2023-24 NBA Championship Futures – Odds & Value Plays

Updated:

The 2024 NBA Championship futures betting market is heating up. The 2023-24 NBA regular season will begin on October 24th, but now is the most opportune time to analyze the odds to find value plays.

Last season, eight teams had better NBA Championship futures odds than the Denver Nuggets during the offseason. Denver were paying +1800 to win the 2023 NBA Championship last offseason.

Find the value in NBA Championship futures
Find the value in NBA Championship futures

Denver are leading the 2024 NBA Championship futures odds at +475 this offseason.

2024 NBA Championship Futures Odds – Market Leaders

Here are the favorites to win the 2024 NBA Championship (odds below +1000):

  • Denver Nuggets (+475)
  • Boston Celtics (+500)
  • Phoenix Suns (+650)
  • Milwaukee Bucks (+850)
  • Miami Heat (+900)

Five teams have 2024 NBA Championship futures odds below +1000. The Suns opened up at +850 and the Heat opened up at +1800. Both teams have already seen lots of line movement this offseason.

You could make a case for all five of these basketball teams winning the 2024 NBA Championship.

The Nuggets utilized a slow pace (98.74 – 24th) and efficiency to win last season. Denver ranked 1st in FG% (50.4), 4th in 3P% (37.9), 2nd in assists (28.9) and 5th in offensive rating (116.8). Nikola Jokic will look to lead the Nuggets to a repeat, which hasn’t happened since the Warriors in 2017 and 2018.

Don’t Sleep on These Teams

Boston and Phoenix have both strengthened their rosters. Kristaps Porzingis (23.2 PPG and 8.4 RPG last season) is now with the Celtics. Boston scored 117.9 PPG (4th) and allowed 110.9 PPG (4th) last season.

The Suns traded for Bradley Beal to form a superteam with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix lack depth, though. The Suns were strong defensively (112.3 DEFRTG – 7th) last season, but they have to get better on offense (114.5 OFFRTG – 14th) if they want to win the 2024 NBA Championship.

Milwaukee had the best regular season record last season (58-24) and Giannis Antetokounmpo will keep them contending, but it feels like the Bucks championship window is closing. Miami were offering value at +1800 odds, but at +900 odds and no guarantee they get Damian Lillard, I’d avoid them currently.

2024 NBA Championship Futures – Contenders

Here are the contenders in the 2024 NBA Championship futures market (odds below +3000):

  • Los Angeles Lakers (+1200)
  • Golden State Warriors (+1300)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (+1500)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (+1800)
  • Dallas Mavericks (+2200)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (+2800)

You can never count out LeBron James in the NBA playoffs. Anthony Davis is a star when on the court and D’Angelo Russell is a solid PG, but they don’t have enough depth to defeat the best teams, which was evident when the Nuggets swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.

Chris Paul will look to win his first NBA title with the Warriors this season. The Warriors ranked 1st in pace (102.54) last season and scored 118.9 PPG (2nd), but they allowed 116.6 PPG (21st). The Warriors aren’t getting any younger and the team’s lack of size is becoming a problem on the defensive end.

Harden Finally Out Of Philly

Until the James Harden drama unfolds, the 76ers are a fade for 2024 NBA Championship futures despite pushing the Celtics to seven games in the second round of the playoffs last season.

When your two star players can’t stay on the court (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George), it’s difficult to win in the playoffs. The Clippers might make the playoffs, but will suffer another early exit.

Where do the Grizz stand with NBA Championship futures
Where do the Grizz stand with NBA Championship futures

Memphis ranked 3rd in DEFRTG (110.7) last season, but Ja Morant is suspended for the first 25 games of the regular season. If Steven Adams can stay healthy, the team will contend in the West, but this isn’t a championship roster unless Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane turn into superstars this season.

The Mavericks should improve on offense after scoring 114.2 PPG (16th) last season. The defense will be a weak spot with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Dallas need a star big man to contend for an NBA title.

2024 NBA Championship Futures – Longshots

Here are the remaining 2024 NBA Championship futures odds for the rest of the basketball teams:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (+3000)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (+5000)
  • New York Knicks (+5000)
  • Sacramento Kings (+5500)
  • Brooklyn Nets (+7000)
  • Atlanta Hawks (+7500)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (+7500)
  • Toronto Raptors (+10000)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (+10000)
  • Chicago Bulls (+17000)
  • San Antonio Spurs (+20000)
  • Utah Jazz (+25000)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (+25000)
  • Orlando Magic (+30000)
  • Indiana Pacers (+30000)
  • Houston Rockets (+40000)
  • Charlotte Hornets (+50000)
  • Detroit Pistons (+60000)
  • Washington Wizards (+100000)

Most of the basketball teams on this list have no shot at winning the 2024 NBA Championship.

Cleveland ranked 1st in points allowed (106.5 PPG) last season, but they only scored 112.3 PPG (25th). Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will score 20.0+ PPG, but they need more scoring.

The Pelicans could make the NBA playoffs if Zion Williamson is healthy, but they won’t be able to win a series against the top teams in the West. The Knicks and Kings are tempting at the current odds, but can either team win a series against the top contenders in the playoffs? Neither team has shown the ability.

2023-24 NBA Championship Odds Updates

We’ll be updating the 2023-24 NBA Championship futures odds throughout the season. There has been quite a bit of line movement already since the odds were released back in June.

(February 23rd 2024): The Celtics (+260) have seen their NBA Championship futures odds drop again, as they keep winning. Boston are the best team in the NBA. The Celtics are 26-3 at home. The Nuggets (+475), Clippers (+500) and Bucks (+700) all have NBA Championship futures odds below +1000. The Timberwolves (+2200) are still getting no respect despite still leading the Western Conference. The Suns (+1300) have drifted a bit and could turn it on in the NBA playoffs. Cleveland (+3000) are second in the East and play amazing defense. There could be an opportunity in the playoffs to hedge bets on Minny and Cleveland, as they both have really high odds to win the 2024 NBA Championship.

(January 1st 2024): The Celtics (+340) are favored on NBA Championship futures, but the Bucks (+425) and Nuggets (+450) are also top contenders to win the title in 2024. The Suns (+1000), 76ers (+1100) and Clippers (+1200) are all contenders, but there’s a lot of basketball to play. Can Bradley Beal get healthy before the NBA playoffs? Will a contender make a move before the trade deadline to improve their roster? One of the biggest surprises in NBA Championship futures has been the Timberwolves (+1800) who opened up at +7500 during the offseason. The Timberwolves have the best record in the West (24-8), but will they continue winning at this rate the rest of the season?

The NBA Season Is Underway

(November 1st 2023): The NBA season has started and we have an NBA futures 2023 update. There has been some NBA futures 2023 line movement at the top. The Celtics (+390) are now favored to win. The Bucks (+400), Nuggets (+500) and Suns (+700) round out the top four on the NBA Championship futures list. The Heat have gone from +900 to +2800 after a slow start to the season.

Harden to Clippers changes NBA Championship Futures
Harden to Clippers changes NBA Championship Futures

The Clippers traded for James Harden and their 2024 NBA Championship futures odds have dropped to +1200. The Celtics and Nuggets have been the best teams to start the season, but we’ll have to see how the Clippers look once Harden starts playing. The Mavericks (+2500) have started the season 3-0 and could be a sleeper in the West. We’ll be back soon with our next NBA futures 2023 update.

(August 14th 2023): The Nuggets (+475), Celtics (+500) and Suns (+650) have seen their odds shorten. The biggest market mover has been the Miami Heat (+1800 to +900) during the offseason.

(June 12th 2023): The Denver Nuggets (+500) open up as the favorite to win the 2024 NBA title, with the Boston Celtics (+550), Milwaukee Bucks (+650) and Phoenix Suns (+850) following close behind.

NBA Championship Betting Trends

Here are some NBA Championship betting trends to help guide you to picking a winner:

  • Fade the Favorite: The offseason NBA Championship futures odds leader has gone on to win the title in just three of the last ten seasons, which doesn’t bode well for the Nuggets.
  • #1 Seeds Perform Well: For those that bet NBA Championship futures after the regular season is over, a #1 seed has won the title in eight of the last 14 basketball seasons.
  • Western Conference Dominance: A team in the Western Conference has won 16 of the last 24 NBA titles, including seven of the last ten seasons. The West won the title in 2022 and 2023.
  • Are Dynasties Over?: The Warriors dominated the NBA between 2015-19. They made the NBA finals in all five seasons and won three NBA Championships. However, in the last five seasons, we’ve seen a different team win each year (Raptors, Lakers, Bucks, Warriors and Nuggets).
Nuggets beat Heat to lead NBA Championship Futures in 2023
Nuggets beat Heat to lead NBA Championship Futures in 2023

Past NBA Championship Winners

Here are the past ten NBA Championship winners:

  • 2023: Denver Nuggets (+1800)
  • 2022: Golden State Warriors (+1200)
  • 2021: Milwaukee Bucks (+550)
  • 2020: Los Angeles Lakers (+400)
  • 2019: Toronto Raptors (+5500)
  • 2018: Golden State Warriors (-175)
  • 2017: Golden State Warriors (-125)
  • 2016: Cleveland Cavaliers (+270)
  • 2015: Golden State Warriors (+2000)
  • 2014: San Antonio Spurs (+1000)

*Odds in brackets are the team’s offseason odds to win the NBA Championship that year.

Only three NBA Championship offseason favorites have gone on to win the title (Warriors in 2017/2018 and Cavaliers in 2016). Five of the last ten winners have had odds at or above +1000. The Raptors were the biggest longshot, but their odds dropped to +2600 after they traded for Kawhi Leonard.

2024 NBA Championship Futures Picks

After analyzing the 2024 NBA Championship futures odds and historical betting trends, I’m going to share the best value plays to make during the offseason. Here are my 2024 NBA Championship futures picks:

  1. Boston Celtics (+500): We’re not going to get a better price on the Celtics than now. Boston are the best team in the East. Porzingis is exactly the type of player the Celtics needed. He’s a big man that can stretch the floor (38.5 3P% last season), which will open up lanes for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to attack the rim. This could finally be the Celtics year.
  2. Golden State Warriors (+1300): The Warriors will look to get back into the NBA Finals after they were eliminated by the Lakers in the second round of last year’s playoffs. Paul will be motivated to try and win a title before his retirement. The West is loaded with strong teams, but the Warriors have the experience to navigate the playoffs and the talent to emerge victorious.

NBA Championship FAQ

Who won the NBA Championship last season?

The Denver Nuggets won the 2023 NBA Championship.

Who has the best NBA Championship futures odds in 2024?

The Denver Nuggets have the best NBA Championship futures odds in 2024 currently at +475.

Which team has won the most NBA Championships?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics have won the most NBA titles at 17. The Celtics have been much more efficient, as they’ve made 22 appearances in the NBA Finals, while the Lakers have made 32.

Which teams haven’t won an NBA Championship?

With the Nuggets winning their first NBA title in 2023, there are now ten teams in the league that haven’t won an NBA Championship. Those ten teams are the Nets, Hornets, Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Magic, Suns, Jazz, Pelicans and Timberwolves. The Suns have the best shot at getting off this list in 2024.

When was the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy first awarded?

The first team to win the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy were the Philadelphia Warriors in 1947, as they were able to defeat the Chicago Stags 4-1 in a best-of-seven series for the NBA Championship.