficult for him since he heads up a company that sells cannabis-based products. However, the TDLR includes marijuana among its drug testing requirements.

There is a story going around that Paul has bulked up and is currently about 230 pounds. I’m not sure how much that’s going to do for him. 

We went to a random sportsbook and saw Paul priced as the -260 favorite, with Tyson at +200. 

We’ll talk more about this as the fight approaches, in addition to the main undercard bout, which is a rematch between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano, which could be a classic.

Garcia tests dirty. What are the consequences?

Ryan Garcia, who weighed 3.2 pounds over the 140-pound limit and thus disqualified himself from a title opportunity before going out and beating the aforementioned Haney on a decision, may have disqualified himself completely. 

Garcia tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug ostarine, both before and after the fight. This news was reported by ESPN after the Voluntary Anti-Doping Association (VADA) sent a letter to all the interested parties and it wound up getting leaked. 

Garcia denies he took anything illegal, and had a period of ten days to ask that his B-sample be tested.  

Haney, who got knocked down three times by Garcia, said, “This puts the fight in a completely different light.” You know, if I was him, I wouldn’t do anything at all because it sounds as if he’s just making excuses. 

As for what could happen to him, he could be subjected to the revocation of his license, a medical suspension, fines, and even a forfeiture of purse money by the New York State Athletic Commission, as I am assuming the drug he tested positive for fits into their list of prohibited substances. 

The medical suspension in particular is something that other athletic commissions are going to be compelled to honor. So all this could out Garcia out of business for a while.

In addition to being a handicapper, CHARLES JAY is a former promoter, matchmaker and manager in professional boxing, and is an inductee into the Florida Boxing Hall of Fame.