Following a fortnight of high-octane tennis action at Melbourne Park, the time has come to lock in your 2024 Australian Open finals picks.
In the women’s singles final, Aryna Sabalenka will aim to defend her AO crown against Qinwen Zheng. The men’s singles final will see Daniil Medvedev take on Jannik Sinner, who sensationally knocked out Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
You can find my Australian Open finals picks and predictions towards the bottom of this page. First, though, let’s start by discussing all the key talking points.
The Story of the Tournament
As expected, the 2024 Australian Open has served up tons of memorable moments. The first major tournament of the year has seen new stars burst onto the scene, veteran players bow out, and countless upsets.
The women’s singles event has been especially intriguing, with four of the top eight seeds falling in the second round. Iga Swiatek – the pre-tournament favorite – was also eliminated in round three.
Two unseeded players and one qualifier reached the quarterfinals, with Dayana Yastremska making it all the way to the semifinals. However, the qualifier eventually fell to Zheng, while Sabalenka defeated Coco Gauff to punch her ticket to the final.
In the men’s singles event, the biggest story is undoubtedly Novak Djokovic’s loss to Sinner in the semifinals. Djokovic won 10 AO titles in 16 years between 2008 and 2023, but his reign came to an end this year.
Eight of the top 12 seeds made it to the quarterfinals, although number-two seed Carlos Alcaraz was eliminated by Alexander Zverev, who threw away a two-set lead against Medvedev in the semifinals.
2024 Australian Open Finals Picks & Predictions
Now that you’re up to speed on how the tournament has unfolded, you probably want to check out my Australian Open finals picks and predictions, right? Well, now is the time!
The women’s singles final will take place on Saturday, January 27, and is scheduled to begin at 19:30 local time. The men’s singles final will go down on Sunday, January 28, and will start at a similar time.
Can Zheng upset the odds and dethrone Sabalenka? Will Sinner claim his first major title at the expense of Medvedev? Keep reading to discover my 2024 Australian Open finals picks and predictions.
Qinwen Zheng vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
Odds: Qinwen Zheng (+425) / Aryna Sabalenka (-650)
If the moneyline odds are anything to go by, Sabalenka should wipe the floor with Zheng. The bookies’ favorite is priced at just -650 to win the women’s singles final, while the underdog is priced at +425.
When you consider that Sabalenka has yet to drop a single set at this year’s Australian Open, the odds make perfect sense. The 25-year-old lost only six games across her opening three matches before easing past Amanda Anisimova and Barbora Krejcikova.
Coco Gauff pushed Sabalenka close in the semifinals, but the Belarusian eventually won 7-6 (7-2), 6-4. Now, the question on everyone’s lips is – can Sabalenka win back-to-back Australian Open titles?
If the reigning champion wants to defend her crown, she will need to overcome Zheng. The Chinese 21-year-old has exceeded all expectations at Melbourne Park, producing a six-match winning streak to reach the final.
It is worth noting, however, that Zheng has not faced a seeded player at this year’s tournament. Plus, three of her six matches have gone the distance, meaning she will be more fatigued than Sabalenka.
This is Zheng’s first major final, having only reached the quarterfinals of the 2023 US Open. By contrast, Sabalenka has already reached two major finals – triumphing in Melbourne last year – and she also has five semifinal appearances to her name.
When you couple Sabalenka’s unstoppable form with her superior experience in major tournaments, all the signs point towards a second successive AO triumph for the defending champ. That said, Zheng won’t go down without a fight.
Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK
Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Odds: Jannik Sinner (-264) / Daniil Medvedev (+200)
Sinner finds himself in his first-ever major final after doing the unthinkable – beating Djokovic in the AO semifinals. To put Sinner’s achievements into perspective, Djokovic won all 10 of his previous AO semifinals before Friday’s failure.
Nevertheless, Sinner deserves his place in the showpiece. The 22-year-old Italian didn’t drop a single set across his opening five matches, defeating three seeded players – including number-five seed Andrey Rublev – in the process.
Meanwhile, Medvedev came from two sets down to beat Zverev in an epic semifinal showdown on Friday. Trailing 5-7, 3-6, the Russian won two tiebreakers before winning the fifth set 6-3.
Medvedev is now a six-time major finalist, having lost the AO final in 2021 and 2022. With Djokovic out of the picture, the 2021 US Open champion will be confident of adding a second major trophy to his silverware collection.
As for Sinner, he possesses far less experience in major tournaments. The rising star may have reached the Wimbledon semifinals last year, but he doesn’t know what it feels like to set foot on the court with a major title up for grabs.
With that in mind, I’m backing Medvedev to triumph on Sunday. The Russian’s know-how should get him over the line against the inexperienced Sinner, who will likely put up a strong fight in vain.
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev (+200)
Lock In Your Australian Open Finals Picks
I don’t know about you, but I’m super excited for the AO finals. Not only will we see a first-time men’s singles champion, but we could also witness Sabalenka claim back-to-back titles in Melbourne.
Unfortunately for Sinner, I think Sunday’s showdown will be a step too far for the young Italian. If you want to access my pick for the women’s singles final, you will need to sign in to your Sports Hub account.
That concludes my 2024 Australian Open finals picks and predictions. Be sure to stick around for more tennis betting advice, as there are plenty of ATP and WTA events coming up.