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Scheffler & McIlroy Head the Board, but Bettors Split on a Challenger
Scottie Scheffler (+450) and Rory McIlroy (+750) are once again dueling for pre‑tournament supremacy. DraftKings reports Scheffler leads in ticket count (11 percent), while McIlroy narrowly tops handle (11 percent to Scheffler’s 10). At BetMGM the split is wider: Scheffler commands 15.7 percent of the money, McIlroy 12.1. Public consensus? A two‑horse race—unless one of the LIV heavyweights or a red‑hot long‑shot catches fire. Before you lay chalk, revisit the risk calculus in How to Bet on Golf.
The LIV Pair Lurking: Rahm & DeChambeau
Jon Rahm (8 percent of handle at DraftKings) and Bryson DeChambeau sit in the +1600 to +1800 pocket across most books. Rahm’s track record on firm, linksy turf (T2 at St. George’s in 2021) backs the support, while DeChambeau’s 340‑yard drives tailor‑made for Royal Portrush’s four reachable par‑4s explain the rest. Their presence siphons just enough money to keep Scheffler and McIlroy from runaway liability status.
Mid‑Tier Darlings: Hovland & Fleetwood
Viktor Hovland (+3000) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2800) each capture roughly 6 percent of the DraftKings handle. Hovland’s ball‑striking metrics scream “due”—he’s gained at least 1.5 strokes tee‑to‑green in seven consecutive majors. Fleetwood, fresh off a playoff loss at the Travelers, has three Open top‑5s. If you fancy plus‑money top‑10 props instead, see the hedging tactics in Line‑Movement Deep Dive.
Ludvig Åberg: Bookmakers’ Liability, Bettors’ Enigma
Despite MCs at the last two majors, Åberg (+3000) ranks third in BetMGM liability—6.5 percent of money, 4 percent of tickets—thanks to elite driving and a T8 at the Scottish Open. Books fear a St. Andrews‑style bombing, bettors fear two‑way miss irons. High‑variance profiles like Åberg’s are a textbook case for fractional‑stake outrights paired with head‑to‑head fades—outlined in Bankroll Management 101.\
Signed, sealed, delivered ✉️@MarieBouzkova claims her spot in the Prague semifinals, defeating Li 3-6, 6-3, 6-3!#LivesportPragueOpen pic.twitter.com/Anjg0aNLE1
— wta (@WTA) July 24, 2025
Long‑Shot Radar: Fitzpatrick & Penge
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500) — Back‑to‑back top‑10s (T8/T4) signal the former U.S. Open champ’s putter is heating. His low‑launch driving penetrates coastal wind; approach play has gained 8+ strokes over two events.
- Marco Penge (+12500) — The Englishman vaulted 78 world‑ranking spots after a T2 in Scotland. Early bettors grabbed 200/1; he’s drawn minimal handle (0.3 percent) but sliced his odds in half—proof sharp money doesn’t always follow volume.
Forgotten Defender: Xander Schauffele (+2500)
Last year’s champion owns just 3 percent of DraftKings money and sits ninth in BetMGM tickets. Winless in 2025, Schauffele still ranks top‑5 in strokes‑gained total this season. He knows it:
“If I can get myself in the mix, that’s the edge I lean on.”
Experience as a closer can’t be quantified by public splits—value hunters should remember how often the defending champ drifts on price. For sizing a “quiet contender” stake, skim Straight‑Bet Advantages.
Betting Board Snapshot (DraftKings)
| Player | Odds | % Handle | Key Angle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 | 10 % | Leads TOUR in SG:Tee‑to‑Green every start since February |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 | 11 % | 1st in SG:Off‑the‑Tee last 24 rounds |
| Jon Rahm | +1600 | 8 % | Career 70.1 scoring avg. in UK majors |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 | 6 % | Seven straight majors gaining ≥1.5 SG:T2G |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2800 | 6 % | Three Open top‑5s, elite wind player |
Handle totals remind us popularity doesn’t equal profitability. Whether you follow the chalk, dabble mid‑tier or chase the next J.J. Spaun, stick to disciplined unit sizes—and enjoy links golf’s ultimate unpredictability.
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