Week 13 NFL Futures Report

Updated:

We have just five weeks left of the 2023 NFL regular season and so we are discussing Week 13 NFL futures here at Sports Hub. It’s make or break time and it’s time to place your futures bets!

Despite the Baltimore Ravens and the Philadelphia Eagles leading the AFC and NFC respectively, they are not the favorites to win the Super Bowl or their conferences. Which teams are set for success in 2023? 

We also take a look at player futures in my Week 13 NFL Futures Report. Could a non-QB actually win MVP? Or will it go to the new market leader? Let’s find out all the latest updates in Week 13 NFL futures!

Week 13 NFL Futures – Top Markets 

I selected six markets to analyze during my weekly NFL futures reports at the start of the season. That included both Defensive and Offensive Rookie of the Year awards. However, I have decided to take a look at both Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards instead in recent weeks. 

Take a look at the full list of markets I will be examining in Week 13 NFL futures:

  • Super Bowl Winner 
  • AFC Champion
  • NFC Champion
  • MVP 
  • Offensive Player of the Year
  • Defensive Player of the Year

Super Bowl Winner

We haven’t seen much change in odds for teams to go on and win Super Bowl LVIII. The top-ten contenders remain the same, just with slight price changes. Take a look at how the odds looked for the top-ten candidates after Week 12:

  • San Francisco 49ers (+350)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+425)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+460)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+750)
  • Miami Dolphins (+800)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+900)
  • Detroit Lions (+1400)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+1600)
  • Buffalo Bills (+4000)
  • Houston Texans (+6000)

Everything went right for the San Francisco 49ers during Week 13. They dismantled NFC rivals the Eagles 42-19 in Philly and then the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the in-form Green Bay Packers 27-19. The Niners are now strong favorites to win the Super Bowl. 

Below you can see the updated odds after Week 13: 

  • San Francisco 49ers (+310)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+500)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+650)
  • Miami Dolphins (+700)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+900)
  • Detroit Lions (+1600)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000)
  • Buffalo Bills (+3500)
  • Houston Texans (+4500)

The Ravens were on bye during Week 13 but they still lead the AFC. They have the same record as the Miami Dolphins (9-3). The Fins proved just how dominant their offense is last Sunday as they scored 45 points on the Washington Commanders. 

AFC Champions

Have you considered who will win the AFC this season? Here are the odds for the top-five contenders after Week 12:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+185)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+350)
  • Miami Dolphins (+350)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)
  • Cleveland Browns (+2400)

In spite of the Chiefs’ woes, they remain favorites to win the AFC. The Ravens have an incredibly tough schedule to end the regular season, including matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Niners, Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Therefore, Kansas City leads the market. They have a far easier schedule in the works and so still lead the AFC champion market in Week 13 NFL futures. 

How have the odds for the AFC champion changed after Week 13? Here’s an update: 

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+220)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+275)
  • Miami Dolphins (+300)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+1000)
  • Houston Texans (+2200)

The Jags and the Texans complete the top-five candidates. Jacksonville has the same record as the Chiefs (8-4), whilst Houston are at 7-5. With the records being so close, we can still find value with these two contenders. 

NFC Champions 

Week 13 NFL futures will now analyze the odds for the NFC champion. Let’s recap how the odds looked for the top-five contenders after Week 12: 

  • Philadelphia Eagles (+190)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+190)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+400)
  • Detroit Lions (+700)
  • Seattle Seahawks (+3400)

Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey went off against the Eagles during Week 13. Despite Philly having the best record in football (10-2), the oddsmakers have the 49ers as favorites to win the NFC. If San Francisco can keep their stars healthy, it seems unlikely that they won’t go on to win the conference. 

Here you can find the updated prices for the top-five after Week 13: 

  • San Francisco 49ers (+150)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+250)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+425)
  • Detroit Lions (+750)
  • Green Bay Packers (+3500)

The Packers are one of the most in form teams in the NFL. They have won four of their last five games and have beaten top contenders in back-to-back weeks in the Detroit Lions and the Chiefs. Jordan Love has blossomed of late, too, so Green Bay could certainly be a dark horse down the stretch. 

MVP

It’s time now for my Week 13 NFL Futures Report to investigate the odds for the predominant futures market – MVP. The MVP race has been shaken up massively from Week 12 to Week 13. Below is a recap of the odds after Week 12: 

  • Jalen Hurts (+150) QB Philadelphia Eagles
  • Patrick Mahomes (+380) QB Kansas City Chiefs
  • Dak Prescott (+400) QB Dallas Cowboys
  • Lamar Jackson (+450) QB Baltimore Ravens
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+900) QB Miami Dolphins
  • Brock Purdy (+1300) QB San Francisco 49ers
  • C.J. Stroud (+2000) QB Houston Texans 
  • Christian McCaffrey (+2500) RB San Francisco 49ers
  • Trevor Lawrence (+3000) QB Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Josh Allen (+3500) QB Buffalo Bills

The Niners’ vehement victory over the Eagles has changed futures markets massively. Brock Purdy has now become the favorite to win MVP, seeing his price cut from +1300 to +300. He threw four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the win over Philly, completing over 70% of his passes. 

Nevertheless, it seems as though it is going to be an interesting battle between Purdy, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts to win the award. However, there is still plenty of time for things to change and we could find some good value by taking a look at some longer odds candidates. 

You can find the latest odds after Week 13 here:

  • Brock Purdy (+300) QB San Francisco 49ers
  • Dak Prescott (+325) QB Dallas Cowboys
  • Jalen Hurts (+350) QB Philadelphia Eagles
  • Lamar Jackson (+800) QB Baltimore Ravens
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+850) QB Miami Dolphins
  • Patrick Mahomes (+850) QB Kansas City Chiefs
  • Tyreek Hill (+1400) WR Miami Dolphins
  • C.J. Stroud (+2500) QB Houston Texans 
  • Christian McCaffrey (+2800) RB San Francisco 49ers
  • Josh Allen (+4000) QB Buffalo Bills

There has been a lot of controversy this season in terms of the MVP award. Players such as Tyreek Hill have now entered the conversation and appear to be more deserving of the award than somebody like Purdy. Cheetah is on track to have an incredible +2000 yard receiving season. 

Offensive Player of the Year & Defensive Player of the Year

Rookie Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year awards seem to already be confirmed. C.J. Stroud is as short as -9000 to win OROY, whilst Jalen Carter is the clear market leader for DROY. 

As a result, I have now started to analyze the odds for OPOY and DPOY. Here are the latest odds for both markets in Week 13 NFL futures: 

OPOY

  • Tyreek Hill (-200) WR Miami Dolphins 
  • Christian McCaffrey (+150) RB San Francisco 49ers
  • Ceedee Lamb (+2500) WR Dallas Cowboys 
  • A.J. Brown (+2500) WR Philadelphia Eagles 
  • Jalen Hurts (+5000) QB Philadelphia Eagles 

Hill has been that good this season that he has now entered the race to win MVP. It seems incredibly unlikely that a non-QB will win MVP, but Hill is having the sort of season that is deserving of making an exception to the rule over the past decade. 

Cheetah already has 1,481 receiving yards in 2023 and still has five games to play. He has had three successive 100+ yard receiving games and could break the record for most receiving yards in a season. The current record was set by Calvin Johnson as he had 1,964 yards in 2012. That was the same year that running back Adrian Peterson won MVP – the last time a non-QB won the award. 

DPOY

  • Micah Parsons (+120) LB Dallas Cowboys 
  • Myles Garrett (+175) DE Cleveland Browns 
  • T.J. Watt (+320) LB Pittsburgh Steelers 
  • DaRon Bland (+1500) CB Dallas Cowboys 
  • Josh Allen (+2500) LB Jacksonville Jaguars

Micah Parsons has overtaken Myles Garrett as the favorite to win DPOY from Week 12 to Week 13. Parsons currently just edges Garrett in terms of defensive PFF grade this year. However, Garrett is marginally ahead of the Cowboys linebacker in terms of his pass rushing grade. 

Nevertheless, it is T.J. Watt that leads the sack race out of the top-five candidates. He now has 14 sacks on the year, whilst Garrett has 13, Parsons has 11.5 and Josh Allen has 13.5. Allen has now entered the top-five and could be a good value pick.