Use the Kelly Criterion to Maximize Your Bets

Yes, size matters. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula related to the long-term growth of capital. It was developed by John Kelly while he worked for AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. The Kelly Criterion is a method of determining how much to invest in a given asset in order to maximize the growth of wealth over time.

The Kelly Criterion is used in sports betting. At its simplest, the Kelly Criterion is simply a way to ensure you don’t blow your bankroll. You start with a given amount. We’ll call it $1000. You will never wager more than 5 percent of your entire bankroll. In this case, you would never bet more than $50. You would wager between 1 percent ($10) and 5 percent on any given bet. That is typical of professional sports bettors.

The Kelly Criterion takes things a step further. As your bankroll grows, so does the unit size. For example, If you place a $10 bet and win, your bankroll will grow. Now, you may have $1010. According to the Kelly Criterion, your next bet of 1 percent of your bankroll should be $10.10.

The opposite happens when you lose. As you lose bets, the Kelly Criterion accounts for that and the size of a betting unit drops. If you had lost your first $10 bet, you would have a bankroll of $990. Your next one unit bet would stake $9.90 instead of $10. Using the Kelly Criterion is a very interesting and rewarding way of managing a sports bettor’s bankroll.

How Handicappers Use the Kelly Criterion

If you want a lesson in how to use the Kelly Criterion, look no further than our own Sports Hub handicappers. These guys take great care in managing their money. Most will use one bet size and that’s it. A few will grade their picks and may use two unit sizes.

Regardless, our Sports Hub cappers are great at what they do. They are the big reason why all bettors should have a Sports Hub account. It’s the only way to access handicappers like William Taylor and the Sports Hub Insider, both of which were in yesterday’s Top 5.

Let’s take a look at our top guys from yesterday.

• Sports Central: Sports Central went 6-2 yesterday and won $516 to claim the top spot on the leaderboard. You might want to ride SC’s hot streak. They’ve got nine picks in the system for tonight.
• Lou Diamond: It was two-and-out for Lou Diamond. Two picks, $425, and a big smile. Lou picked two big moneyline underdogs and rode them home for the win last night. 
• Scott’s Picks: Scott has been here before. Last night, he dialed up four wins on five picks and profited $390.
• Sports Hub Insider: The Insider used its contacts to go 3-0 yesterday and win $338. The Insider hit on the Brewers as a +138 dog to go up $493 for the last three days.
• William Taylor: Willy T also went 3-0 and added $317 in profits to his bankroll. He hit all three MLB picks, including a rare plus-money pick on the Marlins who upset the Cubs. Willy is now up $814 for the week.

Youngster Has Great Weekend on Korn Ferry Tour

What did you do this weekend, son? Well, I played golf against some of the best in the world and finished in the Top 20. That was how young Miles Russell spent his weekend. The Milwaukee Bucks proved that they can be pretty good even when their best player is not on the floor and, speaking of golf, the best player in the world is likely to wrap up another win later today.

Let’s check out what’s trending in sports today.

• Bucks set the tone: Damian Lillard scored 35 points, all in the first half, as Milwaukee opened its series with Indiana with a 109-94 victory. Khris Middleton added 23 as the Bucks won without leading scorer Giannis Antetokounmpo.
• 15-year-old on Korn Ferry Tour: Miles Russell is just 15 years old. Over the weekend, he tied for 20th place at the Lecom Suncoast Classic. Russell became the youngest player to ever make the cut on the Korn Ferry Tour. He shot a final round 66 to tie for 20th.

• Scheffler leads again: Master champion Scottie Scheffler has been on fire so far this season. He leads the RBC Heritage heading into today’s finish. Play was suspended because of rain. Scheffler has a five-stroke lead.
• Ohtani establishes homer mark: With his 176th home run yesterday in a 10-0 win over the Mets, Ohtani now has the most MLB homers by a Japanese-born player.

Mondays Make Money

It’s a Monday, but it’s a solid Monday. We’ve got basketball and hockey playoffs and 10 games on the MLB schedule. There are plenty of opportunities to use the Kelly Criterion to maximize our bankroll tonight.

Here’s what’s on tap.

1. NBA playoffs: Bettors have three chances to use the Kelly criterion tonight. Orlando is in Cleveland once again. The Knicks host the Sixers and Denver is at home against the Lakers. All three home teams won Game 1. The Thunder won’t play again until Wednesday in Game 2 of their series against New Orleans.

2. NHL playoffs: There are four NHL games tonight. Boston and Carolina both have 1-0 leads on Toronto and the New York Islanders, respectively. Dallas hosts Vegas and Edmonton is at home against Los Angeles as those two series get underway tonight.
3. Monday MLB: There are 10 MLB games today. The Chicago White Sox are in Minnesota to take on the Twins in a game that will be broadcast by FS1 at 7:40 p.m. You can also catch the Mets and Giants on ESPN+ at 9:45 p.m. ET.
4. Lull after the soccer storm: After a big weekend full of top-tier soccer, we get two matches in Italy’s Serie A and one in Spain’s LaLiga. 
5. Mutua Madrid Open: The Madrid Open begins today with qualifying rounds for both the men and women. Novak Djokovic will not play in Madrid and will focus on preparing for Rome on May 7. On the women’s side, Simona Halep has withdrawn from the Madrid Open. She says she needs more time to prepare after being off for the last 18 months.

That’s it for this Monday. Be sure to consult the Sports Hub members area for today’s best picks. If you would like to learn more about the Kelly Criterion, come back to Sports Hub for more content on the topic from our expert handicappers.